reply to post by Theophoros
Ok…while I believe this is valid…it is not valid by methodology you provided. I would present:
Facts:
1) Solar winds leave the Sun omni-directionally.
2) The mass and velocity of the Solar winds fluctuates on an hourly basis.
3) CME’s create a regionally specific change relative to the mass and velocity of the Solar winds.
4) The size of the nucleus of the comet is estimated at between 2-4 miles
5) The mass of the nucleus of the comet is estimated at 500 billion tons.
6) The comet is in a hyperbolic orbit
Assumptions:
1) As to the size and mass of the comet, as these are estimates whether or not they are accurate or not is not relative .
2) The comet is slowing down, which seems to be supported from the differing periods of perihelion.
Hypothesis:
The comet is slowing down due to solar winds and may cross the plane of Earth’s orbit at the same time that Earth is within that region.
Analysis:
In order for us to figure what was actually occurring based on this model, we need to know all of the facts at an hourly basis from the time that the
comet first started slowing down and then extrapolate out to when it would cross Earth’s orbital plane.
For simplification purposes the effects of the solar winds are not at the center of the methodology but the orbit of comet in relation to the Solar
winds. Let me explain. In diagramming the orbit of the comet let’s assume that the slowing occurred when the comet was at 180 degrees to the sun,
or directly into a “headwind”. As it continues, its orbit will take it towards the 90 degrees mark. From the time it was heading from the 180 to
90 it is not only slowing down but then being pushed to right, as its orbit is counter-clockwise. The crossing of the 90 degree mark would then
experience the most influence of deviation. As it continues its travel from 90 to 0/360 degrees it will still be influenced by the forces pushing it
to the right but now will have “tailwind”. This phenomenon is proven by how a comet’s tail always points away from the Sun. If your hypothesis
is accurate, that the Solar winds slowed it down, then we should see it starting to speed up. Although if this true, then the Solar winds would
pushing the comet towards us, as our orbit currently is to the right of the comet.
This then leads us to how influential the Solar winds are on an object in relation to Newtonian/Kepplar’s Laws. The average Solar winds average
about 610 km/s at 1 proton /cm3. Currently according to spaceweather.com we are at 586km/s and 1.6 /cm3 and these reading are updated every 10
minutes. While very fast there isn’t enough mass within the Solar winds to affect an object’s trajectory, as Newton states: A force in motion
stays in motion unless an equal and opposing force is applied. Further, as the orbit is hyperbolic, it should have been speeding up as it approaches
perihelion and will continue increasing up until it leaves the apex of the arc. The fact that the comet appears to be slowing down needs to be
addressed using other methodologies.
The only way I can see the Solar winds being the culprit is maybe the CME on Aug 30/Sept 1 that a number of youtube vids portrayed, hit it with
enough mass and speed to slow it down. This seems the more likely than any other explanation.
If someone else has more data to add to the model please feel free to let us know.
edit on 11-9-2011 by maddog3n because: grammar
