Mainstream news corp now highlighting incoming asteroid.

Originally posted by Pauligirl

Originally posted by autowrench

Originally posted by Pauligirl
Elenin is only a big deal here on the internet and mostly because of misinformation.

It’s not that big.
It’s not that close.
It’s not going to hit us.

Please be so kind as to explain:

If you have measured it, and surely you have with that statement, just what size is it then?

From Leonid Elenin

I can’t exactly answer on this question, I estimate size as 3-4 kilometers in diameter. We can determine size of nucleus by photometry measurements of comet nucleus. But in our case comet is active and they was active when I discovered it. For the rough size estimate I used several images of my comet taken by 2-m Faulkes Telescope North. I tried to exclude influence of coma but this measurements still approximate. If Arecibo will observe my comet, we can determine nucleus size with high accuracy.

spaceobs.org...
If Arecibo observes it, I'll post the findings here.

As you obviously are very keen on this, please inform us as to how many miles it is away then?

Again, from Leonid Elenin

At the end of June 2011, Comet Elenin will cross the orbit of the fourth planet of the Solar System – Mars. It must be noted that from April to June, the comet did not come closer to the Earth, but moved “parallel” with it. Right at the beginning of July, the comet will begin to very quickly move toward our planet. I again want to emphasize, the comet will pass 35 million kilometers from the Earth. It is an absolutely safe distance, just a little closer to the Earth than the second planet, Venus, comes.

spaceobs.org...

As you can see into the future, please tell us what to expect in two weeks from today?

In relation to Elenin? Just more fearmongering on the net. What do you expect two week from today?

Do you see where these blatant statements have taken you Pauligirl?

Actually, I don't.
Oh, in two or three weeks , you may actually get to see it.

As I wrote earlier, NASA is interested in observing Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) with the space coronagraphs SOHO and STEREO. Not long ago I received a reply from Joseph B. Gurman to the effect that starting July 17 they will be running pointing tests on the space telescope STEREO-B. The spacecraft will be rotated as will be necessary to do in the future to observe the comet. If all the tests are successful, of which the STEREO team has no doubt, they will observe Comet Elenin from July 31 to August 12, two hours a day. The minimal distance (July 31 2011, 12:40 UT) between comet and spacecraft will be 7.4 million km (0.049 AU). Plans to observe the comet using SOHO with different fliters are also in the works.

spaceobs.org...

I'd like to think that the STEREO-B. observations will put an end to some of the doom and gloom. But I doubt it seriously.

I can’t exactly answer on this question

From the horses mouth is enlightenment. CHAOS is a very complex math to master. Have you mastered it Pauligirl? Leonid Elenin admits he hasn't.. why should we believe that you have?

Thanks for the post OP!...

Originally posted by Heyyo_yoyo

I can’t exactly answer on this question

From the horses mouth is enlightenment. CHAOS is a very complex math to master. Have you mastered it Pauligirl? Leonid Elenin admits he hasn't.. why should we believe that you have?

Thanks for the post OP!...

Have I mastered it? Nope, but I'll stick with the folks that have a background and education in the subject.
How big do you think Elenin is?

reply to post by Pauligirl


Elenin is just one of three intersecting variables that have included Earth as it's 4th variable - Honda and 2005 yu55 posing as second and third variables.

Has ANYONE thought to cross reference the paths of all variables, to ensure a safe transition of these tightly timed convergances, which includes gravitational influences both along the way (from encountered planetary sources), as well as from each other, the Earth, and/or our moon?

No.

Does a possibility exist that smaller, not yet discovered objects COULD interfere with current projected trajectories via collision?

yes.

Chaos... pure and complex.

Wow... did I just hit the nail on the head with that last comment or what?

Originally posted by Heyyo_yoyo
reply to post by Pauligirl

 

Elenin is just one of three intersecting variables that have included Earth as it's 4th variable - Honda and 2005 yu55 posing as second and third variables.

Has ANYONE thought to cross reference the paths of all variables, to ensure a safe transition of these tightly timed convergances, which includes gravitational influences both along the way (from encountered planetary sources), as well as from each other, the Earth, and/or our moon?

No.

Does a possibility exist that smaller, not yet discovered objects COULD interfere with current projected trajectories via collision?

yes.

