On 9/23/11 You Have a 1 in 3200 Chance of Being Killed By Space Debris???

REENTRY ALERT: NASA reports that UARS, an atmospheric research satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Sept. 23, plus or minus one day. Not all of the spectacularly-disintegrating spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere; debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. Because of the rapid evolution of UARS's decaying orbit, the location of the debris zone is not yet known. A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1:3200. For last-chance sightings of UARS, check the Simple Satellite Tracker or download the Satellite Flybys app for your smartphone.

Seems like a pretty high chance of being bonked in the head by satellite parts from space...

Am I reading this right?

spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by Signals

REENTRY ALERT: NASA reports that UARS, an atmospheric research satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Sept. 23, plus or minus one day. Not all of the spectacularly-disintegrating spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere; debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. Because of the rapid evolution of UARS's decaying orbit, the location of the debris zone is not yet known. A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1:3200. For last-chance sightings of UARS, check the Simple Satellite Tracker or download the Satellite Flybys app for your smartphone.

Seems like a pretty high chance of being bonked in the head by satellite parts from space...

Am I reading this right?

spaceweather.com...

Yea those odds aren't so hot. Hopefully a few hours before impact they can pinpoint exactly where it will land and they can at least evacuate people in the area but I mean it could land in ohio and debris could hit me here in michigan. not the safest thing.

Originally posted by Signals

REENTRY ALERT: NASA reports that UARS, an atmospheric research satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Sept. 23, plus or minus one day. Not all of the spectacularly-disintegrating spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere; debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. Because of the rapid evolution of UARS's decaying orbit, the location of the debris zone is not yet known. A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1:3200. For last-chance sightings of UARS, check the Simple Satellite Tracker or download the Satellite Flybys app for your smartphone.

Seems like a pretty high chance of being bonked in the head by satellite parts from space...

Am I reading this right?

spaceweather.com...

Great, providing you don't get killed. Injury = court action = pay out

It is unclear to me if they mean a 1:3200 chance of hitting a human somewhere on the planet or if they mean there is a 1:3200 chance that it will hit you or me. If that is the case then thousands of people will be hit. If not then your title is very misleading.

1:3,200 of someone being hit.
1:22,080,000,000,000 (3,200 x 6,900,000,000 [current world population estimate]) of it being you.

LOL I think that is right. I don't think anyone is going to get hit by space junk, well let's hope not anyway!!

reply to post by abecedarian


That math makes me feel better

To the other poster, title not meant to be misleading, just making sure I read this article correctly...

reply to post by Signals


I'm gonna cruch those numbers and play them in the Lotto.

Of course, with my recent string of bad luck, I will get squashed by a fuel tank and the only thing left will be my arm stickin' out holding the winning ticket.

So in a city of a million 1000's will get hit.

reply to post by Signals


No...a 1 in 3200 chance of being killed by space debris would mean, on the entire planet, there will be nearly 2.2 million people dead from this single satellite. Does that sound reasonable to you?

What it actually means is that, of the nearly 7 billion people on the planet, there is a 1 in 3200 chance that just 1 of those people will be hit by space debris.
That means you, alone, have a 0.0000000000044643% chance of being hit. I wouldn't be too worried about it.

Originally posted by Signals
Am I reading this right?

No, you're not reading it right.
The thread title...On 9/23/11 You Have a 1 in 3200 Chance of Being Killed By Space Debris... is wrong.

A NASA risk assessment places the odds of a human casualty at 1:3200. means that there is that risk of *anyone at all* on earth being killed.
But there are 7 billion people, so for you to be that particular specific unlucky one is a 1 in 7 billion chance.
Mutiplied by the improbability of 3200,
so
YOUR
specific individual chance of being killed, is a tiny 1 in 22400 billion.

reply to post by Signals


You want to know if Phage and Cartoon Head are right about something. How do you feel about it?

They are not right.----------------------

Eeek...regardless of the odds that it will be you. The 1 in 3200 of people getting smoked seems ridiculously high...Why all of a sudden are we having a reentry issue with a warning like this? Has this type of thing happened in any frequency before? Seems like another set up to start taking folks out from the sky.


