Shipping rates hit zero - meaning? Go get shopping now for goods needed

reply to post by questioningall


Heres a link I just found that says exporter confidence has gone down.
www.cbc.ca...

Originally posted by questioningall
reply to post by Anonymous ATS

 

But you miss the part of us shipping our grains and raw foods to China to be made into finished boxed products. Look at the baby formulas etc.

I would have thought we would not have to worry either, but since the wonderful tax breaks Bush put in place and loop holes, it has been more beneficial for big companies to have the food products produced elsewhere. You may be surprised at how much food we get from China.

I know I need to go out and buy a tiller for gardening. I bought seeds, but am wondering if seeds you buy from the store now are GM seeds.
Anyone know that answer?

To answer your question: Typically. They have been genetically modified to resist certain diseases, etc. I personally only buy heirloom seeds or organic seeds which cannot be modified in any way.

May I also suggest that you look into natural gardening methods to avoid using chemical pesticides, etc on your garden if you are going to be growing your own food. Information like: Planting marigolds with tomatoes will keep away cut worms because they do not like the smell. Or the "three sisters" method with corn, squash, & beans. Plant corn and allow it to sprout, then you plant beans in between the corn because the beans give the corn the nitrogen it needs to flourish. Then you plant squash around them for ground cover and to hold in the much needed water for the corn and beans.

I am not affiliated with them in any way, but they have some of the best prices for organic seeds that I've ever seen. www.tinyseeds.com And their shipping is only 3.95 no matter the size of your order. I just purchased from them not long ago for my spring garden.

Hope this helps.

You absolutely right, Redneck; star for you.

My Dad has been a long-haul trucker for over 35 years (I have 7 years); he's worked for 3 companies that whole time. He currently works for New Prime Inc. - Has been since 2003. Before that, he worked for C.R. England, 17 years, and before that, Carnation for 13 years. He's got over 25 Million Miles under his belt - with the pins to prove it. I currently take care of his books and have been doing so for quite some time. He swore, after resigning at C.R. England, that he'd never be a company driver again (he's been owner operator since working for Prime), but he's actually having to admit that there's simply no freight, thus no money in Owner Operations anymore. I keep hearing phrases like "Dead Freight" and "Low Freight" and "Layover" every time I talk to him. He's the most upbeat positive thinker I've ever known and he has always laughed at his problems. He's not laughing at the moment. It's like a great star that has lost it's luster, and it's very hard to watch.

I can state with full confidence, that current shipping is worse than it's been in 40 years or so, and I'm only stating what truckers haul, not over-the-water Shipping. The last 4-5 months have been unbelievably horrible for truckers. It used to be that once a load was delivered, he'd have another waiting and hardly enough time to get to the next pick-up point with even less time to get to the drop-off. As it stands now he's enduring 3 and 4 day layovers between loads and the loads he is getting, consistently, no longer have that aura of "hot load" or rushing to it's destination...and he's one of Prime's Top Truckers having received many awards too numerous to mention.

After getting my 100,000 mile trial and schooling done (which I breezed though having always been on trucks), I chose to drive locally (knowing the price long-haul has on a family quite well) for a company whose highest client was Toyota car and parts manufacture. That company went bankrupt two years ago as there was simply not enough business to remain viable. Of course, it was smaller (only a little over 100 trucks) being local, but no-one saw it coming - and it was quite an abrupt shock to most of our systems.

Again, Redneck - your friends are right, and I highly doubt you've told us just how worried they really are right now, as even the happiest go lucky person I've ever known has frowns and looks of worry on his face more than I've ever seen.

It's always been common knowledge (at least in my family) that to know this country's food and goods condition, all you had to do was look to the truckers, and for the most part, it's always been highly lucrative and sustainable. However, lately, it's just as apparent that we are dealing with a multitude of problems having a higher than ever impact on the trucking industry as a whole, and the nation is certainly going to feel the price crunch (as if it hasn't already), among other things. If the Trucking Industry goes, it's simply logic that dictates everything else will rapidly follow.