Chaos... pure and complex.

edit on 10-7-2011 by Heyyo_yoyo because: (no reason given)

Here's some more chaos for you.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...
Upcoming close approaches to earth
Let us know when you the charts done.

As you can see into the future, please tell us what to expect in two weeks from today?

It is possible to calculate where C/2010 X1 Elenin will be in two weeks. What's your point?

Originally posted by Pauligirl

Originally posted by Heyyo_yoyo
reply to post by Pauligirl

 

Elenin is just one of three intersecting variables that have included Earth as it's 4th variable - Honda and 2005 yu55 posing as second and third variables.

Has ANYONE thought to cross reference the paths of all variables, to ensure a safe transition of these tightly timed convergances, which includes gravitational influences both along the way (from encountered planetary sources), as well as from each other, the Earth, and/or our moon?

No.

Does a possibility exist that smaller, not yet discovered objects COULD interfere with current projected trajectories via collision?

yes.

Chaos... pure and complex.

edit on 10-7-2011 by Heyyo_yoyo because: (no reason given)

Here's some more chaos for you.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...
Upcoming close approaches to earth
Let us know when you the charts done.

(2006 SP19) 2011-Oct-26 0.0924 36.0 33 m - 74 m 24.5 10.13
(1993 VD) 2011-Oct-26 0.0902 35.1 120 m - 280 m 21.7 19.58
(2005 CJ) 2011-Oct-27 0.0827 32.2 230 m - 520 m 20.3 9.87
(2011 LC19) 2011-Oct-29 0.0580 22.6 570 m - 1.3 km 18.3 14.54
(2010 VU98) 2011-Oct-31 0.0461 17.9 30 m - 68 m 24.7 10.21

Well these look good enough to watch... esp. 2011 LC19

Since I'm not chaotic enough to do the math, speculation is all most sane people can offer...



When given the larger picture of chaos... you'll need quantum mathematics calculated on at least quad core systems to decifer any value:

