If I were China right now...

And if they really, truly want to take Tawain back, it seems like there would be absolutely no better time than right now.

The first move would be to push their puppets in North Korea to launch an attack on South Korea. That would place the South Korean (and US positioned) forces as fully pre-occupied. Japan, currently crippled and unable to act as neither a deterrant nor an active partner in logistics, also has US warships and personel busy with recovery and humaintarian efforts.

Really, that leaves Taiwan nearly alone (or as alone as they will be in the coming months) and left to defend itself. They are no match for China's millitary might. The entire invasion/occupation would last no more than a week.

As an added twist, if the Chinese DO have some sort of weather manipulation/earthquake machine, expect them to push that button on either Hawaii (taking out the fleet at Pearl) or the US west coast.

While everyone thinks that the trigger point for WWIII is the Middle East, I think the Pacific could tumble just as easily. If the Chinese go after Taiwan, nothing will stop the Russians from reclaiming the many islands in dispute with Japan. Add to that, the massive instability in the Pacific theater gives just enough momentum for Pakistan and India to break out into a full shooting war.

... or maybe I just played too much Risk and Axis & Allies as a kid.

I just cant see that happening the world is in uproar as it is, China doing something like that would galvanise the people and they would be Nuked to oblivion. Put it another way, the US is secretly hoping for this, what better way to wipe the debt clean than to wipe out the Debtor. China has become an nation too big in scope to be aloud to continue down its current path. They are consuming far too much resources and people are now going off the cheap products and looking at other markets. I think due to this the Chinese will do nothing at the moment, this post could come back to haunt me but is the most educated and rational thing I can think will happen, is risky as China and rationality are not good bedfellows

well something to do with China plans, that China is preparing for war with India regarding the Tibet and Kashmir land disputes and as soon as they are done with us they are also planning to take over Pakistan...

And also I have heard that China is responding to 2012 as the end of the world = War... so expect something to come up from China in 2012...

Originally posted by On the level
I just cant see that happening the world is in uproar as it is, China doing something like that would galvanise the people and they would be Nuked to oblivion. Put it another way, the US is secretly hoping for this, what better way to wipe the debt clean than to wipe out the Debtor. China has become an nation too big in scope to be aloud to continue down its current path. They are consuming far too much resources and people are now going off the cheap products and looking at other markets. I think due to this the Chinese will do nothing at the moment, this post could come back to haunt me but is the most educated and rational thing I can think will happen, is risky as China and rationality are not good bedfellows

I can't imagine that this would cause the world to be in an uproar at all. If they weren't during the various crises (sp?) in North Africa, they probably wouldn't if the Chinese moved to retake Taiwan. Heck, you know that Russia, Iran, India, and probably even France wouldn't say 'boo.' In fact, the UN is STILL dithering around as to whether they should establish a no-fly zone over Libya, and that point is rather moot now as the 'rebels' have been all but crushed under Qaddaffi's bootheel.

The current world environment reminds me, in a lot of ways, of pre-WWII Europe. I think that the Chinese could slide into Taiwan much the same way that the Germans took Austria... with only slightly more bloodshed, but still with worldwide disinterest/dismissal.

Now, as you state, logic probably will prevail. I'm only war gaming here. That said, it's well known that the Chinese want Taiwan back. Depending on how badly they want it back, as I mentioned, there is really no time better than the present (unless you want to count on an even greater disaster to befall some nation in the Pacific -- and I'm counting the US here.)

Originally posted by sid1314
well something to do with China plans, that China is preparing for war with India regarding the Tibet and Kashmir land disputes and as soon as they are done with us they are also planning to take over Pakistan...

And also I have heard that China is responding to 2012 as the end of the world = War... so expect something to come up from China in 2012...

I expect the Chinese to manipulate the long-standing hatred between India and Pakistan to their advantage. A hot war between those two allows China justification to move their millitary into the region, and as bloody a war as is expected between the two nations, China can probably take both countries without firing a shot.

reply to post by larphillips


The difference between Libya and Japan is that America is Japans swore protector and therefore would be a completely different scenario; America would see this as an act of war and expansion by the Chinese and would strike accordingly. No nation could match the Chinese army toe to toe due to the numbers so the nukes would fly.

Originally posted by On the level
reply to post by larphillips

 

The difference between Libya and Japan is that America is Japans swore protector and therefore would be a completely different scenario; America would see this as an act of war and expansion by the Chinese and would strike accordingly. No nation could match the Chinese army toe to toe due to the numbers so the nukes would fly.

Yes, but this is Taiwan I'm talking about and not Japan. The US has been slowly and very deliberately backing away from Taiwan for a few years now. Sure, we're still more than happy to sell them our weapons, but as far as diving in and really taking a bullet for them, I think our devotion has waned a great deal. I think the US could find any number of excuses to not intervene on the behalf of the Taiwanese... but the disaster in Japan as well as my Korean scenario would be more than enough justifiable excuse to leave it alone.

reply to post by On the level


You do know China has enough nukes to wipe out America too? So i doubt that would be an option, in fact no military war will be fought between the big super powers of the world...less direct and brazen tactics will have to be used.

