Unemployment is not 8.3 percent -- it’s 15.1 percent

Unemployment is not 8.3 percent -- it’s 15.1 percent
by Donald Lambro
04/02/2012 -- Human Events


The U.S. Department of Labor provides the unemployment statistics.

But do they use "selective" reporting ?

Do they "Omit" some data ?

The article delves into some of these questions.

And it seems that many people do not realize that the statistics are actually telephone surveys,
conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

One unassailable fact continues to give Barack Obama and his top campaign strategists political nightmares. No president has won re- election since the Great Depression when the unemployment rate was more than 8 percent.

Despite all of the data-twisting hoopla from the White House and their compliant allies in the news media, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment rate remains at 8.3 percent, which is nothing to write home about.

But, dig a little deeper among the unemployed, and you will find that the real-honest-to-God national jobless rate is much higher than that because it includes numbers BLS leaves out of its employment equation.

BUT

It didn't make the nightly newscasts or most newspaper reports, but BLS reported in January that "working age adults not participating in the labor force--those neither employed nor looking for work -- increased by 88,000."

AND

The nightly network news ballyhooed the 243,000 new jobs that were created in January, but what they did not report was that 1.2 million discouraged workers had simply dropped out of the workforce, Ferrara reported.

But they were not counted among the unemployed because they had ceased looking for a job and that sent the unemployment rate down.

Pretty clever, huh?

All of these workers, discouraged drop-outs and the so-called "underemployed" forced to work part-time or temp jobs, pushes the real jobless unemployment rate to 15.1 percent.

Here is the Dept of Labor website.

Please read the info they have !!!!!


Where do the statistics come from?

Early each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor announces the total number of employed and unemployed persons in the United States for the previous month, along with many characteristics of such persons. These figures, particularly the unemployment rate—which tells you the percent of the labor force that is unemployed—receive wide coverage in the media.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

Other people think that the Government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long. Besides, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker come to their homes every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities....


There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)

BLS website

Does it matter? I'm not worried about statistics so much as I'm worried about the concept of the system in the first place. Think about that, instead of meaningless numbers.

Originally posted by NthOther
Does it matter? I'm not worried about statistics so much as I'm worried about the concept of the system in the first place. Think about that, instead of meaningless numbers.

Actually, I tend to agree !

If things were being handled the right way, it truly wouldn't matter !

When people are fully working and able to live right as individuals, the government
hoopla is meaningless.

reply to post by xuenchen


"real" unemployment sits at around 20%.

At the current rate of job growth (approx 240,000 per month) we are actually raising the unemployment because that's not fast enough to even cover the "new worker" growth (that is, the age of population that annually attains the age of 16 and actively looks for jobs and the total amount of college graduates (that we assume must be looking for jobs)) **and growth in immigration**

So right there, at the average job growth rate, it's literally impossible for the jobless rate to decline since, technically, it would have to rise. In order to see a steady decline in the real unemployment rate we would need to see 400,000+ jobs per month.

www.shadowstats.com...

U6 unemployment (Governments official "broad" count of unemployed peoples) is at 15% .. Shadowstats uses the same method of unemployment calculation that we used several decades ago .. it includes "new" workers that never even make it into the job market (new college grads for instance) that isn't even counted by U6 .. it's at 23ish%


(a more interesting look at real unemployment)

www.shadowstats.com...

These charts (on my phone or I would post them myself!) show total US Tax Deposits .. if you look, year over year, the Federal Government is posting significant losses in tax gains.. why?

Because real, high paying, middle class jobs are being shaved from the economy at an alarming rate.. while there is a massive surge in minimum wage and temporary jobs.

So we can post huge employment gains..

And see tax revenue drop year over year.

How bout them apples? Still believe in the recovery? always remember this: Never ... EVER .. trust the government.

reply to post by xuenchen


You are comparing the u6 to the u3. Both of which are lowing.

U3(Which is official)

portalseven.com...

U6(which includes part timers and such)

portalseven.com...

For our citizens in this country need to be shocked into action, the reality of our current situation must be know. Until that happens those in power will continue this dog and pony show, and America will continue to decline. But if you get the people pissed off enough they will demand change and they will get it. Because people will rise to do what need to be done. But until this occurs we are in deep #.

The reason Unemployment numbers keep dropping i simple. They do not count you once you exaust your unemployment. It happened to me and I am still unemployed. The official numbers are clsoe to 20 percent if you count it this way. Some people just give up claiming after 6 weeks or so because employers tend to think you suck after that. Everytime i see the POTUS up there saying the numbers i wish someone would hit him with a heavy shoe.

