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Study: Attack on Iran would be 'start of long war'

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posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 08:32 AM
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Study: Attack on Iran would be 'start of long war'


rawstory.com

An Israeli attack on Iran would fail to stop Tehran's alleged nuclear weapons program and would lead to a "long war" that would be marked by economic instability and mass civilian casualties, says a study from British think tank.

In a report (PDF) released Wednesday, the Oxford Research Group stated that, while the likelihood of a US attack on Iran's nuclear program has been lessened by the Obama administration's policies, advances in Israeli military technology have increased the potential f
(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 08:32 AM
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Read the report here.


The study, entitled "Military Action Against Iran: Impact and Effects," also argues that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would galvanize the Iranian public behind the leadership of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and give the regime in Tehran more support and rationale for developing nuclear capabilities.

"An Iranian administration under attack would experience considerable national unity and would work rapidly to redevelop its weapons programs, withdrawing from the NPT and prioritizing nuclear weapons," the report states.

As a result of that, the study concluded, Israel would be forced into repeatedly attacking Iranian facilities, "resulting in prolonged conflict -- the start of a long war with potential regional and global consequences."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


It looks like the Oxford Research Group is now saying what many ATS members have been saying for a long time now. What this report doesn't mention, is the inclusion of others who might chose to side with Iran, such as Turkey and possibly other developing super-powers, such as China, due to the oil reserves in Iran.

While I think that China siding with Iran is unlikely, I don't think it's impossible. With that being said, I'm more inclined to believe that Turkey would side with Iran which would be a great loss to the US, seeing how Turkey is one of our most important allies in that region.

In any event, the report does talk about a long drawn out war with many civilian casualties for the Iranians. It is also very likely that oil prices would sky-rocket do to certain strategic locations and possible rocket attacks on western oil infrastructure.

This inevitable war (IMO) seems like a very bad idea and the more i research the possible consequences, the more I'm really against the idea. Unfortunately, it looks like it's going to happen anyway, as Israel seems to only care about her own agenda and we all know what that means, irregardless of whether you support that agenda or not.

--airspoon


***Edited to add:

This report is talking more about an Israeli bombing run, not so much an American invasion as in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many people believe that an Israeli air-raid could be quick and relatively painless, since Israel seemed to accomplish such a goal in Iraq. This report is about a supposed Israeli air-raid, not a ground invasion led by the US.



rawstory.com
(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 15-7-2010 by airspoon]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 08:53 AM
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I understand the globalist plan is for wars that have no clear objective and so can't be won or lost or even ended...I think Smedly Butler explains it well..he was commandant of the Marine corps
here is his book..

he testified before congress that the bushes tried to hire him to conduct a military coup in the US...what we are seeing is their "plan B"


WAR IS A RACKET
Written by Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Recipient
Major General Smedley D. Butler
USMC, Retired
In the World War [I] a mere handful garnered the profits of the conflict. At least 21,000 new millionaires and billionaires were made in the United States during the World War. That many admitted their huge blood gains in their income tax returns. How many other war millionaires falsified their tax returns no one knows.

lexrex.com...

the bilderbergers voted for this war...BP wants their oil back...Brezynski wants Russia ringed...this war looks like a continuation of the long term plan of hegemony..and greed..and hate for regular folks

sorry for the edits I was interupted mid post

here iss the smedley Butler society on Iran
www.warisaracket.org...


[edit on 15-7-2010 by Danbones]

[edit on 15-7-2010 by Danbones]

[edit on 15-7-2010 by Danbones]

[edit on 15-7-2010 by Danbones]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 08:57 AM
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Oxford Research Group in stating the obvious shocker.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:02 AM
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reply to post by jonny2410
 


It might be obvious to us, but not so much to the majority of Americans or even Israelis. Regardless, it is always good to have a valid study behind such claims. It never hurts to have well thought out research behind a senario, irregardless of whether or not it conforms to your own research and/or beliefs.

--airspoon



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:16 AM
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Originally posted by Danbones

he testified before congress that the bushes tried to hire him to conduct a military coup in the US...what we are seeing is their "plan B"

Clear this part up for me, please.

