Could a Revitialized Africa Replace China as a Producer Of Goods? Would that tame the Dragon?

All of the recent ramp up in Chinese weapons procurment and development, not to mention thier space program, are in some part a by product of thier massive trade surplus. The surplus which was about 103 Billion in 2002 from its trade with the US alone.

Part of this is because China offers rock bottom production costs, a huge labor pool, and little in the way of government controll ie: No OSHA, environmental controlls, no medical or pension headaches etc.

But what if the Middle Kingdom was beaten by its own game? Africa has a huge labor pool, and pretty much the same conditions that China offers except right now between the infighting and the AIDS problem it cannot organize on this type of industrial issue.

Could this be the reason behind the renewed focus of the US and EU in helping Africa with AIDS drugs, prevention items, peace keeping etc? Africa could be in essence a huge colony continet from which the good flow. Too many states to get global ambitions etc. Unlike China who IMHO will not stop once it annex Taiwan by force.



[edit on 29-8-2004 by FredT]

Interesting questions poised here. I think that gov't controll is the key here. You think it's nonexistant, the control that the gov't has is to building industry. That's something that is missing in a lot of countries in Africa. Stabillity is a serious issue. Am I, as a businessman, going to look at a country that will ensure business will happen, China, or take a chance that Namibia or Rhawanda might save me a buck or two? Easy question.

Originally posted by intrepid
Interesting questions poised here. I think that gov't controll is the key here. You think it's nonexistant, the control that the gov't has is to building industry. That's something that is missing in a lot of countries in Africa. Stabillity is a serious issue. Am I, as a businessman, going to look at a country that will ensure business will happen, China, or take a chance that Namibia or Rhawanda might save me a buck or two? Easy question.

That is for sure. Im sorry i did not imply that thay was just around the corner. Far from it, They have a whole host of issues that have to be taken care of beyond food and AIDS, and government stability etc etc. But if the AIDS help is an opening salvo of the world finnaly getting serious about help for Africa, it may be a long term reality.

Africa's big problem is corruption. Depending on the country, corruption runs at a lot of levels - from the customs officer who will demand a "backsheesh" (bribe or tip) to let the goods you're importing or exporting go through, to the government officials who will often put your file on the top of the pile if you're willing to pay a bit more than the other guy... again, it depends on the country. In Benin, I was asked for a backsheesh at customs, while in Mali I wasn't, but a friend of mine was.

It's really too bad, because Africans are really inventive, can-do people who are very, very clever and dynamic. However, there is a governmental culture of corruption that is used to handouts from the West, and that gives Africa a reputation for instability when it comes to business.

Central & southern Africa has the potential to be one of the richest, most prosperous (and, most beautiful) parts of the planet. That is, if all the countries there were modern democracies that got along peacefully with each other. But... instead it's a hellhole of war, famine, disease, poverty, and dictatorships... Maybe someday things will get better there! But as to "when" is anyone's guess...

Africa has potential. I wonder why rich African Americans don't go there and invest in that country. Build factories. Invest. Build schools. etc. By investing, they can make even more billlions, perhaps trillions, and really help their homeland. Africans shouldn't have to rely on non-Africans. It's rich African-Americans like Oprah Winfrey, or Bill Cosby or Shaquille O Neal that should be doing something but I'm not sure they are. It's a shame because Africans are very intelligent, and hard working people. They have as much potential as anybody. They deserve better lives.

As to the original question raised, I think it will be very difficult to stop China's rise. They have so much inertia right now that only a major catastrophe such as a China-Taiwan war could slow down their progress. But nobody wants that war. China and USA's economies are so intertwined that both will lose. A recession for China = a recession for USA. A depression for China = depression for the world. Right now, China, and Japan are supporting USA's economy by purchasing huge amounts of dollars. Without that, USA's economy tanks big-time.



[edit on 29-8-2004 by goldenboy]

africa is a mess at the moment and I wouldn't trust my investment with such a continent and people.

IMO I think all us developed guys need to give the UN a lot more money and make them govern the entire continent to get it back on track. I know it's a big job but I don't see another way. The African governments (minus a few nations) aren't really capable of building a prosperous nation because of the awful conditions there and the way the experiences they have learnt growing up.

The problems in Africa today are the result of European colonialism.

thanks,
drfunk.

Africa could be the next middle east in terms of natural resouces.
Africa two main problems are wide sperad corruption and geography dosnt seen to favour anybody Africa appears to be made up of lots of little countries with small populations and a lack of infrastructure.

As far as infrastructrue goes, Africa has problems other than the obvious ones (political stability, plumbing & running water, electricity, cable TV/Internet, etc.). Many African nations have no official language, or official measurement system. For example, in the same African country, you can encounter 100 languages and 10 different measurement systems. Until the people in each country can decide on a standard language, and a standard measurement system (preferably the Metric system), little economic progress will be made, even once political stability finally comes about...

Personally, if I were the leader of an African nation, I'd make English my standard language everyone will speak in business and government (this will make the choice neutral, not in favor of or against any of the 100's of native languages), and make the Metric system the standard measurement system...

Why English? Well, it's basically the unofficial world language at this point (much to the chagrin of the French, I know ) -- and it would make communication with the U.S. and U.K., who are the two countries most likely to help my country out economically, easy and convienent...


[edit on 8/29/2004 by ThunderCloud]

Originally posted by ThunderCloud
Personally, if I were the leader of an African nation, I'd make English my standard language everyone will speak in business and government (this will make the choice neutral, not in favor of or against any of the 100's of native languages), and make the Metric system the standard measurement system...

No doubt this would help. Could a serious reform effort acomplish this? I think from a strategic standpoint it would be much better to look after African stability now before all of the terror organizations move there. It would take much more than a bunch of Do gooder musicians singing about the problem but a concerted effort by the US and the EU or dare I say the UN could effect the change.

Heh, revitalized Africa? Doubt it, they were never really on the top. They have enough troubles with AIDS and such. The majority of the population lives in poverty. The US refuses to help. Therefore, there will be no revitalization as far as I'm concerned :\.

If Europe harvested their resources as was the case during the Imperial Ages, then yes they might be able to win. But I can tell you the Africans won't allow for another European colonization.

Originally posted by Blackout
If Europe harvested their resources as was the case during the Imperial Ages, then yes they might be able to win. But I can tell you the Africans won't allow for another European colonization.

No colonization would not work. Im talking about a Marshall Plan Lite as it were. Get enough countries stable enough to build a manufacturing base, allow the standard of living to rise etc. There could be several benifits:
1) Eliminate yet another place for Bin ladens Merry bunch to hide
2) Diversify our supplier base and make us less dependant on China for cheap goods
3) Keep Sally Struthers off of TV!!! The best benifit IMHO