Scientist wondering if swarms of quakes will cause San Andreas to Produce the "Big One"

Scientist are concerned about the swarm of earthquakes that have been occuring at Salton Sea in California. They are worried the fault that is getting the swarms of Bombay Beach ripples along side the San Andreas fault.

link to article: www.latimes.com...

Scientists are watching closely to see if small faults crossing under the Salton Sea are transferring energy to the larger, more dangerous San Andreas fault after a series of small quake swarms in the area.

The quakes appeared to be tapering off by Monday afternoon, according to the monitoring system run by the U.S. Geological Survey and Caltech. But in a 48-hour period starting Saturday morning, 42 quakes shook just south of Bombay Beach on the Salton Sea. The quakes ranged in magnitude from 0.5 to 3.3, with three larger than 3.0 hitting the area Saturday afternoon.

Scientists are particularly interested in the area because an earthquake that starts in Bombay Beach and ripples northwest along the San Andreas fault could be the Big One that devastates Los Angeles, said Graham Kent, a research geophysicist at UC San Diego.

These quakes appear to be taking place at the hazy intersection of several recently mapped faults crossing beneath the Salton Sea and the the San Andreas fault.

The worry for scientists comes from a case in 1987, when a magnitude-6.2 earthquake on one of the crossing faults appeared to trigger a 6.6 quake 12 hours later on the Superstition Hills fault to the south. The San Andreas fault is north of these crossing faults and the geometry is similar, Kent said.


This swarm, he said, "is a flashing yellow light that tells you to be prepared and to spend some time trying to understand the significance."

These last time a swarm of this type occurred in the area was 2001, so they are not especially unusual, said Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech.

Hutton said scientists do not yet know if quakes this small can trigger anything dangerous on the San Andreas.

"Every time you have a swarm of earthquakes, it does raise the chances of having a larger quake, but it doesn't raise it a huge number," she said.

Since the article was written there has been a 4.8 at Bombay Beach yesterday, besides 50 more quakes, ranging in all magnitudes.

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 2.1 2009/03/25 00:33:37 33.312 -115.706 8.1 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.8 2009/03/25 00:30:22 33.304 -115.719 6.8 5 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.5 2009/03/25 00:05:05 33.331 -115.704 7.0 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.5 2009/03/24 23:51:12 33.330 -115.674 6.3 6 km ( 4 mi) ESE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 3.2 2009/03/24 23:43:15 33.311 -115.751 5.9 5 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.3 2009/03/24 23:08:02 33.308 -115.691 3.8 6 km ( 4 mi) SE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.2 2009/03/24 22:58:47 33.289 -115.683 6.6 8 km ( 5 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.2 2009/03/24 22:58:21 33.281 -115.691 4.2 9 km ( 5 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.5 2009/03/24 22:04:52 33.304 -115.714 4.3 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.1 2009/03/24 21:28:09 33.307 -115.744 4.6 5 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.1 2009/03/24 21:26:56 33.323 -115.721 6.4 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.3 2009/03/24 20:57:18 33.331 -115.707 6.3 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.5 2009/03/24 20:14:46 33.300 -115.716 3.9 6 km ( 4 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.1 2009/03/24 20:13:18 33.320 -115.706 8.5 4 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.7 2009/03/24 20:11:26 33.308 -115.712 5.7 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.6 2009/03/24 19:34:50 33.304 -115.714 4.7 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.3 2009/03/24 19:34:41 33.306 -115.710 4.8 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.2 2009/03/24 19:31:19 33.303 -115.721 4.4 6 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.7 2009/03/24 19:21:01 33.314 -115.723 2.5 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.2 2009/03/24 19:14:58 33.303 -115.695 4.1 6 km ( 4 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.9 2009/03/24 19:06:32 33.317 -115.711 7.0 4 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.8 2009/03/24 17:59:01 33.302 -115.716 7.1 6 km ( 4 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.6 2009/03/24 17:46:36 33.307 -115.720 6.3 5 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.0 2009/03/24 17:14:22 33.323 -115.720 5.0 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.7 2009/03/24 16:43:39 33.304 -115.713 7.7 6 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.6 2009/03/24 15:43:55 33.327 -115.712 7.4 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.4 2009/03/24 15:20:09 33.305 -115.715 5.6 5 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.3 2009/03/24 14:53:52 33.323 -115.731 7.1 3 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.4 2009/03/24 14:16:37 33.327 -115.728 7.3 3 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.9 2009/03/24 13:54:02 33.331 -115.724 5.8 2 km ( 1 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 3.1 2009/03/24 13:52:51 33.314 -115.737 4.2 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.4 2009/03/24 13:49:27 33.326 -115.724 6.9 3 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.9 2009/03/24 13:46:12 33.314 -115.729 6.0 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.3 2009/03/24 13:26:04 33.312 -115.733 4.7 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.3 2009/03/24 13:14:50 33.313 -115.741 3.7 4 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.2 2009/03/24 13:10:27 33.327 -115.707 4.4 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.6 2009/03/24 13:03:47 33.328 -115.708 8.4 3 km ( 2 mi) SE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.5 2009/03/24 12:58:58 33.317 -115.734 7.5 4 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.7 2009/03/24 12:19:07 33.302 -115.742 13.5 6 km ( 4 mi) SSW of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.8 2009/03/24 12:17:00 33.313 -115.737 4.2 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.9 2009/03/24 12:16:43 33.317 -115.721 3.9 4 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.3 2009/03/24 12:15:06 33.327 -115.723 6.2 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.0 2009/03/24 12:14:54 33.331 -115.716 5.2 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.4 2009/03/24 12:08:29 33.309 -115.741 5.4 5 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.8 2009/03/24 12:06:46 33.313 -115.718 6.0 4 km ( 3 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 1.9 2009/03/24 12:04:01 33.323 -115.719 4.6 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.6 2009/03/24 12:01:51 33.315 -115.733 4.2 4 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.7 2009/03/24 11:59:08 33.310 -115.735 4.5 5 km ( 3 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 2.3 2009/03/24 11:58:25 33.319 -115.724 4.2 4 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA
MAP 4.8 2009/03/24 11:55:43 33.318 -115.728 5.8 4 km ( 2 mi) S of Bombay Beach, CA