264993 (2003 DX10) 2011-Jul-12 0.1738 67.6 240 m - 530 m 20.2 9.04
265187 (2003 YS117) 2011-Jul-14 0.1900 73.9 630 m - 1.4 km 18.1 17.75
(2008 LV16) 2011-Jul-14 0.0681 26.5 240 m - 540 m 20.2 15.47
(2010 HA) 2011-Jul-15 0.1032 40.1 42 m - 95 m 24.0 3.94
(2008 TR10) 2011-Jul-15 0.1439 56.0 220 m - 480 m 20.4 5.43
152828 (1999 VT25) 2011-Jul-17 0.1471 57.2 180 m - 400 m 20.9 19.90
(2008 OO) 2011-Jul-18 0.1822 70.9 300 m - 670 m 19.7 25.57
(2008 NP3) 2011-Jul-18 0.1128 43.9 57 m - 130 m 23.3 6.75
(2011 FS9) 2011-Jul-20 0.1447 56.3 52 m - 120 m 23.6 4.35
(2011 NY) 2011-Jul-21 0.1366 53.2 210 m - 470 m 20.5 10.32
(2007 RQ17) 2011-Jul-22 0.0340 13.2 80 m - 180 m 22.6 5.70
(2011 MW1) 2011-Jul-23 0.0671 26.1 89 m - 200 m 22.4 10.01
(2007 DD) 2011-Jul-23 0.0239 9.3 19 m - 42 m 25.8 3.54
(2009 PC) 2011-Jul-26 0.1542 60.0 61 m - 140 m 23.2 7.42
(2003 BK47) 2011-Jul-26 0.1994 77.6 660 m - 1.5 km 18.0 24.59
(2011 NZ) 2011-Jul-29 0.1889 73.5 190 m - 430 m 20.7 4.83
(2008 SO) 2011-Jul-30 0.1590 61.9 200 m - 450 m 20.6 7.16
(2011 LS17) 2011-Jul-31 0.1141 44.4 79 m - 180 m 22.6 10.89
3103 Eger 2011-Aug-04 0.1528 59.5 1.5 km 15.4 16.36
(2008 SR7) 2011-Aug-05 0.1421 55.3 280 m - 620 m 19.9 8.31
(2008 NX) 2011-Aug-07 0.1593 62.0 25 m - 57 m 25.1 7.13
(2011 GD60) 2011-Aug-11 0.1134 44.1 120 m - 270 m 21.7 5.27
(2006 SE6) 2011-Aug-14 0.1981 77.1 69 m - 150 m 22.9 14.11
45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova 2011-Aug-15 0.0601 23.4 1.6 km 0.0 24.62
(1988 TA) 2011-Aug-16 0.1939 75.4 400 m 20.9 10.45
136770 (1996 PC1) 2011-Aug-17 0.1762 68.6 230 m - 510 m 20.3 17.97
(2011 BL45) 2011-Aug-19 0.0991 38.6 9.8 m - 22 m 27.2 3.87
(2008 RG1) 2011-Aug-20 0.1430 55.7 190 m - 430 m 20.7 11.44
(2009 AV) 2011-Aug-22 0.1278 49.7 670 m - 1.5 km 18.0 22.68
(2011 KP17) 2011-Aug-23 0.1249 48.6 390 m - 880 m 19.2 10.72
(2011 JP29) 2011-Aug-26 0.1850 72.0 450 m - 1000 m 18.9 10.97
(2007 UT3) 2011-Aug-26 0.0900 35.0 19 m - 43 m 25.7 11.94
(2010 JW34) 2011-Aug-28 0.0778 30.3 6.2 m - 14 m 28.1 3.12
(2002 JR100) 2011-Aug-28 0.0509 19.8 38 m - 84 m 24.2 7.87
(2011 HD63) 2011-Sep-06 0.0484 18.8 80 m - 180 m 22.6 9.87
(2008 EK1) 2011-Sep-06 0.0845 32.9 230 m - 520 m 20.3 24.79
(2010 JK1) 2011-Sep-09 0.1349 52.5 35 m - 78 m 24.4 4.63
101955 (1999 RQ36) 2011-Sep-11 0.1766 68.7 180 m - 410 m 20.8 10.77
(2011 LJ19) 2011-Sep-15 0.0426 16.6 150 m - 340 m 21.2 10.06
(2011 KF4) 2011-Sep-16 0.1455 56.6 370 m - 820 m 19.3 10.32
(1991 TF3) 2011-Sep-16 0.0857 33.4 440 m - 980 m 18.9 13.84
(2006 BE55) 2011-Sep-17 0.1895 73.8 110 m - 240 m 21.9 18.79
232691 (2004 AR1) 2011-Sep-17 0.1444 56.2 300 m - 670 m 19.8 9.99
(2009 BW2) 2011-Sep-17 0.1261 49.1 25 m - 56 m 25.1 3.32
(2007 VB138) 2011-Sep-18 0.0814 31.7 16 m - 36 m 26.1 11.14
(2003 QC10) 2011-Sep-18 0.1284 50.0 710 m - 1.6 km 17.9 27.87
(2004 SV55) 2011-Sep-19 0.1735 67.5 710 m - 1.6 km 17.9 32.59
(2009 UR5) 2011-Sep-21 0.0760 29.6 19 m - 43 m 25.7 8.96
(2007 TD) 2011-Sep-23 0.0097 3.8 36 m - 80 m 24.4 11.91
(2000 SP43) 2011-Sep-26 0.1392 54.2 560 m - 1.2 km 18.4 10.67
(2009 SH2) 2011-Sep-28 0.0770 30.0 28 m - 62 m 24.9 5.79
(2009 HV2) 2011-Oct-01 0.0839 32.6 150 m - 330 m 21.3 14.71
(2009 DO111) 2011-Oct-01 0.0787 30.6 71 m - 160 m 22.9 6.79
(2011 FS2) 2011-Oct-01 0.1926 75.0 16 m - 35 m 26.2 7.23
247517 (2002 QY6) 2011-Oct-03 0.1276 49.7 330 m - 740 m 19.5 22.68
(2011 HC36) 2011-Oct-04 0.0981 38.2 180 m - 410 m 20.8 12.69
(2004 SW26) 2011-Oct-06 0.1209 47.0 20 m - 44 m 25.7 12.43
(2005 TQ45) 2011-Oct-07 0.0917 35.7 21 m - 46 m 25.6 13.65
85770 (1998 UP1) 2011-Oct-07 0.1997 77.7 220 m - 500 m 20.4 16.98
(1993 DA) 2011-Oct-08 0.1956 76.1 14 m - 31 m 26.4 7.25
163081 (2002 AG29) 2011-Oct-09 0.1981 77.1 620 m - 1.4 km 18.2 7.28
(2010 CC55) 2011-Oct-09 0.1819 70.8 92 m - 210 m 22.3 16.18
(1998 SD9) 2011-Oct-09 0.0725 28.2 41 m - 91 m 24.1 12.62
(2010 GM65) 2011-Oct-12 0.0383 14.9 87 m - 190 m 22.4 21.05
138524 (2000 OJ8) 2011-Oct-13 0.1280 49.8 1.5 km - 3.4 km 16.2 10.36
(1990 UA) 2011-Oct-15 0.0845 32.9 400 m 19.6 16.64
(2009 TM8) 2011-Oct-17 0.0028 1.1 5.1 m - 11 m 28.6 8.17
(2007 SV1) 2011-Oct-17 0.1792 69.7 31 m - 68 m 24.7 13.35
(2009 UC) 2011-Oct-18 0.0547 21.3 13 m - 29 m 26.6 12.94
(1998 SC15) 2011-Oct-18 0.1215 47.3 360 m - 800 m 19.4 16.79
(2001 UP) 2011-Oct-21 0.1149 44.7 20 m - 44 m 25.7 11.55
(2003 FH) 2011-Oct-24 0.0653 25.4 450 m - 1.0 km 18.9 22.79
(2006 SP19) 2011-Oct-26 0.0924 36.0 33 m - 74 m 24.5 10.13
(1993 VD) 2011-Oct-26 0.0902 35.1 120 m - 280 m 21.7 19.58
(2005 CJ) 2011-Oct-27 0.0827 32.2 230 m - 520 m 20.3 9.87
(2011 LC19) 2011-Oct-29 0.0580 22.6 570 m - 1.3 km 18.3 14.54
(2010 VU98) 2011-Oct-31 0.0461 17.9 30 m - 68 m 24.7 10.21
(2009 VN1) 2011-Nov-06 0.1299 50.5 39 m - 88 m 24.2 13.61
(2011 FZ2) 2011-Nov-07 0.1950 75.9 980 m - 2.2 km 17.2 24.09
(2007 VF189) 2011-Nov-07 0.1232 47.9 5.7 m - 13 m 28.3 15.03