Originally posted by lagnar
You absolutely right, Redneck; star for you.

My Dad has been a long-haul trucker for over 35 years (I have 7 years); he's worked for 3 companies that whole time. He currently works for New Prime Inc. - Has been since 2003. Before that, he worked for C.R. England, 17 years, and before that, Carnation for 13 years. He's got over 25 Million Miles under his belt - with the pins to prove it.

I'm sorry, but the math degree I picked up while getting a Bachelor's in engineering insists I do this. 35 years X 365 Days per year =12,775 days

25,000,000 Miles divided by 12,775 Days = 1,957 Miles per day.

At a generous 75 MPH speed limit, driving steady and nonstop, 24 hours a day, a man can drive 1,800 Miles. That means your dad either has discovered an amazing space-time continuum allowing him to not only drive incessantly without sleep, but also somehow get slightly more than 26 hours in a day.

Embellishing on your story like that lessens the believabillity of anything you may post.

Con-way, Roadway, & Yellow Freight have all cut their work force by huge amounts. Yellow also cut wages for everyone left working. Long Beach Port, CA reports a 10% decrease since 2007. L.A. Port 6+%, These two ports combined handle 40% of ALL U.S. container shipping; so we're talking 16% overall. That doesn't sound good to me. We also have tankers and ships, seemingly stalled offshore for a few months now. I'm a mile from the beach, I've seen it with my own eyes, and it's something NEW. The stats don't specify import/export so I can't say. I do know someone that works at the L.A. Port; he says that in recent years the main export seems to be scrap metal, going to China. Container after container of solid American metal going to China to be recycled into the cheap crap we Yankees seem to love...What all this means, I don't know.
As far as food processing goes, we can relax. We can do it ourselves. Having the food is the issue, and honestly, the U.S. is in the best situation in this regard.
I believe the writing on is PLAINLY on the wall. I have made some preparations and have been urging friends as well. Most, of course, think I'm crazy; but they thought so when I predicted the financial crap we're in now too, 2 years ago. There is some real momentum to this collapse, and barring some exceptional circumstances, it has only to go DOWN from here. I don't think the question is "IF" but rather, when? Well, we'll see...BUT I have always heard, better to have something and not need it, than to need it and not have it...

It is much more scary for me to think that a country like Russia and/or China may find themselves without enough food for there people...
There's some nice farmland in America; if you knock down a few of the malls, and the closed down manufacturing plants, and warehouses...

[edit on 15-1-2009 by odd1out]

reply to post by burdman30ott6

Perhaps I am in a generous mood, but I figured he either meant 2.5 million or 5 million. The former would be no sweat over a 35 year span, and the latter is difficult, but achievable.

My average is about 130,000 to 140,000 miles per year OTR.

TheRedneck

reply to post by Rockpuck

We're all bozos on this bus.I listen to bigots and fools,how can ya help it when they're running the show right now?Like Backseat and his disgraced sock puppet,but you freemasons can't say anything bad about them as a rule ya can't speak ill of fellow masons.I know the drill.Ya listen but don't have to follow,eh?I represented myself in court,so that makes me a fool,but I came out really well,so go figure?But,back on the topic here...I put in several thousand miles last summer and autumn and ,driving a diesel truck,came into contact with a few drivers at fuel stops.Fewer than I recall.Also saw huge lots full of trucks,abandoned looking not just idle,and I don't recall seeing that before.

Maybe we can get away from Basa and get our US Southern Catfish market back and stop poisoning people with that crap. Perhaps this is a good time and excuse to kick a "Jobs Plan" into action and get more people involved in the food processing industry in the US to relieve some of this recessive decline. Perhaps this little shipping crisis would be most beneficial for the US, since everyone that holds their hands out for our generocity does so with an evil grin and middle finger in the air. Perhaps this is a great time to remind people of the world why the US is considered one of the greatest nations to live in and has been titled Superpower for the last 100+ years.

