What if hurricane Earl does not turn North?

The best connections are the paramedics and firefighters. They hear about it first before the public so they can prepare.

With all the wicked and highly abnormal snow storms we got, a local high school started getting a lot of attention because they were predicting the unpredictable very accurately.

I wish they had a website.

[edit on 30-8-2010 by nixie_nox]

The setup for early this week is depicted below. The front and its associated dip in the jet stream will move slowly through the Midwest. Meanwhile, high-pressure aloft will rebuild and stretch from the Atlantic to the Northeast.

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As we head towards the middle and late portion of the week, the cold front will approach the Northeast eroding and pushing high-pressure aloft out into the Atlantic. This will allow Hurricane Earl to take a more northerly route around this high as pictured below.

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Article

Click the link to read more of an explanation than what I posted. What's basically happening is the high pressure system is moving out to sea and it will swing the hurricane around it's clockwise flow.

They are emphasizing that an exact track is uncertain due to various factors in regards to the high pressure system, but they are fairly certain that it will not impact the Gulf of Mexico.

Those in the projected path of Hurricane Earl should watch Tropical Storm Fiona as well. It is currently predicted to take a similar path as Earl. They do not predict it to become a hurricane anytime in the near future due to wind shear but a few days from now as it approaches potentially making landfall that could change.

The projected path shows it could hit NYC. That 3 days from now. I would think that they might be a little concerned about this. Are they going to wait until thursday to see if its going to come close? You cannot evacuate NYC even if you started now. It just seems funny that this isn't mentioned. It makes sense to me and if I have thought of this then I guarantee someone who does this for a living has.

Heres a link that allows you to see the effect of the rise in sea level for an area

here

Heres a link of what would happen if a hurricane struck NY city. Basically says that a cat 3 storm would cutoff many major roads. Those that are cutoff would be underwater.

here

Heres some stats about NY city in a hurricane. Read through it and look at the part that talks about the Verrazano and Goerge washington bridge being closed down due to its height.
here




[edit on 30-8-2010 by jlafleur02]

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Nice to see someone who actually knows the subject on the thread. I have a considerable background in metrology, so I know enough to keep up.

I always thought hurricanes sought out warm water that feeds them, which is why so many veer into the Caribbean and the Gulf. Why would the hurricane veer into the colder Northern Atlantic.

Isn't cold air more dense, so wouldn't a cold front push Earl more west instead of north.

If you like discussing the subject, and don't mind hearing crackpot theories, I would like to hear more explanation.

Here is the site that shows all the most popular computer models:

www.sfwmd.gov...

BAMM
BAMS
BAMD
NGPS
and NHC (Nat. Hurricane Center)
are the most accurate models, based on observations over the years.

Earl is 'storm 07'.

Here is the Main NHC Plot websites use:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...?large#contents

Bookmark those two sites. They are excellent sources of info!


I would worry a LOT more about Invest 98. It's more south, and it's current track is west. It's name will be 'Gaston'...
www.wunderground.com...

[edit on 8/31/2010 by Pharyax]

Hurricanes happen in the gulf, that's a fact of life that TV has never done a very good job of hiding from me- in fact I don't even think they tried. And they know I'm still alive and would tell people that Hurricanes can happen in the gulf if they tried to deny it... So I'm guessing this one probably just isn't one of the one that is gonna go there.

reply to post by poet1b

Hurricanes don't "seek" anything. They get pushed around by surrounding systems. If they happen to run over warm water they tend to increase in intensity.

The influence of the high pressure area would tend to keep the storm heading more west than north but as it dissipates the low, which is moving west to east will reinforce a northerly track. High pressure areas have a clockwise rotation, lows rotate counterclockwise. This puts a strong northerly flow between the two systems. That's where the storm is likely to be directed.




[edit on 8/31/2010 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage


But hurricanes are fed by warm water, so they follow warm water, which is why so many go into the carribbean, and the gulf.

www.wunderground.com...

reply to post by poet1b

No. They don't "follow" warm water. Your source:

So, a key question each hurricane season is: when will the next Loop Current Eddy break off, creating a ready-made high-octane energy source for any hurricane that might pass by?

www.wunderground.com...

