China and America: Rising Dragon, Bleeding Eagle

China and America: Rising Dragon, Bleeding Eagle

www.americanthinker.com

China's return as a superpower concomitant with rapid American decline is evoking a variety of sentiments around the world. While Latin America, Africa, and Greater Middle-East are largely welcoming this shift in power with varying degrees of enthusiasm, and an aging and dissipated Europe is watching it with bemused anxiety, in America it is causing an epic dilemma.

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Politicians and academics have often claimed that the competitive position of the US is weakening due to various domestic complexities such as diversion through a widening inequality in income distribution, a hopeless educational system that leads to a lesser ability to sustain innovativeness.

However, they should perhaps consider that it might be the world, especially the Asian continent that is catching up with the West as splendidly illustrated in this video:



The author of the opinion peace puts the growth of China in context by saying that: "the balance of power between China and America has altered over the last 20 years rapidly. At the end of 1991 when Soviet Union had formally dissolved, United States stood as the sole colossus on global stage. Its economy was then 6 times that of China. In 2010, China's continental economy was 70% that of US, and by 2016 -- in 5 years -- China (including Hong Kong and Macau) will rush past United States to become the leading economic power."

Considering the size of China, it's large workforce, labor efficiency, determinedness, and vision, they logically have the potential to overtake the US sooner rather than later.

I am of opinion that the US needs to invest heavily in education, infrastructure and a healthy financial climate that relies heavily on taxing corporations, rather than its people. We have seen what the financial climate has done to the US: it created a bubble through gambling and investment abroad, rather than at home. It stimulated corruption, irresponsible risk taking and the "American dream" turned out to be an unsustainable model.

Some quotes that sum up his points rather well:
*Everything the eagle did, the dragon will do on a scale several times larger and perhaps a bit faster, whether it is in the communications, transportation, energy, or aerospace sector.

*While China saves, invests, and builds, America borrows, squanders, and crumbles. China is tenaciously and patiently building its power by focusing inwardly, while Washington DC is rapidly bleeding and bankrupting America in futile wars and imperial hubris around the world.

*With $55 Trillion in debt, real unemployment close to 22%, 44 million people on food stamps, massive offshore outsourcing of jobs, a corrupting deluge of Chinese goods, and credit to feed debt afflicted consumption mania, and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure, the catastrophic tipping point is not far.

I really hope for the Americans that they can change the tide, I'm fearful though, that it's too late.


www.americanthinker.com
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why do americans always have to have an opposition?
how many people are there in the united states?
how old is the countries history?

if america had one billion people living there, the world would be finished.
if america had been around for as long as china, the world would have finished years ago.

why do we constantly think america has been around for ages and has so many people ?
usa is a bully in a school yard. the only problem is theres a ton load of schools now in the area and now theres schools that dont even have any bullies.

id love to see how this site would go if it was run by a different country every week...

Originally posted by Mdv2
Politicians and academics have often claimed that the competitive position of the US is weakening due to various domestic complexities such as diversion through a widening inequality in income distribution, a hopeless educational system that leads to a lesser ability to sustain innovativeness.

I am of opinion that the US needs to invest heavily in education, infrastructure and a healthy financial climate that relies heavily on taxing corporations, rather than its people. We have seen what the financial climate has done to the US: it created a bubble through gambling and investment abroad, rather than at home. It stimulated corruption, irresponsible risk taking and the "American dream" turned out to be an unsustainable model.

I cannot watch the video, but I agree with both of these points. The US has sadly followed what has become the standard model for empires:

A period of strong innovation, growth and expansion, leading to the rise of the culture as dominant on the world stage. This is followed by a plateau period, where the empire truly is at the top of the heap. Followed by increasing inertia, lessening innovation, hubris and an increasing reliance on the dominance of the empire's military to maintain the empire's position. This results in increasing abuse of the military, weakening it and with the side effect of increasing the number and virulence of actual and perceived enemies of the empire. This is followed in turn by a period when it is obvious to any who will look honestly that the empire is in decline. But the facade of strength is still maintainable, so too many citizens of the empire refuse to see the truth, and in fact persecute those who do. This is followed by a decline in the empire that anybody with two brain cells to rub together can see. In this stage, the rulers or implementors of the empire are generally more concerned with maintaining their personal wealth and power than working for the good of the country. Abuse of the military increases, as do the enemies of the empire.

