Economist Krugman Says World Avoided Second Great Depression

Statistical Deceptions

The Recovery that is nothing but Deceptions,

One looks in vain to the U.S. financial media for accurate economic information. Currently, Wall Street, the White House and the media are hyping a new sign of economic recovery --

On, homes sales,

The economy has been contracting for so long that a plateauing of the falloff in home sales compared to the previous time period's more rapid contraction can appear like a gain.

The Census Bureau itself notes that the reported 11 percent increase in June home sales might be illusory. The reporting agency says that the gain is not statistically meaningful at a 90 percent confidence interval and that "the Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero."

On unemployment,

The same can be said about unemployment, although here there is another twist or two. Yes, the huge layoffs that saw the number of new unemployed jumping by 6-700,000 per month in the early part of this year seem to be over, and now new unemployment is rising by “just” 500,000 a month or so, but that’s because all the major employers have already shut down or shut down entire shifts. There are not that many people who can be laid off any more, at least in large groups. This gets painted as “the pace of layoffs is slowing” as if that’s good news, but it is the opposite.

www.economyincrisis.org...

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
Oh so I assume that Celente is a Genius then because he supports the theory of complete meltdown eh?

Well guess what. It ain't gonna happen. No complete meltdown, no internal US revolution or civil war... no food riots.

How will so much of the doom sayers on ATS go on?

Celente has nothing to do with this thread topic, but it seems that his trends research has gotten under your skin a little...

It is relatively easy to dissect all of these paid in full morons shouting GREEEEN SHOOOTS when the preponderance of the evidence clearly states the opposite

I realize that it is very painful , at first , to witness your idealism crumbling before your mystified eyes, but in time, you'll learn to embrace the truth, no matter how it pains you to do so...

I have a family of four and I can't afford to ignore the objective fact that we are entering The Greatest Depression....It is my responsibility as a father to gain as much information as I can and project likely outcomes based on that information... I am NOT looking forward to what we as a country will have to endure, but I can't ignore it, either..

I wish you the best of luck!


[edit on 11-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

Crookman is totally corrupt and just says what the govt tells him to. It's a scandal that a mere newspaper columnist got a Nobel.

Originally posted by Donnie Darko

The whole system is bust. People can choose to drink the kool-aid and hold on to what's left of the old system, or we can create a new, more authentic, much better system.

On the whole, I agree with you. But neither this administration, nor any other one we could conceivably imagine in the future, is going to re-make modern capitalism and reform it in the ways it needs to be changed.

If there are just incremental changes I would be happy.

[edit on 11-8-2009 by Sestias]

reply to post by Kords21


IMO Peter Schiff has it right on a lot of that.

It could very well not be the end, but the beginning, of a worse situation worldwide.

The dollar is truly in trouble.

I'd rather that Krugman be right but it could be I'm looking for the rosy scenario.

Originally posted by RolandBrichter

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
Oh so I assume that Celente is a Genius then because he supports the theory of complete meltdown eh?

Well guess what. It ain't gonna happen. No complete meltdown, no internal US revolution or civil war... no food riots.

How will so much of the doom sayers on ATS go on?

Celente has nothing to do with this thread topic, but it seems that his trends research has gotten under your skin a little...

So you don't believe that two different common predictors have anything to do with eachother?

It is relatively easy to dissect all of these paid in full morons shouting GREEEEN SHOOOTS when the preponderance of the evidence clearly states the opposite

Preponderance of what evidence? I *AM* seeing green shoots in my business. I was listening to Clark Howard today and heard many people say the last 5 months have been the most profitable for them etc.

I think it's fair to say that most evidence people see or hear is relative to them and their world view.

I realize that it is very painful , at first , to witness your idealism crumbling before your mystified eyes, but in time, you'll learn to embrace the truth, no matter how it pains you to do so...

I am the furthest thing you will ever find from an idealist. I have no ideals. To be honest, to me reality is a sham.

I have a family of four and I can't afford to ignore the objective fact that we are entering The Greatest Depression....

And I employ thirteen people and put food on the table for their families. You think I'm not trying to make sure I can continue to do that?

btw, the state of of something as abstract as our economy entering anything is not an objective fact. It's in constant flux and composed of huge variations... there is no objective facts to be found at that level. Although I agree there are many subjective interpretations.

It is my responsibility as a father to gain as much information as I can and project likely outcomes based on that information...

Indeed.. .that's the tricky thing about information.... sometimes the smallest nuance can cast the entire rest of it in a new light.

I am NOT looking forward to what we as a country will have to endure, but I can't ignore it, either..

I wish you the best of luck!


[edit on 11-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

You too! I wish you the best of luck as well.