If any nation in the world is to survive an overseas shipping crisis, the US will certainly be in the top of the list of survivors. In fact, I think North and South America stand the best chance of living well through a shipping crisis, since we are the most agriculturally proficient continents.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6

Originally posted by lagnar
You absolutely right, Redneck; star for you.

My Dad has been a long-haul trucker for over 35 years (I have 7 years); he's worked for 3 companies that whole time. He currently works for New Prime Inc. - Has been since 2003. Before that, he worked for C.R. England, 17 years, and before that, Carnation for 13 years. He's got over 25 Million Miles under his belt - with the pins to prove it.

I'm sorry, but the math degree I picked up while getting a Bachelor's in engineering insists I do this. 35 years X 365 Days per year =12,775 days

25,000,000 Miles divided by 12,775 Days = 1,957 Miles per day.

At a generous 75 MPH speed limit, driving steady and nonstop, 24 hours a day, a man can drive 1,800 Miles. That means your dad either has discovered an amazing space-time continuum allowing him to not only drive incessantly without sleep, but also somehow get slightly more than 26 hours in a day.

Embellishing on your story like that lessens the believabillity of anything you may post.

Just to get into the math here...because its just fun to do...dear old dad could have pulled it off as long as he ran at least 95 mph for 20.6 hours. This gives him 3.4 hours per day to sleep while he is loaded and unloaded, and to sign all those traffic violations he would be getting for running stop lights/signs and speeding through cities.

Ok, so I was just picking on you a bit Lagnar. No harm no foul.

[edit on 15-1-2009 by wheresthetruth]

Thanks for this thread. I've finally walked the talk and stocked up. I think the safeway.com delivery guy thinks I'm nuts and is peering around to see if I've also built a bunker. (I may regret I haven't)

I actually started because of the yellowstone thread which was as on topic and factual (well since it's soooooo much longer - more so) than this one. But I love all this insider info re trucking and shipping.

I can add a little with regards to production and recycling. I know that out of San Francisco I've seen numbers as high as 80% of a container ship just carrying recycled cardboard to China. How sad is that? Right now, recyclers are in terrible states and closing down all over - oil is so cheap - recycling plastics is too expensive (things were better when oil was $140 a barrel). But now that we've got everyone finally recycling - we have no where to move it. Asia doesn't want it now - they can get oil and they don't even need much of that since volume is down. So a lot of the containers you'll see at docks are recycling (garbage) waiting to go somewhere. And why don't we process it all here? Well thats the million dollar question. We don't have the facilities any more - all the pelleters and melters and woven and non woven textiles - all that machinery evaporated from the US. So much of what the manufacturing sites do here - is really just assembly. Parts are all made in Asia or Mexico or sometimes Turkey.

I think a worry is that - yes we may grow stuff here - but it will take some time to re-organize a lost industry of packaging and processing here again. Just like it will for textiles and parts etc.

My favorite story is the Prawn. When you eat a prawn in the US - it was most likely caught or farmed in Costa Rica then flown to Laos to be shelled and flown back again to land on your plate. We are soooo lazy we can't even shell our own prawns and we wonder why our systems are in trouble.

Even Hawaii, I went there recently - I mean this is a tropical paradise, it should be full of organic lush gardens of fruits and vegetables. I was shocked to learn that even pineapples were imported and that the fields were all corn for corn syrup.

To buy seeds - here's another resource

www.nitro-pak.com they have a non-hybrid Garden Seeds pack

www.nitro-pak.com...

*Non-Hybrid seeds can be collected from the crop after harvest and used the next season for replanting. Many store bought seed are "hydrid" varities and will not produce their own seeds.

what ever you do - don't get those monsanto seeds with the suicide gene - they may hybrid and start killing off other plants next year.

I don't see how low shipping rates means food shortages. Demand for food is still there. When the cost of shipping food goes down, it's EASIER to ship food not harder. Ships are idle because demand for non-essentials has gone down. That also doesn't translate into shortages but rather surpluses. If people aren't buying as much of something as they used to, then the stores will have too much of that stuff still on the shelves/racks. What can cause shortages in terms of shipping is if the suppliers can't get financing from banks or if the shippers can't get fuel or are on shaky financial ground themselves.