Eventually, it all crumbles, as the forces working to destroy the empire, both external and internal, become stronger than the facade of strength. And the empire is destroyed.

The US empire has been on the fast track of this cycle... the US rose from nothing to world dominance very quickly, in historical terms, and is already declining, with just a facade of strength left, and the US military is being very badly abused. The rise and fall of the US empire, rather than happening over centuries, is happening in just a couple of generations.

It would be interesting to be a spider under the table and see how China manages this. China has had empires before, maybe they learned the lesson. Not likely, given the venality of the average politician world-wide.

It is technically not too late to stop, or at least bend, this cycle. Given the myopia of the majority of the US population and "leadership", I do not consider it likely.

Originally posted by Open_Minded Skeptic
The US empire has been on the fast track of this cycle... the US rose from nothing to world dominance very quickly, in historical terms, and is already declining, with just a facade of strength left, and the US military is being very badly abused. The rise and fall of the US empire, rather than happening over centuries, is happening in just a couple of generations.

Interesting observation. It reminds me of a piece written by professor Niall Ferguson some time ago:

Niall Ferguson posits that the life cycles of great powers might not follow the long-accepted pattern of gradual rise and fall. Rather, he says, "it is possible that this whole conceptual framework is, in fact, flawed," and that empires fall quickly and without warning. With that in mind, Ferguson explores what it might mean for the geopolitical status quo.

source

While I can't argue with the vision of America declining, China is growing at the expense of itself. It (China) is eating itself from the inside just in order to surpass America.
The big question then becomes this.
Is America going to decline faster than China implodes?

If we all worked as one planet instead of a groups of competing political and racial factions, we might actually advance into the so called utopia some dont think we can get too.
if you oppress someone, you make an enemy of them and their children...
if you make them a friend and equal, you get allies.
When the people runn9ing the show no longer have vested financial interests in company's that make components for weapons, we might be on to something...
till then bend over and kiss...
Oh well at least if we blow each other up, the world might get a break..

I am always amused by topics regarding China and US.
As i previously stated on another topic some time ago, China is not a superpower per se.Yes, they have an economic growth that , eventualy, will surpass US economy in global figures.
However, what China do not have (and probably won't have for like 20-30 years from now on) is POWER PROJECTION.

They cannot protect any economical interests they have overseas.China have a REAL problem with their workforce.I mean, seriously, like 800 million chinese live in rural areas, and presumebly, agricultural.Still, they barely produce food for themselves.US, on the other hand...its first producer of grain and corn.And exporter.

All China growth is just a bubble.They can't even develop their OWN rural areas.How could they even try to invest masively overseas (they invest overseas, but nothing compared to US) ?

Anyway, once they start to invest masively overseas (because they will HAVE to do it, to keep up their economic growth) China will need power projection.And this means military : bases, troops, CARRIERS (they have exactly ZERO carriers) AND money to support all those.

Seriously, China, in order to even come CLOSE to US, will need to spend A LOT on military.Yes, they have the money...what they DO NOT have is the real means to use those money to grow their military.They don't have scientists to build a carrier (if they did, they will already have carriers).
Some might argue that a country don't need carriers to protect their overseas interest.Yes, right, Germany don't have any carrier...BUT they are a NATO member, which HAVE carrier.

Its really stupid to beleive that China will pose a threat to US domination.Not in the next 20+ years.And in 20 years many things can happend.

Yes, for the sake of discusion, we can say that a 1,2 BILLION people country will produce MORE then a 300 million one.So what? China is still a 3rd world country (those 800 million peasants they have are actually extremely poor AND can be considered UNEMPLOYED work force).

Yes, US have issues...but China have BIGGER ones (some almost imposible to solve).

Originally posted by Recollector
Seriously, China, in order to even come CLOSE to US, will need to spend A LOT on military.Yes, they have the money...what they DO NOT have is the real means to use those money to grow their military.They don't have scientists to build a carrier (if they did, they will already have carriers).

Two things to consider. One, aircraft carriers are really obsolete. Yes, they may still be useful against countries like Afghanistan or Iraq that don't have advanced weaponry. But the Russians have had missiles for years that can take out an aircraft carrier in one shot, and it costs a tiny fraction of what an aircraft carrier costs. We have never seen the full extent of what Russia or China could do to our aircraft carriers (our main overseas force besides troops on the ground) because we have not had the opportunity to face them in a modern war yet. Even during WW2 aircraft carriers were a far cry from indestructible and the Japanese sank many of them, so there's no need getting such a hard on over them.

