Convinced stock market WILL NOT be allowed to breach 10,000

Every week i am becoming more and more convinced that the administration's number one goal is to maintain the perception that WE ARE IN A RECOVERY....and over the past decade as the financial system has become more and more part of the economy....people have been taught to associate the stock market direction = economy direction

Now the fed has done a good job to prevent/stave off the 2'nd great depression.....they have come up with all these gaurantee's to make sure the financial system is not in recession and the gov't which is trying to get re-elected (and help financial system) and stave off a re-inforcing negative cycle of unemployment and dwindling consumption...(and more writeoffs and defaults for banks)it has been my intention the fed has been propping up the stock market (particularly buying futures at critical times of technical support) www.marketoracle.co.uk...

not that i'm angry at this...it just creates complacency which is a sort of "kryptonite" of real financial reform.....not like real reform really has a chance with the layers upon layers of conflict of intrest between public and private office that has been established at every level of gov't during the past 3-4 administrations.

It has been observed that most of the gains in the stock market has extrodinarily been made after hours in the future markets (during the last few months) and in addition to this oddity the usualy "suspects" responsible for buying have not been net buyers in anywhere large enough quantities to account for the money flowing into equities.....it seems (with good reason) the fed / treasury/ has been using borker accounts at primary dealer banks....has been buying equities to booster consumer confidence and help recapitalize banks and going forward it seems like a safe bet that stocks won't BE allowed to breach much lower than the psychologically important (10,000) level on the Dow.

Anyone come to similiar conclusions.....


also they could close below 10,000 for a day or so but nothing sustained in my opinon.....unless of course the banks are in need to billions upon billion more

[edit on 1-2-2010 by cpdaman]

I disagree with your after hours part.

Unlike most bull markets all of our gains have mostly came from morning/afternoon sessions and not futures overnight buying.

Other than that, it's open to interpretation.

Consider this and the fact that there are laws against the govs participation in the markets.
However maybe they could loan money to larger, too-big-to-fail friends and they could invest for us.

Order 12631

Executive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets

Source: The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted.

By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:
(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;
(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;
(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and
(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.
(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group.
Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes.
Sec. 3. Administration. (a) The heads of Executive departments, agencies, and independent instrumentalities shall, to the extent permitted by law, provide the Working Group such information as it may require for the purpose of carrying out this Order.
(b) Members of the Working Group shall serve without additional compensation for their work on the Working Group.
(c) To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions.

I can't even begin to challenge GreenBicMan on markets but my two cents is that it doesn't just magically float around 10,000 without being propped up.

You're tackling alot of topics without any sources and with poor phrasing (no offense) so I'd like to see you elaborate on your theories but with references to some charts and the like.

Btw, I am not saying you are wrong, but think of it this way.

When in history have we had 0% rates and a weak(er) dollar and not have the stock market go up?

FED President in Kansas City is calling for higher rates. He was the first I believe in this last FOMC meeting, that combined with Obama hating banks IMO has made this last little market decline going on here (before today).

Mondays are mutual fund buying days though, so if you disregard today I am anxious for the rest of the week.

It's going to be impossible IMO anyways to pin this whole market rise on anyone. At the same time anyone can get caught short or long no matter what side you have been on last 12 months. So called professionals -> retail morons like myself will all get pounded most likely one way or another unless we are standing in the pits following big money players, and that is assuming we are not following their hedges and can see right through to their true positions.

Best bet IMO would be to stay out of equities until we see our next real move.. prob. just get caught in the whipsaw.

[edit on 1-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I disagree with your after hours part.

Unlike most bull markets all of our gains have mostly came from morning/afternoon sessions and not futures overnight buying.

Other than that, it's open to interpretation.

hmm....not so sure bout that....but i definitely respect your opinion...and believe you are usually correct...take a look at this;

S($*( can't find it and have to eat then go to work ...but there was an article written....that over some multi month period all of the gains were basically from futures (i believe it was the september-early january time frame) and that regular hours had a basically flat market ....while i think the period before that had shenanigans going on that seasoned day traders could spot (intraday)

not sure if it's also buried in this...but there is a detailed article and i will find it

www.zerohedge.com...

www.scribd.com...

but Greenbicman ....how would this potential belief effect your trading philosophy and wouldn't alot of people start catching on


[edit on 1-2-2010 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


I came to the conclusion of manipulation a while back, it doesn't take genius or guru to predict what is going on in the Markets and the economic recovery.

