Surfing google I came across this article entitled "bad news for peak oil desciples". I never really saw myself as a "disciple" of the peak oil
theory, rather somebody who sees no real evidence that there are sustainable crude oil reserves left in the United States for energy independence.
Nevertheless the article alludes to a number of new oil reserves discovered around the world that stacks up against the theory of peak oil:
A great example is the Bakken oil play in North Dakota, which is forecast to produce one million barrels per day by the end of the decade, up from
the current level of 500,000 barrels and the mere 60,000 just five years ago. Plays such as this have resulted in total U.S. oil production setting
new highs while domestic demand is still at 2008 recessionary levels. Consequently, refined products last year were the largest component of U.S.
exports, which hasn’t happened since the 1940s.
The USG estimates that there could be as much as 4.3 billion barrels of crude oil in the Brakken oil fields. If we're talking about producing 1
million barrels a day (assuming, and this is a big if, this crude is going to to the American consumer only) that oil field will be depleted in 15
years. It will certainly be nice to have homemade crude pumped to American owned vehicles, but long term this isn't happening:
Remember, the United States consumes more than 18 million barrels of crude oil a day.
Further down the article:
Similar developments are happening all over the globe. A story this month in Forbes highlighted a massive oil field in Western Siberia called
Bazhenov, which is estimated to cover 2.3 million square kilometers — the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico combined. This field would be 80
times the size of the Bakken play, the article states.
Bazhenov holds a significant amount of oil shale
reserves, not crude
oil but oil shale
, the two are different:
But as great as the Bakken is, I learned last week about another oil shale play that dwarfs it. It’s called The Bazhenov. It’s in
Western Siberia, in Russia. And while the Bakken is big, the Bazhenov — according to a report last week by Sanford Bernstein’s lead international
oil analyst Oswald Clint — “covers 2.3 million square kilometers or 570 million acres, which is the size of Texas and the Gulf of Mexico
combined.” This is 80 times bigger than the Bakken.
Crude oil accounts for 75% of energy consumption along with gas and coal:
Shale oil (otherwise known as Kerogen) is an alternative non-renewable energy. It was pimped as a viable alternative to crude oil in the later 70’s
by none other than Jimmy Carter, so I find it ironic that may contrarians, most of whom are on the rightwing, promote this particular alternative
source without knowing it’s an alternative unconventional oil in the first place.
I get the contrarians over their scepticism concerning peak oil, because there isn’t really a shortage of oil out there in general. It’s important
that we define what we mean by peak oil and in what context we apply it to. While there may still be trillions of barrels worth of oil still locked up
out there, the availability of crude oil
reserves in particular, our staple energy, is in question. 40 years ago the majority of our crude was
sourced from local domestic sources, these days the majority is foreign sourced and it’s been on the decline:
Fact is, we haven’t been able to find any new viable crude reserves that will lift us from our dependence on foreign nations. There just aren't
any, just afew reserves left to last us for another decade or two without heavy dependence on other nations.