Originally posted by questioningall
reply to post by LowLevelMason

 

I find it amazing that you are doubting the info. - it has not come from me, but from valid and real sources.

See this is what gets me. People see INFO and think it means CONCLUSION.

Let's get this straight folks...

A CONCLUSION is something you draw based on your ideas, beliefs, experiences, AND info.

Info alone does not indicate a conclusion... that occurs in your subjective little mind.


It's one thing to post something about the data and say "Any ideas? I think it means blah blah blah"

But to act all high and mighty and call out your opinion as to what it means as a fact is just beyond the absurd...

Scientists let others come to their own conclusions.

Claiming your conclusion as fact is the first sign that you are reaching.


And to sum this up.... you get a username like "QuestioningAll" and this user acts in exact contradiction to their name by simply AcceptingAll of the conclusions that the OP posted with the data....

Go figure...

[edit on 16-1-2009 by HunkaHunka]

I'm starting to agree with the users in this thread that have said that this is good for shipping. I understand how plunging rates would be scary for anyone to look at, but think on it like this - they do run the show, and they know the Internet is hot with tinfoilies nowadays who are watching them like hawks. I think this is part fear mongering, and part trying to make an extra buck.

Questionitall, I understand you want to help. And I do thank you for the OP . It does have me buying some dried food, and looking back over my BoB. But I think this is just another dip down, and it will help offset the higher prices of some other goods. True, we import more food than lead to believe. True, trucking is down but that is attributed to more awareness of greenhouse gases, I believe.

Don't always think "Doom and Gloom!" when you see something like this. Yes, be aware and keep your eyes open, but do not forget your Reason when it comes to this. Weigh everything, think on it nice and hard, and then act.

Embellishing on your story like that lessens the believabillity of anything you may post.

Take a look at my post record chief. This is obviously a typo (wonder how close the 2 is to the 1) I still believe that may be wrong though (15). I've personally seen his two 5million badges, but it was quite awhile ago. Perhaps I was simply trying to extract the miles with the time incorrectly, and not being an engineer allowed myself a little stretch. My point is he's almost undoubtedly traveled more than anyone on this board and never had a problem with loads.

I would never intentionally embellish anything I say simply for the fact you pointed out. Thanks for the catch, but your automatic judgment has taken quite a few respect points I had for you away. Engineering obviously has no bearing on psychology.

EDIT: Couldn't leave you out Wheresthetruth:
A nice coast based on nothing but error in judgment. Still...a bit funny, so...indeed...no harm, no foul.

ADDED EDIT: He's been a driver trainer most of my life, and in fact my 100,000 mile schooling was with him, and those were short miles. We did, in fact, 125,00 long miles in 5 months - almost to the day (1 day off). Basically, that means his truck never stops running, aside from layovers and going into California for any substantial amount of time - I'd rather drive in the northeast than in California - and I think truckers will back me up on this. Yet even with two truckers in the same truck and going 24/7, they're still not getting loads they should.

And as I said before scarlett, trucking is down due to a multitude of problems. One or two problems is not going to bring trucking, and thus, this nation to it's knees. Truckers don't even know what weekends are, let alone "full-time"; they are tough and won't let anything happen without a fight. The point of my post was simply this...they're starting to lose.

[edit on 16-1-2009 by lagnar]

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
reply to post by questioningall

 

Nothing has "gone over the cliff" and just like your last thread, this won't result in empty shelves. I am not disputing the data, I am disputing your conclusion that the data must mean chaos is coming. The data is clear: shipping is cheap. And that is great news.

I think the point is some shippers will not operate at near zero profit.

How many will choose to idle their tankers rather than drive them
half way around the world for little to no profit remains to be seen.

I am going to lean toward most of them idling their ships til it is
profitable, it is not a good time to take risks monetarily.

They can wait a few weeks or months for demand and prices to
spike and then take the cargoes.

Oil Tankers waiting offshore til price rises

As you can see some of it is going on with oil right now.