So it goes to show, anyone with definitive answers to a real life chaotic equation must really have thier head deep up Uranus to aspire to knowing the facts, at any rate.

BE PREPARED... is the answer to most chaos variants!

Regardless of fact, fiction or personal belief... math is good, math is wise, numbers don't lie...

I had posted this to a different Elenin thread....

Comet Elenin was 2.1 A.U. away, or 195 million miles on March 11, 2011, the date the earthquake occured in Japan. Now let's ask ourselves, 'In what way can this comet affect the Earth from this distance?

The only answer has to be its gravity, right? it is the only force available to it that can affect other celestial bodies from a distance. To cause the earthquake in Japan, the gravity from this comet must pull on the Earth strong enough to stress the crust.

Is this possible? Is the force of gravity from Comet Elenin strong enough to cause such an event on Earth from 195 million miles away? Not...

But forgetting for a minute that earthquakes are caused by plate tectonics and not gravitationally stressed celestial bodies, let's assume, for the sake of argument, that a passing celestial body can cause an earthquake if it is big enough and passes by closely enough.

It is estimated the the entire mass of all comets in the solar system adds up to equal about 2% of the mass of the Sun. This comes out to about 4 x 10^28 kg of material spread out over 100,000,000,000,000 comets that are believed to exist in our solar system - these include primarily comets in the Oort cloud out in the boondocks.

This gives us an average mass of comets to be 400,000,000,000,000 kilograms each (divide mass of all comets in the solar system by the number of comets).

For people who prefer scientific notation, it's 4 x 10^14 kg per comet. The mass of comet Elenin isn't known precisely, but we'll use this average figure for now. I've already stated above that this is probably an overestimate, Elenin is not this big.

How much pull is that?

To answer that, we need to know three things:

1.The mass of the comet (we just figured that out)
2.The mass of the Earth (that equals 6 x 10^24 kg)
3.The distance between the two.

Right off the bat, a red flag should be going off in your head. Look at the difference between the mass of the Earth and the mass of Comet Elenin: it's 10^10 kg different!