I know..I know...but I'm just saying

Well why do you think all of us have invested in tin foil hats? That isn't for nothing you know, but in all seriousness it is a very remote possibility, and the last sat hit in the Indian ocean I think it was it may have been in the Pacific. But no worries just as long as you have that tin foiled hat you will be okay, I know that mine is on right now.

This was reported by my local news channel earlier this week. It was funny because the newscaster reported that NASA says there is only a 3,500 in 1 chance of it hitting anyone.

The co-reported was like, "What?" That's pretty good odds!" The guy says, "Wait, are those numbers right?" Then they went on to the next story

(redacted)

it is weird that they would put a ratio of chances of being hit by the very same thing that is supposed to benefit humanity. Or corporate profits. Same thing.

Why could they not shoot up a rocket to propel it to interstellar space?

reply to post by Signals


This is really neat!
Now I know what to give my oldest daughter for her birthday!
I'm gonna take her outside and tell her I arranged for this really, really cool sky show!

She recently dyed her hair blonde, so she will believe me!





1 in 3200 chance. I wonder how that statistic was decided.

I hope it occurs at night. Should be a great light show.

I wonder if it can be destroyed before it can do much damage.

I'm gonna do some research.

abovetopsecret

This would be called Space Junk, and it is incredible. While the MSM reports it about as often as Fukishima.

Here is a picture I posted on another thread (not mine but a thread about Space Debis/Junk), see above link.

One chance in 3200 of being hit by ANY piece of existing space junk ? Really ??

Hmmmm,so not 1 in 2000 or 1 in 8500 or 1 in 4235 ... or any other estimate but a fairly accurate estimation of 1 in 3200. I'd just love to see the mathematical "reasoning" behind such a precise figure - assuming there is any.

Sometimes I'm almost certain they pull these (and similar) statistical "values" out of a hat at random !

Originally posted by wiredamerican
(redacted)

it is weird that they would put a ratio of chances of being hit by the very same thing that is supposed to benefit humanity. Or corporate profits. Same thing.

Why could they not shoot up a rocket to propel it to interstellar space?

edit on 18-9-2011 by wiredamerican because: (no reason given)

The literal answer is "because we don't have rockets available that could generate enough delta-V for an interstellar trajectory". Assuming you're talking about the satellite that's been making the news lately, it's around 6.5 tons. Putting something that massive on a solar-escape trajectory would require a rocket comparable in size to a Saturn V, and we're fresh out of those.

Assuming that your "interstellar space" comment is a bit of hyperbole, and you're really wondering why we don't do something, rather than simply wait for the satellite to come down, let's look at our options:

1) Fire an anti-satellite warhead, and break up the satellite.
This has the advantage of being somewhat within the realm of possibility, using existing hardware. Assuming that we can deploy a Ticonderoga or a Burke in the right part of the ocean, and assuming that a few (minimum three, preferably six) SM-3 can be loaded aboard, and assuming that all the right software updates are loaded (as you can probably tell, anti-satellite shooting isn't common Naval tasking), we have a demonstrated ability to hit and break up orbital objects.

The disadvantages? We don't have many SM-3 SAM, and we don't have the correct software setups on more than a dozen ships in the fleet, so the odds of having them in the right place at the right time are iffy. There's also the fact that a successful intercept will, by definition, break the target into smaller pieces. Most of those will reenter the atmosphere, and (due to their smaller size) burn up more quickly. Unfortunately, other parts won't reenter...they'll be boosted by the impact and / or explosion, and become more bits of orbital debris, endangering other satellites.

2) Attach a small "kicker" motor to the satellite, and boost it into a higher, stable orbit.
We have the hardware for this sort of thing, but we don't have the time. You can't really keep an "Alert rocket" standing ready to launch on the pad (the reasons why would make a character-limit-busting post in their own right), and by the time we get the whole package assembled, fueled, and launched, the target will have already reentered.

The fact is that everything we do, from launching (or bringing down) a satellite, to driving to/from work, carries risk. That's simple truth.The messy, not so simple truth is that sometimes, those risks really can't be eliminated in any practical way, they just have to be lived with.