For another thing the US has a massive spending problem that's called "pork barrel spending" among other things. It's the kind of thing where they spend $10,000 of tax money on a single $10 hammer. The rest of the money is going into somebody's pocket through corrupt business practices. If you don't think this happens in the military industrial complex then you're crazy. Companies are awarded exclusive contracts for military production by the DoD, so they have no competition, and then they are handed a blank check from the Pentagon. Yes, they can come up with some nice equipment, but the cost reflects the blank-check scenario too, and our economy is now suffering from this. Half of all our spending is on the military and that's just OFFICIAL documentation.

Originally posted by Recollector
However, what China do not have (and probably won't have for like 20-30 years from now on) is POWER PROJECTION.

Anyway, once they start to invest masively overseas (because they will HAVE to do it, to keep up their economic growth) China will need power projection.And this means military : bases, troops, CARRIERS (they have exactly ZERO carriers) AND money to support all those.

Seriously, China, in order to even come CLOSE to US, will need to spend A LOT on military.Yes, they have the money...what they DO NOT have is the real means to use those money to grow their military.

Putting China on the exact same Empire path as has been followed by every other, ultimately unsuccessful, empire.

Originally posted by Recollector
I am always amused by topics regarding China and US.
As i previously stated on another topic some time ago, China is not a superpower per se.Yes, they have an economic growth that , eventualy, will surpass US economy in global figures.
However, what China do not have (and probably won't have for like 20-30 years from now on) is POWER PROJECTION.

They cannot protect any economical interests they have overseas.China have a REAL problem with their workforce.I mean, seriously, like 800 million chinese live in rural areas, and presumebly, agricultural.Still, they barely produce food for themselves.US, on the other hand...its first producer of grain and corn.And exporter.

All China growth is just a bubble.They can't even develop their OWN rural areas.How could they even try to invest masively overseas (they invest overseas, but nothing compared to US) ?

Anyway, once they start to invest masively overseas (because they will HAVE to do it, to keep up their economic growth) China will need power projection.And this means military : bases, troops, CARRIERS (they have exactly ZERO carriers) AND money to support all those.

Seriously, China, in order to even come CLOSE to US, will need to spend A LOT on military.Yes, they have the money...what they DO NOT have is the real means to use those money to grow their military.They don't have scientists to build a carrier (if they did, they will already have carriers).
Some might argue that a country don't need carriers to protect their overseas interest.Yes, right, Germany don't have any carrier...BUT they are a NATO member, which HAVE carrier.

Its really stupid to beleive that China will pose a threat to US domination.Not in the next 20+ years.And in 20 years many things can happend.

Yes, for the sake of discusion, we can say that a 1,2 BILLION people country will produce MORE then a 300 million one.So what? China is still a 3rd world country (those 800 million peasants they have are actually extremely poor AND can be considered UNEMPLOYED work force).

Yes, US have issues...but China have BIGGER ones (some almost imposible to solve).

Did you read my post? Based on current estimations, it seems that China will be the world's largest economy in five years time. They are to achieve that in only 25 years. Surely, it might take another two decades for China to become a military superpower, but with the rapid increase in spending on its military, the odds are higher that they will achieve so faster. Currently, only 2.2% of GDP is spent on military vs 4.7% by the US equaling $114 billion vs more than 600 billion and look at the following graph to understand the rate at which they increase defense spending year-on-year.



Like someone else mentioned, aircraft carriers have become obsolete and ridiculously expensive to operate. That doesn't mean the Chinese won't build them. In fact, their first ex-Soviet carrier is to be fully refitted this year. Another two 50,000-60,000 ton carriers are to be finished next year.

Just look at the pace they build up their war machine. For instance, the development of the J-20 fighter jet began in the late 1990s and is to be in service in 2017, whereas the F-35 is expected to enter service in 2016 and development began in 1996. The difference being that the US has a long history in aircraft design and the project is a joint-venture between various Western companies/technologies while the Chinese have developed a jet that is suggested to be superior to the F-35 and possibly matches the strength of the F-22. True or not, their rate of development is way higher than that of the West.