That's 10 billion kilograms.

Still, let's forge ahead and not make assumptions.

As stated above, comet Elenin was 195 million miles away on the date of the earthquake in Japan, so here goes:

To do this math quickly you can use this calculator: www.ajdesigner.com...

Just plug in the numbers above and you get:

365,555.2 pounds of force

This is how much force Comet Elenin exerted on the planet Earth on March 11, 2011.

I realize this number seems huge, and that it must seem like a number that big should do some something, but to put this in perspective, the Moon exerts 4.2 x 10^19 pounds of force on the Earth everyday with the only real effect being the tides. (I used the same calculator linked to above, but replaced the mass of Elenin with that of the Moon and used a distance of 240,000 miles).

That's 4,200,000,000,000,000,000 pounds of force.

So on that day, comet Elenin exerted 4.2 x 10^19 / 356,555 =

1.2 x 10^14 times LESS force than the Moon exerts on the Earth every single day.

Written another way, the gravitational force exerted on the Earth from comet Elenin was 1 / 120,000,000,000,000th the strength the Moon exerts on the Earth on the day the earthquake hit.

The wind exerts more force on us than that, the pressure of the light from the Sun on our skin is greater than that, a sneeze from four miles away is more powerful than that.

Just about everything is more powerful than that.

What about when Elenin reaches it's closest point to us? Will it affect us then?

Plugging in 21 million miles in the above calculator yields a force of 31,519,807 pounds. Still incredibly small.

One more thing I should mention. These forces I've computed above act on the entire Earth. If we want to know how strong this force is per unit area, we need to divide them by the surface area of the Earth, which is 5,490,383,247,360,000 square feet

So, on final approach to the Earth, on October 16, 2011, Comet Elenin will exert 31,519,807 pounds / 5,490,383,247,360,000 square feet = 5.74091199 10-9 pounds per square foot.... won't even notice it.

reply to post by Skorpiogurl


Thanks - your genius is indeed appreciated! you are needed here more than I can tell you!

Can you please calculate for us the effect of 2005 yu55 for us??

And can you please speculate on my chaos theory?

With the list I provided revealing how many marbles are headed our way, is it safe to speculate a possibility of intersecting collisions that redirect debris in our direction?

What type of calculation do you want? The same? gravitation effect on Earth? I can tell you it's miniscule... or I could do the numbers, or you could do the numbers... anyone could calculate the numbers with a gravitational force calculator. Here... try this one: www.wsanford.com...

There's also a fun impact calculator... check it out.

If you calculate how large an impact crater would be on Earth if/when Asteroid YU55 hit the Earth. It would be 4.4 km across:

D = 2*ρm.11*ρp-1/3*gp-.22*R.13*Ek.22*sin1/3θ

This formula is derived from empirical results.
ρm is the planet density = 3500 kg/m3
ρp is the asteroid density = 2080 kg/m3 (assumed)
gp is the surface gravity = 9.81 m/s2
R is the radius of the asteroid (assumed to be spherical) = 200 m
Ek is the kinetic energy of the impactor (2*π*R3*ρm*v2/3) = 3.485*1018 J
v is the impactor velocity = 10000 m/s (typical speed is assumed)
θ is the impact angle = 90o (assumed to give maximum crater diameter)

Chaos... orderly and deterministic but way too sensitive, as you know any slight change can lead to a significant change in the outcome. So... yeah, know what ya know, claculate what you want but be prepared.

I would say it's safe to speculate a collision, I would say it's safe to speculate just about anything. Keep in mind that out of the 982 mandated and detected NEO's there is an estimated 20%, I think, that have not even been found yet. So not only am I willing to speculate a non-predicted collision, I'd say it's safe to speculate a straight on collision someday... maybe not in my lifetime.

A collision is more realistic than any kind of gravitational effect, in my opinion.

Chaotic motion doesn't mean that objects make huge changes in direction over short distances. All it means is that tiny discrepancies in the calculated position and velocity can result in significant differences over extended periods of time. These "errors" are magnified if an object makes a close approach to a planet, but we have nothing to worry about with respect to 2005 YU55's close approach to Earth in November this year. The orbit has been computed to a high level of accuracy, and there is no chance of a collision.

reply to post by Mogget


Agreed. I didn't say "huge changes" I said "small" changes can have a significant impact.