Stop Using Web Bot to Predict Natural Disasters

Im sure everyone has noticed the increase of web bot related prophecies on ATS lately, but has anyone claiming web bot as a predicting tool actually researched and found out how it really works?

When you type in a key word, web bot simply crawls the internet searching for those words, similar to the way google, yahoo and the other search engines come up with hits. The only difference is that web bot actually takes into consideration the content preceding and follwing what has been typed in. The data is then analyzed to see if there is any meaning of the content.

Does it work? Well in a way it does, but the interpretation of the data from the search is the problem. In explanation, the problem is that when people recieve results from a web bot, they usually look for something to connect it (the data) with. Therefore when an event occurs, and its something remotely or vaguely similar to something web bot has said, its assumed that the web bot has made an accurate prediction. Its very similar to how people interpret Nostradamus' quatraines.

Another problem associated with web bot is the actual topic/ key word being typed in. Imagine you type in something well known, say along the lines "2012", how many hits do you think that will get conmpared to something like "the digestive system of spiders". I can almost gurantee that there will be a hell of a lot more results on the 2012 key word, because there would have been more web pages written about 2012, than there wouldve been about "the digestive system of spiders". The way I see it, the more written about a subject, the more web bot is inclined to think a prediction is true.

We also must take into consideration the type of person writing a webpage. For instance, compare the number of websites written by ancient language scholars, specialising in the Mayan calender and the number of conspiracy buffs writing about the "impending doom" of 2012. Simply type 2012 into a google search and see if you can find through the millions of results, the pages written by specialists or proffesionals.

Now, I do believe web bot is a useful tool when it comes to predicting the stock market, in fact I even think that it may be a good tool in determining dates for a terrorist attack (although it would need to be fine tuned), as the internet has been a known tool for comunication or blogging by terrorist factions. But for something such as a future natural disaster, say a Hurricane for example, unless web bot only crawls over juts the sites written by experts in the field (meteorologists and severe weather experts), then the outcome will almost always be one of an "impending doom".

Im not asking people to stop using web bot, but seriously, stop assuming it is such an accurate predicting tool and learn how it works!!!

I have to agree with your logic here. Events based on mankind is one thing but natural disasters is a stretch.

Even with enough input from researchers in a field the only good prediction might be something along the lines of much talk about a volcano venting gas could predict an eruption in the near time frame.

I would think that certain areas of predictions would become more inaccurate based on all the speculation in so many directions.

[edit on 12/13/2008 by roadgravel]

In a way, I agree.

But in certain Natural Disasters that are harder to forecast, such as earthquakes and such, If a properly researched and written "prediction" can prepare people that would otherwise not be aware of something then it can't hurt as much as help.

on the other hand, someone whose adamant about it coming true and laying out the "doom" might end up causing more harm then anything else.

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Right now there are 1.2 million without electricity in the Northeast.

In September - the webbot said:

The Web Bots foresee that the Winter in the Northeast will be very cold this Winter, causing some schools to close, and then later to reopen as shelters for people who can't heat their homes. Language suggests that the shortage will either be caused by supply, cost of fuel, or both.]"

Please see the following link:

www.myfoxboston.com...

Anyone who needs support after the overnight ice storm is asked to dial 2-1-1.

Here is a list of emergency shelters for storm victims:

Amesbury - Amesbury Middle School

North Andover - N. Andover High School

Portsmouth - Portsmouth High School

Worcester - Warming center open until 7P at the Worcester Senior Center at 128 Providence St. Opening 2 overnight shelters opening at 7P - Doherty Memorial H.S., Burncoat High School

Sure a long term forecast of "cold" weather, but "schools turning into shelters" is not a "normal" long term forecast. Besides over a million people being without electricity is not a "long term" forecast either from any meterologist I have seen or heard.

The point is - the webbot - gets the "emotional values" of events before they happen, do most of us understand that? NO - but does it happen - there seems to be very valid evidence it does. Also there are many who have posted and linked to webbot's previous - correct predictions - on other threads- so I won't go through those again at this time.

The immediate and current happenings - were predicted by the webbot - through the emotions of the people - well in advance.

The fact that the list provided by the news agency of shelters available, are ALL schools - shows the webbot did get this prediction correct and it is happening right now.

I am not sure I quite understand how schools are not a "normal" long term forecast. I always thought that in many natural disaster situations from Earthquakes to Hurricanes, most public and some private schools will be utilized as a shelter.

But I do understand what your saying.

reply to post by questioningall


Yeah that makes sense because shelters are man made things. Imagine the information on web sites that deals with where to go during bad weather. Easily done with web bot. Remember it does take into account the information that precedes and follows the original key words

Oz... Where are you getting your information about how WebBot works? My understanding is that it works nothing like you describe. The information I have is that it tracks a set of 'target' keywords and then captures words that surround them over set periods of time. The data is then modeled to look for linguistic shifts against that baseline data. These statistically significant deviations are then interpreted for meaning.