Well the Chinese can't afford to take Taiwan cause they are to busy amassing armies to the North and South of America on the Canadian and Mexican borders that only fanatical survivalists know about but no one else can seem to verify. Sorry I couldn't think of a better place to use the sarcasm that i have been wanting to express on this since I first heard about it yesterday and what better opportunity then another post about China!

On a serious note, I have to agree with you I am surprised as well. I have often told people that China is just waiting for a chance to take Taiwan. I think they are waiting for something more like when we are stretched as thin as we can be, and this seems to be happening lately. I mean troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, possibly moving into Libya. Now we have Saudi's violating the soveirnty of Bahrain, but at the request of the government in Bahrain. Iran talking Cyber war just all sorts of crapola floating around right now. It would seem that the time is nigh for China to commit to something when it comes to Taiwan.

On the other hand we still have nukes and they know we have nukes, so I would say they are probably still a bit cautious about pushing America especially at a time that we are stretched.

If I were China right now..

I'd be pissed. It must suck to have 3 Billion people inside you

china is more than happy to be in a full scale trade war with the rest of the world, they are trying to build themselves into the number one super power so stretching there military and creating enemies would be a very bad idea as they have probably learned from watching the us and from other lessons in history like the nazi's.
not sure why everyone thinks that china is ready to go to war with everyone when the biggest threat to world safety is the us and all its puppets.

Originally posted by lewman
china is more than happy to be in a full scale trade war with the rest of the world, they are trying to build themselves into the number one super power so stretching there military and creating enemies would be a very bad idea as they have probably learned from watching the us and from other lessons in history like the nazi's.
not sure why everyone thinks that china is ready to go to war with everyone when the biggest threat to world safety is the us and all its puppets.

China moving on Taiwan creates no more enemies than they already have. This really changes nothing for them. They don't even recognize Taiwan as an independent nation. In their minds, they would simply be flushing a rogue, rebel leadership from their own territory. At the worst, the US could only manage some sanctions. Not only would sanctions fail worldwide (who doesn't want to trade with the number one economy in the world?) but not even the US could surivive a total trade embargo with the Chinese.

"If I were China right now"

...I'd start selling all my treasury bonds back and flood global markets with U.S. Dollars and crash it, Since Japan should start selling it's T-bills back so that it can pay for it's reconstruction. That is the REAL threat! Why take back Tawain when you can just implode the U.S. economy and Tawain come running to you? This is the 21st Century, direct wars between major powers will not happen. The Chinese are not war crazy, gun toting Americans, subtley is much more prefered

Originally posted by Skerrako
"If I were China right now"

...I'd start selling all my treasury bonds back and flood global markets with U.S. Dollars and crash it, Since Japan should start selling it's T-bills back so that it can pay for it's reconstruction. That is the REAL threat! Why take back Tawain when you can just implode the U.S. economy and Tawain come running to you? This is the 21st Century, direct wars between major powers will not happen. The Chinese are not war crazy, gun toting Americans, subtley is much more prefered

That won't happen until China gets to the point where they no longer need America as the largest consumer of their goods. Unfortunately, as much of an anchor as we are around the neck of the Chinese, they need our economy to stay afloat... until they don't. Then all bets are off. But that time isn't now, and it isn't within the next 5-10 years.

OP, it seems your understanding of China is developed entirely from the mainstream media, rife as it is with "China's gonna invade Taiwan" nonsense. If you haven't noticed, China wishes to take back Taiwan peacefully a gradual strengthening of ties. Also, why would they attack South Korea? What proof do you have of a weather manipulation machine?

I think you have played too much Axis and Allies.

reply to post by Solomons

No, they don't. The majority of their missiles do not have sufficient range, so stop spreading disinformation.

Originally posted by finalword
OP, it seems your understanding of China is developed entirely from the mainstream media, rife as it is with "China's gonna invade Taiwan" nonsense. If you haven't noticed, China wishes to take back Taiwan peacefully a gradual strengthening of ties. Also, why would they attack South Korea? What proof do you have of a weather manipulation machine?

I think you have played too much Axis and Allies.

reply to post by Solomons

 

No, they don't. The majority of their missiles do not have sufficient range, so stop spreading disinformation.

I never said that the Chinese would attack South Korea.

I have no proof of a weather manipulation machine... I clearly stated "IF they had such a device..."

My understanding of China is far more developed than you think. "Peaceful, gradual strenghthening of ties??? Are you serious? Perhaps your entire understanding of China derives from their propoganda machine?

I clearly admit that I was basically war gaming.

reply to post by larphillips


Yes we are the largest consumers of their goods but eventually they will realize they could put their resources to better use in their own country. When the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, they will just sell to other untapped (by the Chinese) markets.

Originally posted by Skerrako
reply to post by larphillips

 

Yes we are the largest consumers of their goods but eventually they will realize they could put their resources to better use in their own country. When the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, they will just sell to other untapped (by the Chinese) markets.

I think you are right and I think they've been trying to move in that direction for a long time. They have begun to amass large stockpiles of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, etc.) as well as doing what they can to convert their US dollars over to commodities. I believe this is all in anticipation for a move as far away from the dollar as the reserve currency, as well as protection against the dollars they currently hold.

reply to post by larphillips


It's like the Chinese are saying "Shields up!" right before the U.S. currency bomb goes off