Too right never ever believe anything the Government tells you especially when it comes to numbers.

Creative Government accounting jobs were created etc but a job created in 2008 is that job still around 3 years later.

I seem to remember Solyndra "created jobs" but they went bankrupt along with a crapload of others.

Originally posted by JBRiddle
For our citizens in this country need to be shocked into action, the reality of our current situation must be know. Until that happens those in power will continue this dog and pony show, and America will continue to decline. But if you get the people pissed off enough they will demand change and they will get it. Because people will rise to do what need to be done. But until this occurs we are in deep #.

Wait a minute! We got 'Hope and Change' when Obama was elected. Remember?

Originally posted by americanbuffalo1

Originally posted by JBRiddle
For our citizens in this country need to be shocked into action, the reality of our current situation must be know. Until that happens those in power will continue this dog and pony show, and America will continue to decline. But if you get the people pissed off enough they will demand change and they will get it. Because people will rise to do what need to be done. But until this occurs we are in deep #.

Wait a minute! We got 'Hope and Change' when Obama was elected. Remember?

Plenty.

Instructions for sweeping change


Instructions for new job hopes

I bet another trick they use is when one person works two measly parttime jobs they count it as two employed people. Those rascals will have their time.

This is a classic example of the Emperor’s New Clothes....

Aren't they fetching - no one wants to know the real numbers in the administration so they talk about the one they like 8.3.

I hear denial is an excellent leadership style.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by xuenchen

 

"real" unemployment sits at around 20%.

At the current rate of job growth (approx 240,000 per month) we are actually raising the unemployment because that's not fast enough to even cover the "new worker" growth (that is, the age of population that annually attains the age of 16 and actively looks for jobs and the total amount of college graduates (that we assume must be looking for jobs)) **and growth in immigration**

So right there, at the average job growth rate, it's literally impossible for the jobless rate to decline since, technically, it would have to rise. In order to see a steady decline in the real unemployment rate we would need to see 400,000+ jobs per month.

www.shadowstats.com...

U6 unemployment (Governments official "broad" count of unemployed peoples) is at 15% .. Shadowstats uses the same method of unemployment calculation that we used several decades ago .. it includes "new" workers that never even make it into the job market (new college grads for instance) that isn't even counted by U6 .. it's at 23ish%

edit on 4/4/2012 by Rockpuck because: (no reason given)

(a more interesting look at real unemployment)


www.shadowstats.com...

These charts (on my phone or I would post them myself!) show total US Tax Deposits .. if you look, year over year, the Federal Government is posting significant losses in tax gains.. why?

Because real, high paying, middle class jobs are being shaved from the economy at an alarming rate.. while there is a massive surge in minimum wage and temporary jobs.

So we can post huge employment gains..

And see tax revenue drop year over year.

How bout them apples? Still believe in the recovery? always remember this: Never ... EVER .. trust the government.

edit on 4/4/2012 by Rockpuck because: (no reason given)

edit on 4/4/2012 by Rockpuck because: Because I felt like it

Very well stated Rockpuck...STAR 4 U... and we continue to trade out all the medium income jobs for minimum wage and slightly above dead ends with little or no benefits...

Hmmm... lets see, now if one were attempting to adjust incomes so as to establish a more equal footing to sell and trade with other countries where lets say, like China maybe, where the average wage might be $4,800 per year... lets see, now how would we do that, how could we expedite that ... darn, could we move a large portion of our population into lower/minimum wage/part time type jobs lowering the overall average income and moving ourselves closer to the rest of the world... hmmmm... world trade? and in turn begin conditioning the work force to a continued process of wage stalling in the name of world trade?

Originally posted by yuppa
The reason Unemployment numbers keep dropping i simple. They do not count you once you exaust your unemployment. It happened to me and I am still unemployed.

They also don't count unemployed people like me who were never on unemployment in the first place, so the number could be higher than 20%.

Actually these statistics are very important, which is why they also lie big time about them.

Most people will pretend not to care, but officials know that really isn't the case. Our lemming mentality makes us discuss optimism and maybe even more pessimism these days, and job numbers are amongst those concerns.

If you can post low un employment numbers, you can create a zone of fake optimism that can stimulate stocks and maybe maybe production which in turn if they are lucky can stimulate population demand.

You have to remember that none of us ever see the bottom line or the middle equations of the government budgets. So as long as you settle with reading the news or watching tv, they can make you believe anything.

That is why statistics is important to them, but also to us, since we should really look at them with the greatest amount of criticism.