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The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts).
Originally posted by American_Soviets
You also have to factor in the ATS-phenomenon, where if ATS mentions a future event is to occur, that future event is less likely to occur, and is inversely proportional to the amount of doom predicted.
The question wasn't about predictions.