While our government may think that many Americans have no clue of what goes on with our nations economy I believe they are death wrong, people are not dump or stupid people are just a littler bit slow to actually digest all the crap coming our from the finanicial markets and our government.

All people needs to know is who are the buyers, thats all the need to know . . . the rest will fall in places.



[edit on 1-2-2010 by marg6043]

reply to post by cpdaman


I watch the markets everyday, and I can tell you we have not had these gains from after hours futures gains.

Even if we did (and we have of course, would be impossible not to), that's where the pro's play because we (we could) dont play with the high margin afterhours req's overnight. As I see it most days we have been lower heading to open then see it bought all up from the morning.

Zerohedge is quite an interesting site if you are there to solidify your bias towards the market being rigged. IMO whoever runs that site feeds on people that have been burned in the market, and because their ego is so big, there is no way they could be wrong, so blame it on JPM etc...

Economics 101. When the people are not spending, and investors are not investing, the federal government must spend to stablize the financial system...if not, then yes...we go into a depression.

There will be a tipping point. People will start spending freely again (hopefully a bit more carefully than before), investors will invest again (hopefully with the understanding of a slower return), and the fed will stop spending and start paying off its bills it accumulated during the spending times.

The ironic part of this is, if you (nation) is fearful about a recession and if your even going to have a job next week...the best thing you can do for the health of the nation is to go out and...spend.
Its when people become nervous and start banking their money is when actual problems start to occur.

green bic man ....forget and negative connotations you hold about zero hedge i'm not one of his regular followers...just remember that tyler was saying since mid september nearly all gains have come during futures trading....

don't throw the baby out w/ the bath water

how bout this as far as manipulation goes

Trimtab's ceo Charles biderman.....lays out some basic's do you have a problem with the way he portray's this..

www.marketoracle.co.uk...



[edit on 1-2-2010 by cpdaman]

reply to post by SaturnFX


Exactly !!!!!!! that is what is going on right now, like I say it doesn't take a genius or a guru to understand the hidden agenda behind the so call recovery announcements.

America is a nation or until two years ago, it was a nation of consumers driven by credit and loans, now with unemployment and no longer the credit lines people are not buying, the only ones doing the buying is the government because if they don't fill the void of the consumers we are heading to financial meltdown.

But what the government is not telling is how they are going to create long term jobs to keep the consumer spending, they have not idea and no clue, eventually everything is going to reach a point in which the government will not be able to keep up filling the void.

Personally I have seen nothing yet that can stop the runaway train that our economy has become.

It is true that many considers the stock market as a sign of direction of the economy. Much of the economy depends on trade and services sector, therefore if there is a boom in such sectors, it will be translated and reflected onto the stock exchange board through investment capital - buying of shares.

There has been rumours and talks that such upward signs are not reflective of the actual economy, even by heads of TARP. However, their analysis is based upon science and statistical interpretation, and is absolutely wrong.

Money and its circulation is not and had never been based on science. It is and had been always, based on CONFIDENCE. Why do people trust that US dollar, or Yuan, or Euro? It is just a piece of paper. Why would anyone in the world give you their goods in exchange of that piece of paper.

It is said that the piece of paper can be exchange for liquid assets at the Feds, or so the theory claims. But how many people had done that? Thus, it is not science, but confidence in that paper, and everything else about economies is based entirely on confidence.

So, do not under-estimate confidence. It takes confidence to spend that dollar and thereby circulating it to the next person and then the next. To have no confidence is to dump the papers and go back to bater trade for one's need or to hoard it up.

Therefore, as long as there is confidence, as seen on the stock exchanges, and companies do have REAL funds to expand, it would mean buying and selling, with jobs being created. Companies that fail will fold up, realizing labour to go get employed by better and expanding companies.

This is not a lie, or rose tinted glass perceptions, but a reality. Govts around the world had pumped trillions into companies, not necessarily onto stock exchanges. Reforms and protectionistic measures are taking place.The stock exchanges merely reflects that liquidity and situation to move forward.

And it will be up to the masses' confidence to move forward too, instead of rolling over and play dead. It will be yours and my job to help give confidence to others whom are in fear.

reply to post by cpdaman


There is a problem with what this guy is saying.

