How much of 'this stuff' is true?

I just had an idea, while watching Derren Browns show, he was talking about the idea of "Wisdom of the crowd", and a particular experiment by Galton, you can read a little about the idea here:

en.wikipedia.org...

The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts).

So, my idea, is how about we all predict how much of the information on ATS is true, and hopefully, if the idea has merit and can be applied here, we'd get an answer that will be interesting.

So, the question is:

How much of the information on the ATS website is true?

Please give an answer as a percentage, from 0-100, and it would also be best if you don't look at the existing answers before you guess, as that might be too big an influence on you.

Once the thread seems to have died out a little, I'll (and you can too) get the calculator out, and see what we come up with...

[edit on 11/9/2009 by harpsounds]

Would this work though, i mean, Derren is finding consistencies in randomness, and using it to predict the future.

Wouldn't we just be verifying the past?

Surely it would be too influenced by personal opinions?

Anyway, i like the idea, and its worth a go

14% is my answer.

Reply to post by harpsounds

It's an interesting idea, but to me it still remains as speculation.

However, in regards to keeping this thread afloat, I will supply you with my estimation.

I am going to say roughly 35% of what ATS has to offer is valid. The only reason I cannot go higher than that is because I believe most areonly half truths. If I were to estimate the percentage of "half truths" I would have to put it at around 65%.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out.

A2D


Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

Thanks guys. I think they are interesting points you raise, it may not be a perfect method, it may well be prone to some flaws, but I think it would be a fun and interesting thing to try.

My guess, which I didn't want to put in my post in case it influenced is 10%.

OK I'll bite. This is an interesting experiment.

Maybe we could also add a vote button to all threads and see what comes up.

On a side note though, should this be done blind, as those that have voted already will influence the ones about to?

Anyway, my vote is about 25%.

I'll bite.......

Only problem for me is that I do not read everything on this site. There are far to many different forums and threads for me to read. It would take forever.

So........

10%

You also have to factor in the ATS-phenomenon, where if ATS mentions a future event is to occur, that future event is less likely to occur, and is inversely proportional to the amount of doom predicted.

Originally posted by American_Soviets
You also have to factor in the ATS-phenomenon, where if ATS mentions a future event is to occur, that future event is less likely to occur, and is inversely proportional to the amount of doom predicted.

That's great! You gotta love the Scientific Method!
Now express that mathematically and we are getting somewhere!
I vote 10%

I think that everyone needs to do their fair share of research before questioning any video. If you are just going to watch one video and have a bad attitude about a certain persons take on a certain situation, then do not bother watching or reading it.

for a collection of some great videos to get u started
wwww.mediaslaves-buggin.blogspot.com

I'd say 5% tops. Almost all the future predictions don't happen.

You should probably break it down by category bc anything in skunkworks is 1%. All others I would say 10%

-E-

If it has the word reptilian, hybrid, shapeshifter, serpo, etc... then the answer is 0%

I'm going to pipe in on the 10% as well (and I did come to that conclusion before reading the other posts in the Thread).

I do believe that the majority of what is presented on ATS is *BELIEVED* to be true by those that post it, but faith and belief do not necessarily make something undeniably True.

As far as the Predictions on ATS, I'd say the percentage is far lower than 10%...maybe 1 in a 10000 (and generally only because someone will jokingly predict that tomorrow the sun will rise and an unnamed politician will be caught in a scandal).

It takes a great deal of discernment and incredulity to deny ignorance!

15% in my opinion. I think we would be surprised if we could see what is actually true and what is actually false. I bet some of the most crazy threads would turn out to be true, and some of the things we consider credible would turn out false. I am interested to see the result of this thread.

I'd say 0.15% +/- 0.1%

As the only predictions that come true are the sarcastic comments that say "I predict the sun will rise tomorrow".

There's been many general predictions that don't really count because not enough specifics were predicted, or where there's been so many guesses for an event, one will eventually tend to be true!

Although if all predictions were based on at least a partly logical aproach, rather than wild speculation based on youtube videos a lot of the time, then I would put this figure around 25% at least. I've made a few predictions on the more real life stuff and probably got around that figure at least, but that's usually too boring for most people in comparison to all the alien and end of the world predictions!


[edit on 11-9-2009 by john124]

reply to post by john124


The question wasn't about predictions.

So, the question is:
How much of the information on the ATS website is true?

Not specifically the predictions people make, but ALL the information on ATS....how much is true?

reply to post by harpsounds


12%

I say about 10 percent.

As another poster mentioned, it can be broken down by boards. The Grey Area would be less than 1 percent, while the 9/11 board might be 25 percent or higher.

[edit on 9/11/2009 by LiquidLight]

Does this mean we can rule out the numbers 0%, 1% and on up to a certain degree?

Wouldn't it take the majority of people saying 0 or 1% in order to get those numbers, and as such no longer an average? Or do we then get into decimals?

I'll take a guess of 1%.

reply to post by harpsounds


i absolutly believe one hundred per cent that zero per cent is true.

lies! all lies!!!

you hooked me. real answer 26%.

edit i just thought of something.when you say" information on ats" i must
assume you mean all information that is information to me. there is a ton of information to me when you consider profiles, and all the other bits
of truth that are information to me, and i think i just drove my percentage up to 75%.

live forever

The question wasn't about predictions.

can you believe it. with this persons powers of observation included?

[edit on 11-9-2009 by randyvs]

2.3% I would have to say.