Chin up!

[edit on 11-8-2009 by HunkaHunka]

Originally posted by Sestias

Originally posted by Donnie Darko

The whole system is bust. People can choose to drink the kool-aid and hold on to what's left of the old system, or we can create a new, more authentic, much better system.

On the whole, I agree with you. But neither this administration, nor any other one we could conceivably imagine in the future, is going to re-make modern capitalism and reform it in the ways it needs to be changed.

If there are just incremental changes I would be happy.

[edit on 11-8-2009 by Sestias]

No doubt... and if it is the end... who can we say led us here?

Hrmm?

Originally posted by Maxmars

I'm afraid we are still in for a ride, and that they refuse to allow us to see the landscape is both frightening and infuriating. Too bad they use the information against us. If we all worked together there would be NO problem we couldn't overcome.

There are so many factions with so many different perceptions it seems improbable, but I'd like to think it could be done.

Originally posted by yellowcard
It's been said that a new bubble has been formed, well, it should be very small because nobody is investing much. We have the money to invest in another bubble, and sincerely, a bubble right now would help us a lot even though we would have to pay the price later. This would be a good time to invest in another bubble..

What is the new bubble? Which industry sector?

I've got a tenner on domestic alternative energy technology

Originally posted by HunkaHunka


It's pretty amazing the horrors we have avoided. And although many will be clamoring for these horrors to still occur (buncha sado-masochists if you ask me), I've already seen signs of the recovery in my neck of the woods.

* * * *

In my business our worst month was May. But since then I'm going to have to start hiring in order to keep up with the demand.

Glad to hear that. Though I can see the point of view of some of the doomsayers, it's good to have some concrete evidence that Krugman is correct.

reply to post by contemplator


Krugman respectfully disagreed with Obama on a few points, but overall I think he supports what the president is trying to do.

You know, if myself and a fellow ATSer go into an alley and set up a box with three cards and play a little game with passerby's then we are called criminals. When the government does it, it's called a bailout!

But what I really love is all the 'hope-sayers', they make doomsayers look wishy-washy by comparison. They poke fun at anyone who doesn't drink the kool aid and nibble on the green shoots. Sad really.

reply to post by Sestias


I am a Social Studies teacher and am certified to teach advanced economics in most of the country. I do not need any training to see that the Stimulus Package is working where I live. Numerous bridge and major road projects were canceled after the economic down turn. My school district was preparing to lay off numerous teachers, cut programs, and eliminate teacher aide positions. As a direct result of the Stimulus package, my region is repairing numerous roads and bridges and there have been no teacher, program, or teacher aide positions cancelled.

Another issue which has been pushed through the media by certain elected officials is the issue of tax relief. In my area, my school district, because of the Stimulus Package, gave the district a two and a half percent decrease in the property tax for the schools. In addition, in my area the local sewage plant gave the taxpayers an eight percent reduction in rates.
These are direct examples of how this Stimulus Package has directly affected myself, my wife, and our family. It has helped to keep jobs and increase the number of infrastructure projects in my area. This also deals with a number of safety issues as well.

To those who say that the Stimulus Package has done nothing to help the economy, I can only say "STOP PLAYING POLITICS WITH OUR LIVES!"

Honestly, I am not speaking as a Republican or a Democrat, a Green Party or Independent. I am speaking as an American who has the sense enough to look around and also do the right thing.

LOOK AROUND YOU, ASK PEOPLE, CHECK WITH YOUR SCHOOLS AND LOCAL GOVERMENT...FIND OUT THE TRUTH...WE HAVE AVOIDED THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION. WE'RE, HOWEVER, NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET!"

reply to post by Sardot


Might I ask where 'your area' is? So we can get a little context.

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
reply to post by Sardot

 

Might I ask where 'your area' is? So we can get a little context.

Yes, I second that request.... I would love to know where the Stimulus has saved the day...please help us correct our inaccurate observations...

reply to post by Sardot


If people would really look around them, they would see the same recovery we're seeing.
I teach at a community college (English, not Social Studies) and am glad to hear another academic weigh in on the subject.

Originally posted by Sestias
reply to post by Sardot

 

If people would really look around them, they would see the same recovery we're seeing.
I teach at a community college (English, not Social Studies) and am glad to hear another academic weigh in on the subject.

I travel for a living...In the last 3 months, I have looked around Los Angeles, San Diego, Stockton, Sacramento, Redding, Portland, and Seattle on the west coast....no, no miracles happening there...

Butte, Helena, Salt Lake City and Phoenix...nope

Minneapoilis, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh...are you kidding??

Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and finally Columbia....Hmmm, things are kinda rough there too...