Those are rather insignificant tremors.
Hasn't it always been a fear amongst scientists that any activity around California could trigger the "big one" Am I missing something? Its gonna blow. NOBODY knows when.
Sometimes I think the geologists have no idea what they are talking about and only hype it to get more funding for their pet projects.
[edit on 24-3-2009 by venividivici]

[edit on 24-3-2009 by venividivici]

It doesn't really sound like there's a whole lot of concern.

These last time a swarm of this type occurred in the area was 2001, so they are not especially unusual, said Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech.

Hutton said scientists do not yet know if quakes this small can trigger anything dangerous on the San Andreas.

"Every time you have a swarm of earthquakes, it does raise the chances of having a larger quake, but it doesn't raise it a huge number," she said.

www.latimes.com...

reply to post by venividivici

Scientists are particularly interested in the area because an earthquake that starts in Bombay Beach and ripples northwest along the San Andreas fault could be the Big One that devastates Los Angeles, said Graham Kent, a research geophysicist at UC San Diego.

These quakes appear to be taking place at the hazy intersection of several recently mapped faults crossing beneath the Salton Sea and the the San Andreas fault.

They are concerned because this fault crosses beneath the San Andreas fault.

As it says in the article

Being a native Californian we have heard this over at least the last 30 years,that the big one will happen any day now,so I take this with a grain of salt,hey maybe it will trigger something,but I think it's a matter of scientists grasping at straws,another human interest story

I think its safe to say eventually there will have to be a big one there.
But I don't think they are immediately concerned as in next week kind of thing.

And if they said nothing, and the San Andreas slipped big time, you would all be yelling and screeming their hides.

Let them make these statements. They are not calling for everyone to run and hide. They seem to be just informing us of their concerns, so that you can all be a little better prepared.

reply to post by palg1


Correct, if the scientist did not come out with their concerns and San Andreas hit, with a large quake the public would be outraged.

They are covering themselves, and it seems they do have valid concerns.

I keep up to date with EQ boards and scientist on those, say there is a real concern.

The Bombay quakes could loosen up San Andreas since they intersect.

They definitely do not want that to happen. But they are warning people right now, there is a concern of it.

reply to post by Oldtimer2


Oldtimer, I don't blame you for taking it all in stride. I even agree that we've been hearing the same thing for years. This time, to me at least, it doesn't sound like the same old scary stories that come from the quasi-scientifc hobbiest. This one comes from a credible source.

Please don't be complacent about what the scientist are telling you.

I almost started a new thread about this but figured I'd search "Salton Sea" and here I am.


California Earthquake Predicted “Over Next Few Days”?

The CEPEC believes that there is a 1% to 5% chance of a large earthquake (magnitude 7.0 or greater) on the San Andreas Fault over the next few days.

The number of quakes in South Cali keeps increasing. At least it seems that way.
South Cali USGS quake map



[edit on 3/26/09 by stikkinikki]

NBC Brian Williams mentioned this tonight and said they were going to have a more indepth report on it tomorrow - during the news.

He mentioned the "real" concern now, about a Big quake coming out of this on San Andreas.

There have been hundreds of quakes here now, today, I haven't even counted but looks to be at least 30. Also 4M hit there today along with a 3.4m besides smaller ones.

reply to post by stikkinikki


That "prediction", if you can call it that, is from two days ago.

There was a 1 percent to 5 percent chance of a San Andreas quake over the next several days, but the probability decreases rapidly with time, according to the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council.

www.foxnews.com...

