Ron Paul will not win the nomination. The only way he could win is for him to pick up every single one of the remaining 770 delegates to be chosen,
PLUS somehow get both Santorum's and Gingrich's delegates for himself. Given where he stands now that would put him 22 delegates over the required
1144. Romney needs less than 300 more delegates to win. Paul needs over 1,000.
Paul does very well in caucus states because his people are very well organized. Paul DOES NOT do well in primary states where people actually get to
vote. So far he has earned about 11% of the votes. Some of the primaries coming up are big, such as California. All Paul has to do is lose one and
he's through.
Outkast Searcher has
a thread right here that explains the issue in depth,
including the issue of bound and unbound delegates.
This post here gives a
similar accounting.
Paul's supporters attempt to explain this away with accounting methods that would make Enron's accountants look like choirboys. Technically Romney
isn't there yet, so they have this forelorn hope that everything, literally everything will go Paul's way -- from now on. They like to say that
everyone who is keeping track, from WSJ to the green papers, is completely wrong and misleading. They count states as "won" that haven't even had
their state conventions yet. And they'll lie and cheat to get their way. One happy supporter said, "Romney beat Paul by 13% in the popular vote, but
Paul got over 50% of the delegates!" Wow, sure sounds fair to me. I don't know which election he was talking about.
I've seen these folks in action. They aren't civilized. The interrupt conventions by shouting from the floor. Their whole modus operandi is one of
disruption and sowing confusion. If they can take over a state convention with sleight of hand, they'll do it in a second. They think if they just
shout louder, they'll win. I've seen it in action and it feels like a mob mentality.
The fact is that Paul's popular vote of 11% is doing less well than most third-party candidates. (Yes, I know he's currently running as a GOP) Ross
Perot got over 18% of the actual vote in 1992. George Wallace got 14% in 1968. In other words, Paul doesn't have a snowball's chance in getting the
nomination. Everyone knows it except for Paul's supporters.
It'll be a few weeks yet, but prepare for a round of "I told you so's" directed at Paul supporters. Of course, by then they'll be saying Paul was
"cheated" out of the nomination. That's to be expected of this crowd. delusional til the end.
