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Russian scientist says New Ice Age 'to begin in 2014'

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posted on May, 19 2010 @ 04:26 PM
Habibullo Abdussamatov is the head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.
Speaking at the Heartland Institute's Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago , Abdussamatov said that that a new Little Ice Age could begin as early as 2014.

"If the Astrometria project is developed in time," Abdussamatov said, "we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and the depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity." Abdussamatov's theory is that "long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods."

In his capacity of the head of the Russian-Ukrainian project "Astrometria" on the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Abdussamatov is conducting additional research to refine his prediction that a new Little Ice Age will begin in 2014.

"Observations of the sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is 'not guilty,'" Abdussamatov wrote, "and as for what lies ahead in the coming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged temperature drop."
Given the severity of the winter we in the UK have just experienced I wouldn't bet against him

[edit on 19-5-2010 by gortex]

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 04:38 PM
In geological circles, large amounts of opinion certainly lead to a little ice age and a cooling process. Interesting though how he can nail a date.

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 04:44 PM
Well I've noticed a BIG difference in weather in SoCal this year compared to just last year. It's almost june and our average days have been below 70 degrees and many so far in may have been cloudy. It gets much cooler at night this year it seems like.

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 04:50 PM
Same here in the UK , we have had the coldest winter in something like 60 years and up until the last few days temps have been way down on the norm .
It may be time to stock up on thermal underwear before the price rockets

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 05:19 PM
Last summer it was like spring all summer long...that's not normal around here. And this summer it's been the same so far. Only a few days have been summer like here. Actually, I had to turn the heat on the past two nights... I don't recall ever having a summer that was so cool at night that I had to turn the heat on.
Maybe they are on to something?

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 05:42 PM
reply to post by gortex

Thanks for the post Gortex! I ran across a related analogy that really made me think! You know we all have, in the back of our mind, some type of survival plan if S#*# hit s the fan. Food, water, shelter radio etc. One thing though I have not prepared for, mentally or physically, is what to do if you wake up and your house is buried under 9 STORIES of snow. Doh!!!! That scenario has never been contemplated by me, til now. Anyway, I think this article is interesting and relative, although I take it with a grain of salt!


[edit on 19-5-2010 by speculativeoptimist]

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 05:43 PM
Well, throughout April the Sun heated Southwestern Ontario's atmosphere by at least 15 degrees. Like, I'm talking blazing heat, not humidity.. 27-34 C mid April.

Just sayin.

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 05:51 PM
The north east New England area,New Hampshire and Vermont, have experienced a similar pattern from our previous summer through present. I'll add that the 2008 winter was especially cold followed by a very abbreviated and suddenly hot and sticky summer. The summers are short up here but that was something like 2 weeks. Rubbish.

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 06:13 PM
reply to post by speculativeoptimist

I know what you mean , I to have my if the worst happens escape plan , and no it didn't include a scenario such as this .......... time to rethink and plan for ALL eventualities .

Forewarned is forearmed .

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 06:24 PM
So much for Global Warming!

Haha, wonder if this will be our fault somehow and we have to be taxed to 'prevent' it.

[edit on 19-5-2010 by Trying Times]

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 06:43 PM
Interesting post. I think there are one or two other climatologists saying the same thing. One I read of said that it could be at its coldest by about 2030 with glaciers in the Scottish and Welsh mountains. It would be over by about mid-century by which time global warming will really kick in.

It's my understanding these mini Ice Age's tend to be quite regular every 250-500 years and happen on and off between the big ones. I have to say - I think this, (along with rogue asteroids), are some of the biggest threats to our civilisation. I think mass crop failures in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere could be the biggest concern.

And yes, the last two winters in the UK have been unusually cold plus we've had three summers that were a wash out. Normally we should expect one summer in three to be blazing hot here. Coincidence?

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 06:45 PM
the 80's were going to be the start of a new ice age, then 2000-2010 the world was quickly "warming" now its an ice age again...

when will we humans realize we cant predict squat.

posted on May, 19 2010 @ 07:43 PM
Reply to post by stopthathurts

I'm also in New England, specifically Connecticut, and have noticed the cooler temperatures over the last few years. Last year we really did just have 2 weeks of summer, and the rest of the time it was raining and in the 60's during the day. I can't believe I had to use my heater a couple times since April.
My room mate said they saw snowflakes one morning around 7pm near the end of April.

As this is all going on the weather channel is trying to tell us we have been hitting record high temps for this time of year. I disagree but will have to check the previous years temps to double check for myself.

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posted on May, 19 2010 @ 07:55 PM
Well i'd sooner trust a Russian claim than some other countries. Russia just gets to the point!

But i'd prefer it not get colder here! its cold enough already! (NZ south island)

posted on May, 20 2010 @ 12:27 AM
To all of you - your weather has no bearing on climate - they are distinct things - this is why weather forecasters are irrelevant.

Global warming is a trend - hence a massive fall in temp for one or two seasons has no bearing on the overall trend - NONE. It is completely irrelevant - it is like raising the issue of Turnips during a debate a arms reduction - its ridiculous and only notifies everyone that you are unaware of the issues.

Secondly the primary reason for Ice ages are two well documented, well understood phenomenon based on the physics of earths orbit - the first of these is a 20,000 year variation in our orbit as our ELIPSE is not a circle - hence the earth occasionally creeps closer to the sun creating warmer cycles, other times Ice ages - there is also a WOBBLE in our rotation along that elliptical course which imparts another variable through the proximity of earth to the sun.

Finally the other major factor is Carbon - we had massive quantities in the past which radically effected our climate - the most recent massive warming period preceding the great extinction was due to India traversing the Indian ocean - this through up HUGE quantities of Carbon - also sub-ducted a lot - however as it crashed into and created the Himalayas there was a massive release - this was the spike and things started to cool again as the C02 dropped.

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