The data runs are used to predict events significantly far out on the timeline (many months). I don't claim to have an inside look at their proprietary methodology but as a professional in the data modeling field I understand what they are doing and believe, from what I have been able to learn about their system, that it is significantly more sophisticated than the search engine example you are providing.

The fact that they are working with linguistic shifts and that linguistics are not absolute is where the interpretive error is introduced. A related issue has prevented automated data-modeling driven medical diagnostics systems from being developed. Like linguistics, many of the key medical measurements are not absoluetly associated with a single medical situation and, so far, require human interpretation.

WebBot is hardly perfect and is, by the devlopers' admissions, a work-in-progress. But given the 'my uncle works with a guy who know a guy who overheard a conversation...' basis of so many threads here, I would be hesistant, knowing what I do about WebBot, to discard it out-of-hand.

reply to post by OzWeatherman


Like jtma said, what you described is nothing like how the web bot works.
I think you may have it confused with the chat bot, which is a simple little app used for fun: The Chat Bot



[edit on 13-12-2008 by MrVertigo]

without web bot threads i'd have nothing to do.

the web bot has not predicted anything correctly. don't pull me up urbansurvival.com and show me something from there. would a commercial for burger king tell you its bad? no so why would urban survival tell you web bot is wrong.

show me some unbiased third party web sites that have confirmed their predictions. ATS doesnt count.

as for the ice storm. well anyone who follows weather trends can tell you when to expect what. ill take my local weather instead of a POS program that can't even get dates right.

Other than the idea of looking for a trend in which to predict market information for a profit, it appears that the purpose will be predicting disasters and other negative events. It is a shame they can't also look for positive trends. Maybe if mankind spent more time believing and thinking positive the world might swing into a more positive direction.

Hey Oz....how are you?

I wondered about the past prediction the Time Monks made about the Tsunami in Indonesia...they were quite accurate with that one, including how many people would be victims, and was curious about how you think they came up with such an unlikely prediction? If you have listened to their interviews on YouTube you will have heard that they are actually very self effacing guys who admit that they get lots of things wrong and are trying hard to get this new technique right. The only way that they can sharpen up what they do is to put predictions out there and conpare them after the timescale had passed with what actually happened to build up more and more reference points to make future work more accurate.

If what they say is correct and we do all have backgound level psychic awareness that feeds the change in language we put out, then of course our awareness and emotions will react to natural events as well as those that are entirely synthetic.

Isn't actually the change in language that they work with, rather than the actual language itself? Can someone clarify?

Cait x

reply to post by roadgravel


It's possible that the underlying mechanism behind it relates to peoples' innate sensitivity to catastrophism. Think of it like a deeply embedded 'survival instinct'. Whatever it is that triggers our subconscious is more concerned with protecting us then bringing up positive stuff.

I'm sorry ATS!

I confess I have been fascinated by the web-bot for a year or so. I have even posted a few threads about it.

I now believe it is crap - no better than ink blots and tea leaves - and I will try to be more discerning in the future.

similar to the way google, yahoo and the other search engines come up with hits.

Well, now Google has admitted to manipulating search results and actually picking and choosing what the search results will be!

www.theregister.co.uk...

Google this week admitted that its staff will pick and choose what appears in its search results. It's a historic statement - and nobody has yet grasped its significance.

reply to post by OzWeatherman


omg.... wow.. here I see people agreeing with you and I said the exact same thing in my post about the dec12 prediction.

I am a programmer. The people that replied wanted to challenge my knowledge of programming. They thought I dont' know anything.

Then some people tell me to research quantum mechanics which is physics.

I just wanted to come on here and say that I been saying this for a long time. Every type of web bot post I see on ATS I reply saying what your saying exactly.

I give them a wikipedia link and plus a history channel video of the dudes themselves explaining what they are doing.

They think that the web bot can time travel and go into the future and come back with answers . I was like what?

These people tell me to think outside the box. I was like I do... but when I know something is not true.. I know it.

I haven't seen any earthquake yet.... where is this earthquake.

reply to post by computerwiz32


look the web bot is never wrong. there is a very logical explanation for why there was no earthquake.

on octber 28th the GFL arrived and with the help of reptilians they cloaked themselves only reaveling them themselves to people who truly believe. then on novmeber 4th they made there presence known by getting the antichrist obama elected. then they read out of the book of web bot and using high tech deciphers found out that an earthquake is coming between the time of december 10th and 15th so they used an earthquake stopper gun and stopped it.

see makes perfect sense. if you dont believe it then your ignorant.







god i hope no one takes that seriously

Originally posted by greeneyedleo

similar to the way google, yahoo and the other search engines come up with hits.

Well, now Google has admitted to manipulating search results and actually picking and choosing what the search results will be!

www.theregister.co.uk...

Google this week admitted that its staff will pick and choose what appears in its search results. It's a historic statement - and nobody has yet grasped its significance.

How can you not grasp the significance of this?! What do they take us for, idiots? It means that we are all being dumbed down, and conditioned by yet another source of information. It means that people should use other search engines that don't give the same results to a billion plus people.