You are saying that the 'Bushes' tried to hire him to conduct a military coup?

What Bushes?

Smedley D. Butler died in 1940.




The plot was called 'The Business Plot' (it happened in 1933), and I do not see the implication of anyone named Bush.

Link to Business plot wiki page:








[edit on 15-7-2010 by butcherguy]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:17 AM
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Anyone who could ever think this would be a "short war" or some kind of "conflict", especially considering Post-Iraq/Afghanistan (or shall I say currently on-going), is relatively, a seriously thick bastard.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:21 AM
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PERPETUAL WAR = PERPETUAL PROFITS
AUSTERITY = PROSPERITY!
FREEDOM IS ON THE MARCH!



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:26 AM
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I think what this article is getting at, what would seem to be a quick bombing raid by Israel, wouldn't be so quick at all. Many people seem to think that Israeli war-planes will fly in, hit their targets and fly off back home, just as they did in Iraq.

I don't think anyone doubts that a US led ground invasion would be quick, but many do believe that a quick bombing raid by Israel would be just that, quick.

--airspoon

[edit on 15-7-2010 by airspoon]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:34 AM
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reply to post by butcherguy
 

Which Bushes?
The bush grand father that worked for the Harrimans - the Bush that was charged in regards to working ( banking for) with Hitler BTW...

Again sorry for the garbled post I added links that will clear up why I posted this specific to the Iran war...

Sorry for the confusion
check the links - they sum things up specifically and over all IMHO.

And I agree with Airspoon above
This is not about a quick strike this is about imperial conquest and a never ending presence I was just trying to back my Opinion up with some back ground



[edit on 15-7-2010 by Danbones]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:37 AM
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I have to admit feeling that any strike on Iran by Isreal would create a whole heap of issues that would be difficult to manage, not least the risk of it escalating into a wider conflict very quickly. (which I suspect it would)

Pushing the potential death toll that such a strike could inflict to one side for the moment, one of the many issues Western Govs would have to deal with right away, and is least discussed would be the dangerous position such a strike would put Western civilians in.

You only has to look back at the evacuation of Lebanon where Britain evacuated some 4,500 citizens and the US somehwere in the region of 15,000 citizens to see the kind of issues such a strike would create for Western Governments.

Ramp up those types of numbers to include the areas at risk (Syria, Lebanon, Iran etc) and the numbers of Western civilians put at risk by such a strike would I suspect fall into many tens of thousands.

While in this situation any Western Warships that went to collect and ferry civilians to saftey would be viewed with utmost caution at best, if not I suspect they would be fired upon, So even the evacuation process could itself escalate the conflict.

Links to related articles on the Lebanon evacuations.
news.bbc.co.uk...
www.cbc.ca...
www.usatoday.com...

All I can say to the whole idea of a lone attack by Israel is that it would be utterly, well, disasterous for all concerned.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:44 AM
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BBC: Bush's Grandfather Planned Fascist Coup In America
New investigation sheds light on clique of powerbrokers, including Prescott Bush, who sought to overthrow U.S. government and implement Hitlerian policies

www.prisonplanet.com...

I realize what I am saying appears tangential to the OP
but I am trying to show this is a long standing plot.
so a short incident is NOT the plan.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:48 AM
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reply to post by airspoon
 


I kind of find it offensive that they think Iran's people would automatically side with their president if the US invaded.

The Iranians are a good people. They would just say screw you to both.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:56 AM
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reply to post by Gorman91
 


If you think about it, it's true. Look what happened when the US was attacked, the people rallied around their leader. Remember, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected President, not a dictator as the MSM would have us believe. The Iranian people are good people, so I would suspect that they would support their leaders if attacked, especially if the attack was wholly unwarranted.

--airspoon



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:57 AM
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The Bushehr nuclear plant has Russian nationals working in it, and I believe also their families housed nearby.

Russia will not be very happy about an attack on their citizens as we have seen with the Georgia conflict. So depending on the timing of the attack this is a very dangerous situation indeed. The reactor is to go online by this September so I wouldn't expect to see any action before then.