You are saying China is a bubble, to which I somewhat agree, but let's not pretend the US economy is not based on a bubble. As a matter of fact, the bubble has exploded and it is just waiting for the Dollar to follow suit. Moreover, I don't know if you have been living under a stone the past decade, but the Chinese have invested heavily overseas. They rebuild African warzones very rapidly in exchange for their natural resources. They develop Southern American countries in a similar way. The Chinese are everywhere and they are now building a war machine to defend these interests while the US is gradually losing power and influence on the world stage.

However, you seem to assume that the US is to maintain its current strength. Clearly, they are not. Austerity measures are also hitting America hard and will only hit the country harder. While China is on the rise, the US is on the decline. Meaning that it's very doubtful that the US will maintain its current military strength. The fact that no more than some 200 F-22s are built is evidence of that. China on the other hand has by no means reached that stage and has plenty of potential to grow further.

reply to post by Mdv2


Of course China is rising and the US is bleeding. When the US politicians have been bought off for decades to ruin the US economy deliberately. Where the country can not buy anything that isn't made in China while we are continuously being stopped from make anything. This has nothing to do with how great China is or how bad the US is. Its about a well planned and carried out execution. The power house of the banking, oil, and big business is not located in the US never has been. We have been killed and robbed of everything. While their mantra is NEXT.

Originally posted by redrose123
reply to post by Mdv2

 

Of course China is rising and the US is bleeding. When the US politicians have been bought off for decades to ruin the US economy deliberately. Where the country can not buy anything that isn't made in China while we are continuously being stopped from make anything. This has nothing to do with how great China is or how bad the US is. Its about a well planned and carried out execution. The power house of the banking, oil, and big business is not located in the US never has been. We have been killed and robbed of everything. While their mantra is NEXT.

What you are saying is true. Since the creation of the Fed, the US government has become hostage to the banking sector while other huge conglomerations have bribed politicians, whom represent corporate interests, rather than the interests of the American people. Less than 1% of the US people that owns these companies have stolen trillions and trillions of dollars at the expensive of the US economy. An unsustainable solution that made these people rich in a very short time while the majority is going to bear the burden.

This is not related to 'made in China' products in my opinion though. Western economies have moved from industrial-based to service-based and that means that many domestically industrial products are relocated to low-wage countries. However, the US has failed to fully transition its economy to a sustainable innovative society, which leaves many blue-collar laborers stuck in between the middle (unemployed).

We are falling but just think about the stuff we didn't release to public yet. During these upcoming years and by the way things are looking we are actually going to switch over. The thing is we have to dry out in order for the government to do so. I mean come on guys we can teleport up to 600 meters already. So you dont think in 2 decades it wont be commercialized? Everyone wants America to fall, even some of us Americans. But instead of thinking negative about our country why not help. We are on top and it will be that way for a while. Not to mention our budget is real nice on tech and all the greatest inventions come from who? Americans!

Yes, aircraft carriers CAN be obsolete and CAN be sunk by some missiles.But the point is that now, the best power projection ARE the carriers.I mean, yes, you can launch 200 planes from China to , lets say, Venezuela.
However...they will need like 3-4 refueling , not to mention they NEED authorization to fly over a number of countries.

What i have really saying is that China NEEDS to masively invest overseas, and not in Nigeria or w/e 3rd world economy.They are acumulating HUGE quantities of money that needs to be invested somwhere.Money that don't work are inexistent.China is a bubble that will go pop.They have too much money.And this is actually bad because those money (most of them) are not reinvested.

Most pppl see China as the next big dog in the yard.But most ppl have no ideea what a big dog means these days.China is a poor country.Get out of their urban east coast areas, where only 200-250 million ppl live, and you will see what i mean.

Yes, their economy, as i said, will eventualy be bigger...but ONLY counting money.Any developed country reinvest their money.China doesn't (well, they do, but in very small percentage compared to how much they have).China builds highways like crazy, builds trains, airports...BUT those things are NOT making any money.

Anyway, US have China under their toes.Yep, US is in huuuge debt...but China hapily GIVE FREE dollars to US.Those money are not loans, those money are the best way for China to survive.
Most can think its a symbiotic relation between US and China, economicaly speaking.Well, its not.China needs US much more then US needs China.
Lets say that US economy colapses tomorrow.So what? If it comes to GET what US needs, they will use their military to get it.The economy can colapse, but the military won't colapse in second 1 after an economic crash.
So, US economy colapses...bye bye China's sales in the US.