A 1% to 5% chance ain't much and there is not even a guess at how strong the quake would be. Since there aren't any new reports it seems that the probability has decreased.

Swarms in this region are not uncommon.
www.latimes.com...

Still, anyone living in almost any part of California should be prepared for an earthquake at any time.


[edit on 3/26/2009 by Phage]

LOL - I think it is hilarious - how it seems I get a posting from someone right after I post something... basically debunking whatever is posted.


I am actually getting a huge kick out of it now!! I think it is funny!

I will enjoy this....................... it will be lots of fun!

The fact is the quakes happening are Increasing the probablity that the San Andreas can/will produce a large quake.

The rippling is happening.

People need to read the reports before just posting things... to post.

LOL

[edit on 26-3-2009 by questioningall]

reply to post by questioningall

I was reading the reports. That's why it appeared that my post followed yours. I hit "post reply" before I saw yours. That LA times article was the most recent I could find.

I'm not a seismologist so to me, the reports from USGS are interesting but I really don't know how to put them together. Since there are no earthquake watches, advisories, or warnings. It doesn't seem that there is much to get alarmed about.

reply to post by Phage


So, in other words the article in the LA Times about scientist concerned about the "big one" hitting due to these quakes ripping the San Andreas, that is not from USGS site, is uuuuhhhhhh...... not "good" enough for you? .................. OK....................

Well, it seems even when things are written in black and white and evidence is there............... that is NOT good enough for you - wow!!

Well, there really isn't anything else to add............ to the "not good enough" claim. Because if a truth is right in front, but people don't look at that truth or information, then there is nothing more to even say or debate, due to denial.

I wonder if people find it hard or easy to try and debunk something, that is a fact in front of them? HHMMMM I will ponder that............

though I am enjoying the pattern I have noticed and am taken accounting of...... of postings. I do so.......... like patterns and watch for them all the time.

I have definitely/ been aware of a pattern that has been occuring over the last couple of weeks!

reply to post by questioningall

I guess you see what you want to see.

Experts say that's a tiny slip for a fault so large, but the novelty of having that kind of data is tantalizing for scientists. "If you look at the statistics, they say the odds of something bigger happening is on the order of 1%," said Susan Hough of the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena. "It raises your blood pressure as a seismologist, but we're trying to read the tea leaves."

A 1% chance won't get you far in Vegas.

"Clearly [this week's swarm] wasn't sufficient" to trigger an event on the San Andreas, Given said. "Does it mean that a San Andreas event will happen sooner? We don't know."

Like I said; Anyone in California...

www.latimes.com...

If my boss asked me why my data analysis of the last project was entirely wrong. I'd tell him "we'll...... I'm just trying to read the tea leaves sir" !!!

He's next question would be how long would it take to clean out my desk

[edit on 27-3-2009 by violet]

There's always any given percentage of a 'chance' for a Big One in this region and with regards to this fault line. Whenever there's swarms, the local newspapers run stories bringing attention to it.

It's nothing to be alarmed about. Those who live along or near these faults are aware a major quake can happen any time.

Originally posted by questioningall
reply to post by Phage

 

So, in other words the article in the LA Times about scientist concerned about the "big one" hitting due to these quakes ripping the San Andreas, that is not from USGS site, is uuuuhhhhhh...... not "good" enough for you? .................. OK....................

though I am enjoying the pattern I have noticed and am taken accounting of...... of postings. I do so.......... like patterns and watch for them all the time.

I have definitely/ been aware of a pattern that has been occuring over the last couple of weeks!

As I said above, the newspapers run stories, as an added feature. These stories are common and frequent. When assembling the article they are going to go to USGS site and others like it to get information to write about. Then they will try and interview a geologist, and use the most desirable snippets of that to address the article's headline. Unless specifically stated ( and I haven't bothered to check this one ) quotes can be old quotes from previous articles or even pulled from USGS site, and used ... the same way you (we) assemble our thread's opening statements ... we seek info, sources, and then we extract the text we know will make it more interesting .... or news worthy.

"The Big One" story is always written about during times of swarms or other quakes around the region. Try googling that headline, and you will find loads of stories dating back years on how scientisits warn ..... etc, etc.

[edit on 27-3-2009 by violet]

Seems like the authorities in California are taking this a little more seriously than those here posting.

From: (edited) Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 1:27 PM

To: Principals; Cabinet; District_Office

Subject: Earthquake Information

The California Emergency Management Agency has issued an advisory regarding a sequence of small earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault. Agency officials believe there is a one to five percent chance of an earthquake on the fault sometime in the next few days. This information provides an opportunity to check our earthquake preparedness. Principals are asked to review the “duck, cover and hold” preparations and guidelines for earthquakes and to consider other needs should a serious one actually take place. Thank you."

Also I found there is actually a volcano under this area.

link to source

Salton Butte