However if we see the unexpected pull out of Russian nuclear scientists before then, this could be an ominous indication somethings underway.

[edit on 15-7-2010 by Big Raging Loner]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 09:58 AM
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Israel probably won't be drawn into a long drawn out war because the following MAY happen:

Israel conducts air strikes.

Iran retaliates.

US steps in saying "while we're here trying to mug the whole region in the name of democracy, we might as well carry on the fight for you, just so you don't go mental and nuke our oil"

So, in reality, it will be the US that (again) does what Israel wants, while the zionists sit back and giggle at their stupidity.



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 10:14 AM
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Originally posted by butcherguy
Clear this part up for me, please.

You are saying that the 'Bushes' tried to hire him to conduct a military coup?

What Bushes?



Probably Prescott Bush and his Nazi connection.

www.abovetopsecret.com...


Document uncovers details of a planned coup in the USA in 1933 by right-wing American businessmen

The coup was aimed at toppling President Franklin D Roosevelt with the help of half-a-million war veterans. The plotters, who were alleged to involve some of the most famous families in America, (owners of Heinz, Birds Eye, Goodtea, Maxwell Hse & George Bush’s Grandfather, Prescott) believed that their country should adopt the policies of Hitler and Mussolini to beat the great depression.

Mike Thomson investigates why so little is known about this biggest ever peacetime threat to American democracy.

www.bbc.co.uk...



How Bush's grandfather helped Hitler's rise to power

George Bush's grandfather, the late US senator Prescott Bush, was a director and shareholder of companies that profited from their involvement with the financial backers of Nazi Germany.
The Guardian has obtained confirmation from newly discovered files in the US National Archives that a firm of which Prescott Bush was a director was involved with the financial architects of Nazism.

His business dealings, which continued until his company's assets were seized in 1942 under the Trading with the Enemy Act, has led more than 60 years later to a civil action for damages being brought in Germany against the Bush family by two former slave labourers at Auschwitz and to a hum of pre-election controversy.

The evidence has also prompted one former US Nazi war crimes prosecutor to argue that the late senator's action should have been grounds for prosecution for giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

www.guardian.co.uk...



The Bush family, in the form of Prescott Bush, has tried a more aggressive coup before in order to install fascism in this country. This treasonous plot was called "the Business Plot," because the high-level plotters - including Prescott Bush - were Wall Street men who openly supported fascism.

www.huffingtonpost.com...



The Bush-Nazi Connection


Also very interesting information about the rise of Hitler with the help of certain Americans and their Banks & Corporations.

Professor Antony Sutton: Wall Street & the rise of Hitler 1



[edit on 15-7-2010 by Chevalerous]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 10:26 AM
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I have this funny feeling that Israel isn't going to do quick strikes of the facilities because they and the U.S. are simply not sure whether or not Iran already has some tactical nukes.

As for a long war...it would only be a continuation with extreme complications if this long was we're already in in the Middle East and Central Asia. it's going to be a LOT longer, seeing as a lot more countries are left on the list (Syria, the baby-stans, and probably even Pakistan) before we "secure" access to those gas, water, and oil pipelines and all the other chokepoints along the way to Asia, to control the goods flow to India and China.

It does make sense that this administration's policies have probably delayed the strikes as well, but that only increases the chances that Israel will go it rogue and also, this is preordained. They've waited a long time and can and will out wait this administration...or worse...should they get desperate about the lack of progress. .

reply to post by Gorman91
 


You read the poll (here)about what the Iranian people think and feel about this situation. And how they already pretty much are behind the president.

[edit on 7/15/2010 by ~Lucidity]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 10:29 AM
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reply to post by Chevalerous
 
Thank you and Danbones for the added links.

Cleared things up re: bushes.



[edit on 15-7-2010 by butcherguy]



posted on Jul, 15 2010 @ 10:37 AM
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I think it would be rather short....

Israeli will attack Iranian nuclear sites, Iran will launch EVERY missile they have at USraeli targets destroying every American war ship in the gulf.. US military will tell Obama there is no choice now but to use Nuclear Bombs, and Tehran will be crying to UN for the madness to stop.

2 weeks.



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