Hi projectvxm, I'm interested to see your numbers. I calculated in commerce, and it's much bleaker than I would expect - I must be doing something
wrong here or I'm breaking the rules of calculating GDP.
For Q308: Personal (P) + Investment (I) + Government (G) = 15,120.5 B
For Q408: Personal (P) + Investment (I) + Government (G) = 14,754.4 B
= contraction of 375.1 Billion or -2.54% (-10.2% annual)
So, for commerce I have:
Exports: From 1968.9 B to 1724.7 B, a contraction of 244.2 B or -14.16%, a -56.6% annual rate.
Imports: From 2676.6 B to 2269.7 B, a contraction of 406.9 B or -17.93% a -71.7% annual rate.
For Q308: Exports + Imports = 4,645.5 B
For Q408: Exports + Imports = 3,994.4 B
= contraction of 651.1 B or -16.3% (annual 65.2%)
So here's the bleak numbers, if I add P + I + G and total commerce, the economic contraction looks far, far worse than the GDP numbers say.
GDP: Q308 - 14,412.8 B, Q408 - 14,200.3 B - This includes Net Exports as a summed up negative number (-707.7 and -545.1 B), not as a total measure of
commerce.
If we look at the exports plus imports as a measure of commerce rather than imports offsetting exports, the contraction numbers look like this (C =
Commerce):
Q308: P + I + G + C = 19766.0 B
Q308: P + I + G + C = 18739.8 B
= contraction of 1,026.2 or -5.48% (annual -21.9%)
Maybe an economics professor will chime in here.
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Hi disgustedbyhumanity, an annualized rate is an official measure. This is more conservative than to forecast the trend which is accelerating
downward.
glossary.reuters.com...
ANNUALIZED RATE
An annualized rate plots the change in an indicator over the whole year if the latest monthly or quarterly figure is presumed to persist for the rest
of the year. It is calculated by multiplying one month's change by 12 to produce the annualized rate, or one quarter's rate by four.
[edit on 25-4-2009 by Dbriefed]