[edit on 16-1-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

[edit on 16-1-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

[edit on 16-1-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

Originally posted by Studenofhistory
I don't see how low shipping rates means food shortages.

See my above post, it explains that cargo carriers would rather
idle their crews and ships and wait for better rates rather than
risk losing money.

It is a symptom of deflationary issues.

If you have most of your shipping carriers sit out til prices are better,
then most of the imported food and goods dry up in short order.

It is like walking up to a person on the street and saying would
you like a job working for free ?

I think you know the answer.

reply to post by questioningall

Most seeds nowdays are "terminator seeds" meaning that the seeds they produce will not produce true, or at all. That means you have to keep buying seeds rather than saving them from the plants/fruits you grow.
gardener

reply to post by questioningall


If the seeds dont say non GMO they usually are gmo. Organic non GMO I order from here

www.victoryseeds.com...

You can also store sprouts. A fast way to have food on hand and many sprout seeds store a long time.

www.sproutpeople.com...

They are both great companies. I haved used many times.

Originally posted by ANNED

30 tankers just anchored up offshore doing nothing.

anchored off a US port means they are full of oil.
.

This kind of sloppy analysis makes me crazy...spose' I've done plenty myself, though.

Anchored off the port doesn't mean they are full. They could be empty. It's easy to tell. Are they high in the water or low?

Empty is the most logical. They had delivery contracts, but didn't leave port without promise of a new load. While moving, the fuel cost is probably $20K per day, so they stay put until they have another contract to pick up. It is possible that the refineries delay delivery and some ships are waiting to unload. They usually work on a scheduled JIT delivery system, so a delay could cause them to stack up.

What loads are moving go to the lowest bidder and the rest just sit. If the companies' go bankrupt, what happens to the ships? No pay for the crews, so they abandon ship and it blows ashore in the next big storm??

So whether the ships were full or empty would tell us something of where we are with this. If they are mostly full, the slack is still being taken up. If empty, they are waiting for the best opportunity to send them off to raft somewhere, or wishfully hoping things will pick up.

If there were 300 tankers moving around and demand went down 10% wouldn't that mean 30 tankers would have to stop somewhere?

The only ones that can create a supply shortage are those that pump it out of the ground...

The latest on this...................... the 4th largest shipping port in the world is down 40% and has run out of room for anchored and idle ships.

link: www.bloomberg.com...

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s biggest port is running out of room to store shipping containers, said Park Jung Ho, an official at one of Busan’s nine operators. The bigger concern is that the boxes are almost all empty.

Container trade at Busan, the world’s fifth-largest port, has fallen about 40 percent in recent months, said Park, at Busan International Terminal Co. Even by stacking boxes five deep and leasing a nearby lot, he barely has room for the 31,700 containers that have piled up on his wharves.

“We are spending half of what we earn from our main business for storage space,” said Park who is responsible for placement of equipment and containers for the company.

Empty containers, idled dockworkers and laid-up vessels have become a hallmark of ports from Singapore to Rotterdam that six months ago were straining to meet the flow of electronics, toys, cars and equipment. For Busan, surrounded by the world’s five biggest shipyards, the outlook is even bleaker after the glut of vessels caused a record decline in global orders for new ships in January.

Singapore, the world’s biggest container port, handled 1.97 million 20-foot containers in January, 20 percent less than a year earlier. In Shanghai, the second-largest, traffic was down 19 percent, while Hong Kong, the No. 3, suffered a 23 percent drop. Busan handled 894,172 20-foot standard containers in January, the fewest since February 2005, the Busan Port Authority said on its Web site.

I have also been reading reports of people not able to get their pain perscriptions at large pharmacies.

If you haven't been watching what is going on... you need to.... besides the droughts happening, and Calif farmers not getting water anymore to grown vegs.

97 Percent Drop

A total of 153.6 million deadweight tons were ordered last year worldwide, 43 percent less than in 2007, Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker, said in its monthly shipbuilding report. In January, 0.4 million tons were ordered, a 97 percent decline from the same month a year earlier, London-based Clarkson said.