What if hurricane Earl does not turn North?

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by NovusOrdoMundi

 

The thing that gets me is how one sided the predictions are. No explanations, just this constant repeat that the storm will turn north.

Yes, in much the same was as when heavy snowfall is forecast in 3 days time, none of the news agencies suggest a heatwave is on the way

This is the problem the OP started the thread about.
According to this upper atmosphere steering chart Earl might stall and get pulled west toward the gulf early.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ac10a1c7e3c4.gif[/atsimg]

This is a 1500 UTC August 31st snapshot and the upper air patterns change over time. The large high over the southeast has been been building in for several days.

I was watching Canada AM this morning and they were talking about the different ways it could go. They are expecting it to hit Nova Scotia this weekend sometime.

Strange thing, they were saying it would lose some of its power and probably hit as a category 2.

Then after the Cdn news, I turned on CNN, to watch the American news, they had the same path projected, but the US news was saying it was going to pick up strength and come in as a category 4

There is still a heat wave going on in eastern Canada, not expected to cool down, except when the hurricane shows up. But yet these are totally opposing views of what will happen. Wait and see I guess.

reply to post by Bordon81


Thanks Bordon81, I was wondering why no one was seeing this.

This is a big hurricane right now, and it seems to be moving pretty slow.
so far it is continuing its westerly route, moving along side of the island chain. It has yet to makes its turn towards the North, and predicting hurricane paths is not very reliable.

www.huliq.com...

The islands have already felt the wrath of Earl and although storm tracks can change very quickly and without much warning, residents within the projected path of the storm are warned that early preparation is important, smart and necessary for the highest level of safety for you and your family.

As of the 5pm update by the NHC, Earl has started its turn north, currently heading Northwest at 14 mph. This is a dangerous storm, and needs to be closely watched. It is still projected to stay parallel to the coast, but any slight deviation, and this could be really horrible. Keep watching.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


and

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

edit for spelling

[edit on 31-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

I think the darn thing is gonna hit Virginia and Maryland! That is what I think and the weather channel just said the pressure zone is going to dip down further south causing Earl to move north and west which has it hitting the carolinas and possibly Virginia... We r not prepared here in Md and it could be bad very very very bad! Look at the devastaion Isabell caused in 2003! That was just a tropical storm when it hit us if this hits at va and moves north and west it will hit Baltimore and dc head on! It will be a complete mess!