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At least you have a 3,200:1 chance of being right. My money's on you.
Originally posted by WhoDat09
LOL I think that is right. I don't think anyone is going to get hit by space junk, well let's hope not anyway!!
Originally posted by ignorant_ape
reply to post by woogleuk
if you disagree with NASA`s claim to title - explain why it is incorrect
I'd say another case of lies, damn lies and statistics! If there were a million UARs reentering there would not be a chance of one.
Originally posted by Phage
How about this:
If there were 3,200 UARS reentering, one person on Earth would be hit by debris. For sure.
Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by getreadyalready
What makes you think maritime law applies?
In any case, maritime law does not say "finders keepers". In the case of shipwrecks, the wreck belongs to the original owner or, if an insurance settlement has been made, it belongs to the insurance underwriters.
In the case of a military wreck, the wreckage remains the property of the government.
• The odds of becoming a lightning victim in the U.S. in any one year is 1 in 700,000. The odds of being struck in your lifetime is 1 in 3,000.
It is established in the United States as well as in England that ownership
of derelict goods is not in issue unless the original owner has abandoned
his tide to the property. It is equally well established that owners of sunken or derelict vessels may abandon them so effectively as to divest themselves completely of title. But where the claims of the original owner are not in issue, and the contest is between sovereign and finder, American courts have consistently held contrary to the British rule, subordinating sovereign rights to those of the finder who obtains title by occupancy.
Martin J. Norris, in his authoritative text, The Law of Salvage, 3 presents
an entirely different approach to the question of ownership which
favors neither state nor finder. He expresses the opinion that the owner
of property lost at sea is never divested of his title, the salvor merely
obtains a possessory salvage lien."4 He believes state courts should not
handle such cases, and that all abandoned property "should rightfully
operate under the protection and guidance of our admiralty courts." 11
His theory has not, however, won acceptance.
Another case similarly held that once the true owner abandoned his
property and relinquished ownership he could not reclaim title from the
It is established in the United States as well as in England that ownership of derelict goods is not in issue unless the original owner has abandoned his title to the property.
Originally posted by alfa1
Originally posted by Signals
Am I reading this right?
No, you're not reading it right.
The thread title...On 9/23/11 You Have a 1 in 3200 Chance of Being Killed By Space Debris... is wrong.
A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1:3200. means that there is that risk of *anyone at all* on earth being killed.
But there are 7 billion people, so for you to be that particular specific unlucky one is a 1 in 7 billion chance.
Mutiplied by the improbability of 3200,
specific individual chance of being killed, is a tiny 1 in 22400 billion.
Originally posted by Ozzealander
AND the odds of UARS hitting you 3200/1.
Not sure wether to buy a Lotto ticket or Place a bet on someone getting hit?.
UARS could land anywhere between 57 degrees north and 57 degrees south of the equator - most of the populated world.
The 1 in 3,200 risk to public safety is higher than the 1 in 10,000 limit that Nasa aims for.
Mark Matney, a scientist with Nasa's Orbital Debris Program Office, told Space.com that there was "always a concern". But, he added: "Populated areas are a small fraction of the Earth's surface. Much of the Earth's surface has either no people or very few people. We believe that the risk is very modest."