Think about the last big boom in late 90's.

Every morning I woke up futures were basically limit UP in the morning.

I have not seen that one time, in fact I have not seen futures up in the morning over 100-150 on the DOW.

Futures trade 24/5 except for a break after 4:00. So basically all the time is futures trading time. His outlook is inherently flawed, and IMO totally incorrect.

Like I said, other than that, everything is open to interpretation.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by cpdaman

 

There is a problem with what this guy is saying.

Think about the last big boom in late 90's.

Every morning I woke up futures were basically limit UP in the morning.

I have not seen that one time, in fact I have not seen futures up in the morning over 100-150 on the DOW.

Futures trade 24/5 except for a break after 4:00. So basically all the time is futures trading time. His outlook is inherently flawed, and IMO totally incorrect.

Like I said, other than that, everything is open to interpretation.

are u talking about durden or the other guy?

the gains have largely been of the slow and steady variety (except for a 7 percent correction a few months back) and then the correction last week......we don't need anything to be plus 100/150 in the morning ..to validate what he said...just goose futures enough to establish the up trend but anyway this is more of a side note....regarding what my opinion is regarding the need for the administration to keep stock market prices inflated to solidy the perception of a economic recovery......and the fed does have the lawful means....besides it can be seen in the interest of national security

reply to post by cpdaman


I'm not sure which guy, I refuse to even go to his website to be honest.

What conclusion is being drawn with this information? That markets are manipulated because futures move overnight? I have a hard time agreeing what that regardless.

If you take the lows and highs and divide by 2 you get our current price level. IMO right where we should be, at dow 6800 we were priced for destruction and we know at 14000 it was much much overvalued.

Thinking 6-18 months ahead, as the market does continually repricing future risk, this makes sense at least for right now, again IMO.

One thing people don't understand is this:

The STOCK MARKET has NOTHING to do with the economy.

It is ONLY related to foreign investments and corporations.

ok this thread is really not going anywhere.

its open to interpretation.

I just think it is intersting that the financial stock market has become so politicized to indicate the economic recovery that america is desperate to have it's citizens believe is occuring....and i'm am thankful that the markets IMO are propped up ...in a sense ...but then not because it serves to give complacency which allows the lobbyists to overpower the populist ourtage and gain the upper hand with lawmakers so that another crisis is likely in the future.

The author of the article the OP linked is asking where did all the money come from to drive stocks up, as if it takes billions to move the market.

In fact, there doesn't need to be a whole lot of new money to levitate the stocks. Think about this.... most of your friends don't trade, they just buy and hold. Every two weeks when the paychecks get sent out, your friends have money withheld to invest in their retirement plans. That money is always flowing in to some mutual fund or whatever, just constantly getting pumped in.

On top of that, two traders can buy from each other all day long and make a stock price rise. Volume is meaningless in a sense. Somebody told me a long time ago that a market can keep going up without many buyers as long as nobody is selling.

Is it rigged? Heck yeah! It is a conspiracy of synchronized consciousness.

When the market turns down, the cash is actually coming out. Then you look to see where it is going. Your friends are still holding for 30 or 40 years, but the active traders are taking money and moving it into other vehicles.

It is a serious dog-chases-tail scenario, but I'll say one more thing....

Active traders move a market price, they move the starting point, then others decide to put cash in or take cash out. The amount of cash coming out (money needed NOW) can be equal to the amount of cash going in (money needed in the future) and the price (the line the traders drew) stays the same.

If more cash is needed then pressure can push the price down.

The price can rise for 8 months in a row, all the while people taking out cash (the cash which comes in from the public buying into retirement).

When the markets turn down, the cash is really coming out fast. And the starting point is being lowered as time goes by. That is why a point is eventually reached where price is so low that you can buy a lot of shares for the money and hence volume skyrockets until people convince themselves that there is so much interest in this stock stuff that we better turn around and start buying.

It is all timed carefully, and it all creates the illusion of random chaos, but in fact it really creates the cycle that top level businessmen take advantage of in order to run their individual businesses.

It is like sailing. You are using the wind to your advantage.

If a business CEO and CFO don't know the cycle the business can easily get blown onto the rocks.

I used to always wonder how some companies always win. I know now. It is something very deep in the matrix.