I guess it takes an "academic" to see the emperors' clothes?

reply to post by HunkaHunka


You cannot compare microeconomics to macroeconomics... its an economic no-no. All signs point to National retail and service sales being negative. "Better than expected" for sure, but still negative. The biggest surge in profits is stemming from government spending .. which is nothing more than steroids. And is not always beneficial at that... take cash for clunkers, average savings from the corps and gov is $7k .. they estimate 600k cars will be sold with the total funds. That's 600k buyers that won't buy again for another 3 to 5 years at best..... How is that good for business, for the foreseeable future auto sales will now be lower than expected because they drained their inventory in two months for a quick bet? This is just one example of gov spending propping up the economy in the short term, but negative effects in the long term.

Aside from gdp and consumer strength, poor earnings and stagnet wage growth, consumers on average are saving more than in previous years, we also have the second highest unemployment since the 1930's...

What's improving in the economy?

Stockmarkets...

But only because the Fed and Gov pumped the banks with cash.

If those in this thread and the up-to-the-min-market-thread say the worst is yet to come... I assure you, the worst is yet to come. Hell, we called the recession back in 06' we are thankfully economically inclined as to not see economics through politics. - know you lurv Obama, and no one is saying it is Obama's fault, its the Gov in general lying through their teeth to calm the people down.

reply to post by Sestias


"Academic" sadly doesn't always indicate intelligence. Just as economist can often really mean Government Mouthpiece.

reply to post by Sardot


First, I just want to say... I LOL'd at your post.. let me explain:

I am a Social Studies teacher and am certified to teach advanced economics in most of the country.

First, I don't know what that means. "Advanced economics in most of the country".. As in, you have your teaching certificate? I remember my economics teacher in high school .. cannot say that's a good thing.. but she was somehow certified to teach the honors class.

my region is repairing numerous roads and bridges and there have been no teacher, program, or teacher aide positions cancelled.

Building a road does not generate wealth, so I am interested to hear from an Advanced Economics Teacher as to how building or rather, repairing a road, generated the money to save the school system?

In my area, my school district, because of the Stimulus Package, gave the district a two and a half percent decrease in the property tax for the schools.

That's unusual, because Property taxes are that of Localities, the Municipalities that collect the tax would not have anything to do with the stimulus funds? That is to say, when the funds reach the State, the State does not lower the Property Taxes, the individual cities/counties would.. so unless the State funneled the money illegally to the Counties to reduce Property Tax for the sake of......... saving the schools? .. I fail to see how the Stimulus lowered your taxes? Certainly, that was not the intentions of the stimulus by any means? And explain how building a road, but lowering the Property Tax (which funds schools) would lead to the school having more money to keep the teachers on board?

It has helped to keep jobs and increase the number of infrastructure projects in my area. This also deals with a number of safety issues as well.

Yes, our tax dollars hiring 6 men to watch 2 men work on a road is helping our economy by keeping a certain sector employed. It does not and will not generate wealth, so I don't know if I would consider it saving the economy.. and it hardly leads to income generation for municipalities because, well, frankly the work load has not increased, the funds are keeping projects planned or started years ago operational.

To those who say that the Stimulus Package has done nothing to help the economy, I can only say "STOP PLAYING POLITICS WITH OUR LIVES!"

Of course it's helped, or at any rate, it has lead to confusing enough numbers that it appears the economy has been helped, even if it has not been. Either way, by states misusing funds (if what you say is actually true, though I am more inclined to believe it's not) then the economy would have been helped a great deal more if they had appropriated the funds as outlined in the original bill.

LOOK AROUND YOU, ASK PEOPLE, CHECK WITH YOUR SCHOOLS AND LOCAL GOVERMENT...FIND OUT THE TRUTH...WE HAVE AVOIDED THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION. WE'RE, HOWEVER, NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET!"

....OK .... Hmm Portland.. in October had an unemployment rate of 5.5% .. by January it was 9%, by June it was 11%, now it's just under 13%. Official numbers. U6 unemployment is over 20%. Some smaller cities have U3 of 20%, U6 over 30% unemployment. Granted, because it's been under 72 weeks, most are still covered by Unemployment.. these meager checks will keep the system afloat long enough, we hope. The only direct infusion of Stimulus funds have been to start repairing and upgrading a few of the local highways.. which the unemployed people can now sit in their cars with the added frustration of backed up traffic and simply wonder "WTF is the government thinking." .. or some who think like you "The repairing of this one mile of highway to add a new onramp that will never be used is going to save our state!!"

Don't listen to me though.. I am clearly not certified to teach Advanced Economics in any State, so take it with a grain of salt.