OPEC Has No Extra Oil Available!, page 1
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Topic started on 4-8-2004 @ 04:28 AM by smirkley
Prices are at a record high,..Yukos may be disassembled,..Pipelines in Iraq being blown up at a regular rate,..and OPEC has no extra oil to help lower prices.

Not to mention that the northern hemesphere's are begginning to stock up for the colder weather down the road.

Guess what this means,...Even Higher Prices !! Without any short term lowering expectations.



Crude Oil Futures Rise to Record Highs on Production Capacity Woes

Concerns are mounting that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil producers won't be able to plug the supply gap quickly enough.

On Tuesday, OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the cartel could not immediately increase output to help bring prices down.

Meanwhile, Yukos remains mired in a yearlong scandal over claims that it owes some $6.4 million in unpaid taxes dating back to 2000. Russia's Tax Ministry said Tuesday it was considering an additional audit of the company for 2001.

This would be the eighth consecutive week and comes as the Northern Hemisphere starts to stock up on winter fuels.

American refineries are running near flat-out, with operating rates at a record 97 percent of capacity.


edit - title

[edit on 4-8-2004 by smirkley]


reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 04:47 AM by HeirToBokassa
Amid all the bad news for Yukos, one item that contrasts is:
"Court Rules Collection of Court Bailiffs’ Fees from Yukos as Unlawful"
www.mosnews.com...

Could mean nothing. Could mean courts are independent in Russia, and that Yukos still has a chance. Could mean the Russian gov just wants to weaken Yukos so it can take it over without soldiers marching into their corporate HQ. But since this happened before the new tax probe, could mean this angered the Russian gov and provoked the new probe...



reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 05:06 AM by smirkley
Well honestly, I expect Iraq to be perpetually intermitten and unstable for some time, and really cant be counted on a for a 'quota' of production. Hit-n-miss at best.

Venezuela, although one of the biggest producer's, basically just needs a stable government. There has been much oil production investment on infrastructure, but output seems to be predictable. (short of any more strikes in the workforce)


An interesting article I just found...

The death of cheap crude

"Because of the way the market works, what was previously a minor strike in Nigeria or a commercial row in Russia is now a straw that will break the camel's back.

"Once you are producing flat-out, there is nothing you can do about disruptions. Once a slight imbalance occurs, then traders, who are there to make money, will price oil accordingly."




[edit on 4-8-2004 by smirkley]


reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 05:20 PM by Gools
From The Wilderness is also reporting this story: Suspicions confirmed, OPEC has little spare capacity.


The Oil Crunch is definiteley here. DEBKA File (A Middle East Watch Site) is predicting $50 dollars per barrel before the winter.

Immediate prospects for prices to level out are not good. The threat of sabotage hangs over Saudi infrastructure, including pipelines. The Iraqi oil industry, which exported 1.5 barrels per day in July, remains an uncertain factor given the state of security in the country. Other big oil players like Venezuela, Nigeria and Norway are also in the grip of unrest and strikes.

A new factor that could have a harmful effect on oil prices is the possible imposition of UN sanctions on another major world producer, Iran, which is steadily progressing towards a nuclear weapons capability. Source


[edit on 8/4/2004 by Gools]


reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 05:35 PM by FredT
Originally posted by Gools
From The Wilderness is also reporting this story: Suspicions confirmed, OPEC has little spare capacity.


This really is not new news. Only the Saudi's have an "excess" roduction capacity that they can ramp up in 30 days, but its only a small percentage increase.


reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 05:41 PM by AceOfBase
According to this news release from May, Bush upped the amount of oil being diverted into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 300,000 barrels per day.

If he cuts back, it may ease oil prices a little.

wyden.senate.gov...
In light of a recent report that the Administration’s current policy on filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is driving gasoline prices higher, we urge you to reconsider the Administration’s position on SPR fill and either halt filling the SPR or cut back the current filling rate.

Last week, Oil Daily reported that the Administration’s current policy of filling the SPR at a rate of 300,000 barrels per day had contributed to record high gasoline contract prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The current SPR fill rate reported by Oil Daily also calls into question your statement on February 2, 2004 that “We don’t subscribe to the notion that some have raised that somehow this tiny amount of oil going into the SPR is having a huge impact on prices. I don’t think it is . . . “. Given the fact that the current SPR fill rate is double the 150,000 barrel per day rate when you made that statement and that market observers are now finding that the current, much higher rate of fill is in fact increasing gasoline prices, we urge you again to halt filling or defer currently contracted deliveries to the SPR. If the Administration is unwilling to halt filling or postpone deliveries to help bring down prices for U.S. gasoline consumers, we urge that, at a minimum, the Administration cut back on the current rate of fill.




reply posted on 4-8-2004 @ 06:05 PM by Gools
A collection of 27 articles on the looming energy crisis can be found at this link: Energy Crisis Coming Sooner Than Expected.

The articles discuss everything from the Saudi supply, the Yukos crisis, the natural gas crisis, terrorism concerns, the situation in Venezuela etc.

Lots of reading but well worth it IMHO.

P.S. I will also post this in my Conditions Ripe for Recession/Depression? thread which also contains more background.
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