Now, if you look what will happend if China economy colapses...the worst US can have is lose a chunk of their loans.No problemo, US will, if needed, use their military to get what they need.But China will be game over.

Lets assume both US and China are very close to colapse economicaly, but world strongest economies can bail out ONE of them.Who do you think they will choose? US, who can kick anyones ass if they need (or want) and also are the main NATO member or China, who can't even get 1000 troops from their country to defend an ally?
Seriously, China is no match for what US means (add here NATO btw).

Originally posted by Recollector
Yes, aircraft carriers CAN be obsolete and CAN be sunk by some missiles.But the point is that now, the best power projection ARE the carriers.I mean, yes, you can launch 200 planes from China to , lets say, Venezuela.
However...they will need like 3-4 refueling , not to mention they NEED authorization to fly over a number of countries.

Why would China have a need to do that?

Think, if they only have to fight a defensive war against the US, they have no need projecting their power overseas with aircraft carriers. They could move their standing armies and heavy equipment across the Asian continent and still hit the US everywhere in the Mid-East without even needing naval support. Compared to what the US is pouring into fighting Afghanistan and Iraq now, how many more resources do you think it would require on top of that to fight invading Chinese too?


China is not trying to play world emperor like the US is. All they have to do is defend their home turf. Hell, they could just dump all their dollar reserves or try to cash them in and immediately crash the US economy if they really wanted.

Originally posted by bsbray11

Originally posted by Recollector
Yes, aircraft carriers CAN be obsolete and CAN be sunk by some missiles.But the point is that now, the best power projection ARE the carriers.I mean, yes, you can launch 200 planes from China to , lets say, Venezuela.
However...they will need like 3-4 refueling , not to mention they NEED authorization to fly over a number of countries.

Why would China have a need to do that?

Think, if they only have to fight a defensive war against the US, they have no need projecting their power overseas with aircraft carriers. They could move their standing armies and heavy equipment across the Asian continent and still hit the US everywhere in the Mid-East without even needing naval support. Compared to what the US is pouring into fighting Afghanistan and Iraq now, how many more resources do you think it would require on top of that to fight invading Chinese too?


China is not trying to play world emperor like the US is. All they have to do is defend their home turf. Hell, they could just dump all their dollar reserves or try to cash them in and immediately crash the US economy if they really wanted.

Not about defensive wars man...its power projection.think about US and their interest, most beeing economic interest overseas.As example, US can defend EU against anyone (insert NATO here) because comercial trades beteen US and EU are vital to both.US dont even need carriers, they have bases all over the world.China have squat.
Imagine China having interests in 10 countries in Africa, trades that are, lets say, 10% of all China revenues.What if China will need asap to get 50000 troops in one of those countries because a war brokes out.
Can they do it? Yes, in their dreams

China CANNOT protect ANY overseas interest they have.


Edit : WHat about China deciding to BUY all of the car factories in Germany , because Mercedes and BMW are , lets say the least, nice to have, and they sell good.Lets say Mercedes and BMW agree with the sale.All of a sudden, Germany loses a chunk of their exports and decide to NATIONALIZE all Chinas new Mercedes and BMW factories to prevent a colapse.What China can do about it ? Yes, you right : NOTHING

Originally posted by Recollector
Not about defensive wars man...its power projection.think about US and their interest, most beeing economic interest overseas.As example, US can defend EU against anyone (insert NATO here) because comercial trades beteen US and EU are vital to both.US dont even need carriers, they have bases all over the world.China have squat.

Yeah, I still don't see the point. I'm not a fan of going all over the world and trying to build an empire by putting a military base in every country and trying to force them to do what we want. That's the exact opposite of the values this country was founded on and I'm kind of hoping China will put an end to that at least in their region of the world, which is all they would have to do from a defensive standpoint.

Recollector, you don't make any valid points.

I would debate you on this topic but you wouldn't understand seeing how firmly you believe in the American way that nobody can do better than you.

All I can say is to do more research on China before you go off on rants on news that is literally years old.

According to this Hans Roslings "Aging" graph
Many European cultures are already past the point of no return.


David Grouchy