If they hit warm water they can intensify. If they hit cool water they can weaken.


[edit on 8/31/2010 by Phage]

There are a couple of lows behind the highs and if they are sitting on the coast and the highes move west the hurricane could jog in a little.
If the highs hold it in place that could be some fun if it is near or over population

I would watch the system map Thursday night, that should have a good say ahead of time.

reply to post by Phage


Sounds like a chicken or egg argument to me.

Not that science understands hurricanes and how or why they move in the directions they take.

The information so far provides no clear understanding of the phenomenon, but it does suggest they might move towards warm water sources where they grow stronger, like a fire moving towards a fuel source.

I don't even understand why this thread is still being discussed.

The jet stream and weather systems are primarily what direct storms. There's no argument there. That is fact.

This is the best analogy I can come up with to describe this: Say you have a fan and a piece of cloth. If you attach the piece of cloth to one of the blades of the fan and turn the fan on, what will happen is the piece of cloth will travel in the direction of the fan because the fan is 'steering' it that way.

Think of the high pressure system as that fan and the hurricane as that piece of cloth. If the hurricane gets caught up in that 'fan', it will be 'steered' around the high pressure system in the direction that the high pressure system is rotating. Since high pressure systems rotate clockwise, this would put Earl on a northwesterly track at first, but then as it began to move further up the circumference of the high pressure system, it would slowly take a north and eventually northeasterly track.

Hurricanes do not have minds of their own. They are guided by winds like all forms of clouds and precipitation.

If your theory about hurricanes following warm water was true, Danielle wouldn't have taken the track that it did.

reply to post by NovusOrdoMundi

If your theory about hurricanes following warm water was true, Danielle wouldn't have taken the track that it did.

Unless Danielle didn't get close enough to the warm seas to follow the fuel source.

Yes, and of course, the weather predictions are always right, so no one should ever question what we are being told.

Go back to sleep now, never mind the kicking around of some ideas.



[edit on 31-8-2010 by poet1b]

Originally posted by poet1b
reply to post by Phage

 

But hurricanes are fed by warm water, so they follow warm water, which is why so many go into the carribbean, and the gulf.

www.wunderground.com...

They dont follow warm water, they are fed by it. There's actually a subtle difference. While they thrive in warm water conditions, they lose that "feed system" when they cross cold water. There are many factors which affect hurricanes, which is why its so difficult to predict their track accurately.

Originally posted by SWCCFANThe better question would be what if the High moves east?

If that happens the storm will enter the GOM. That would not be good at all.

The upper level high over the Atlantic would have to move west, (it has been drifting west and even southwest) [or stay about where it is] to move at least toward Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

A further eastward movement of the high would create a south to north steering along the United States east coast, on the western periphery of the upper level high.

The system over the Northern Plains and even moreso the trough over the northwestern portion of the country is playing a role in the speed of the high across the East.

Originally posted by poet1b
Go back to sleep now, never mind the kicking around of some ideas.

It's obvious now that you are trolling to keep your thread alive. I won't bother participating in your game anymore. Your theory is wrong. End of discussion.

If it doesn't turn North then I can relax a bit and my daughter can have fun eating all the 'hurricane comfort food' I bought her - including packages of OREOS! Man .. I used to love those. I put them in the tupperware and smelled the chocolate and creme filling ... UGH! (frustration!) I'm freak'n hungry!

Anyways ,... if it doesn't turn North then good for us!
(bad for someone else)

It looks like this is going to be a very busy hurricane season. I guess now would be a good time for meteorologists to learn a great deal more about hurricanes.

www.bloomberg.com...

Forecasters are now watching another area of disturbed weather off the coast of Africa that has a 10 percent chance of becoming a storm in the next two days.

Rouiller said satellite images show other systems stacked up over Africa ready to move to sea.

“Clear across Africa they are lined up, there is a conveyor belt and we don’t see an end to it,” Rouiller said. “We could be in this for a while.”

reply to post by poet1b


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