Can McCain win?

reply to post by Jemison
They deleted that thread. Can't possibly figure out why, it prbably could have gone to BTS but they chose to flush it.

Yeah I am certain that McCain/Palin are going to win. There are many factors that recently lead me to go from weary to very positive. Of course the Bradley effect is one. Some things El Rushbo mentioned is another and Michael Savage's endorsement is yet another. Basically it is a wrap.

reply to post by deathhasnosound

Yeah I am certain that McCain/Palin are going to win.

I wish that I had your optimism and I hope that you are correct!

I was surprised to read multiple articles that show the undecided voters as being between 5 - 8%. That number seems very high when we are just a few days away from the election and really, with that many undecideds, I agree that McCain can win ... but I'm not really convinced that there ARE that many undecideds.

My concern is that the Bradley effect may be turned around and working in Obama's favor. Also, because Obama is only half black, those who might be hesitant to vote for a candidate based on their skin color may justify voting for him because he is half-white.

Jemison

reply to post by Jemison
I wouldn't worry about that one, Obama sold himself as the first black president and when people see him that is what they see.
Bradley effect is good for ten points and Obama's crew knows this, this is why they are fighting so hard.
And don't get dissuaded by hearing that it is a slam dunk because Obama is preparing his stage and junk for his victory party. McCain is also making the same preparations in Arizona at the Biltmore.

Obama and his media associates wants us to think it is over so that repubs stay home thinking that it is all over anyway. It is a cheap parlor trick don't let them fool you.
MARK MY WORDS, MCCAIN IS GOING TO WIN THIS ONE.

Republicans and conservatives are the silent majority....they are not as apt to participate in polls, voice their opinions loudly, or vote early. They vote on election day, they vote later on election day, and they don't broadcast.

McCain does have a chance of winning, and I have no doubt this will be a tight election....a whole lot closer than the polls show.

Republicans and conservatives are the silent majority....they are not as apt to participate in polls, voice their opinions loudly, or vote early.

I'm a conservative republican and I'm not silent by any means!

I don't think I would be as concerned if there wasn't early voting ... I believe that early voting is prompting many people to vote when normally they wouldn't bother and those people are mostly Obama supporters.

I don't remember any previous election that allowed for early voting. Is this new and why are they doing it?

Jemison

reply to post by Jemison


It isn't new. In Georgia, where I am, they've done early voting for at least the past 2 Presidential elections, as well as this one.

Dems vote early; Republicans don't (for the most part).

And, when I said "silent majority", I meant that they don't necessarily broadcast who they are and who they are going to vote for as publically or as often as Democrats and liberals. They tend to shy away from polls or doing exit polls.....it isn't that they are shy , it is just that they don't feel the need to "rah-rah" their party or their stand.

reply to post by skeptic1


Regardless of who wins, I think we can say for certainty that with the turnout numbers we're likely to see, the ol' silent majority is going to make itself heard loudly Tuesday night. Do they support Obama or McCain? Good question, but as I've indicated above, I have a feeling that the pollsters and the media are in for a surprise and that they're going to back McCain.

From FiveThirtyEight:

This is the most common scenario for McCain, which according to Nate Silver happened 169 times out of 10,000 simulations.

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Read it at FiveThirtyEight

reply to post by vor78

Regardless of who wins, I think we can say for certainty that with the turnout numbers we're likely to see, the ol' silent majority is going to make itself heard loudly Tuesday night.

I agree. There is no doubt in anyones mind that this election will make history (and already has) for a variety of reasons no matter who the winner turns out to be.

As for the early voting, I don't remember it being around when I was going to school in Georgia but since I wasn't a GA resident my absentee ballot was mailed to me from California so maybe I just wasn't paying attention.

Early voting isn't going on in all states, is it?

Jemison

Source

31 states have some form of early voting.

Is it not written in the words of the great sage Yogi Berra, "It ain't over till its over."?!?!?

I'm usually a little shakey of the polls, and I'm really unsure of them this year.

He's got a shot at it, a bit of a long shot, but it is very possible he could pull it out.

If the early voting trend continues; Palin/McCain are toast.

Readem an weep boys!

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

The most accurate poll in the 2000 and 2004 elections was the IDB/TIPP pole as mentioned by a previous poster. Here is the link:

www.ibdeditorials.com...

With numbers as close as they are (46.7% Obama, 44.6% McCain and 8.7% unsure), it seems very odd that people are writing McCain off as the loser.

It really smells like the media is playing a pivotal role in electing Obama simply by giving off the impression that Obama has won and a vote for McCain won't matter anyway.

Jemison

I heard somewhere that early on-site voting leans in Obama's favor, but the mail-in votes are very close and may lean Mccains way. Not sure what the number of early and mail-in votes are, or if it even makes any difference.

As for the reaction to whom ever wins from the public, I have seen many people posting in different threads here and other places that if Obama loses there will likely be riots.

My question is, does anyone think there could potentially be riots if Obama wins? I have noticed that people either LOVE him or HATE him. I rarely see middle ground on this. Which tells me either way, win or lose, there will be trouble.

Originally posted by Jemison
The most accurate poll in the 2000 and 2004 elections was the IDB/TIPP pole as mentioned by a previous poster. Here is the link:

www.ibdeditorials.com...

With numbers as close as they are (46.7% Obama, 44.6% McCain and 8.7% unsure), it seems very odd that people are writing McCain off as the loser.

It really smells like the media is playing a pivotal role in electing Obama simply by giving off the impression that Obama has won and a vote for McCain won't matter anyway.

Jemison

In 2000 they did average, and missed the mark by 2.5 points. They got close in 2004 but one good election for them doesn't make them the best to follow, especially considering in May they had Obama leading by 11 points when all the other pollsters had him struggling.

Also there's this

That's right ... IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?

IBD/TIPP puts an asterisk by this result, stipulating that "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size".

...

My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.

A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.

But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise.

Wouldn't consider them great. Sounds like they are still living in the past.

[edit on 2-11-2008 by davion]

McCain can win, but it's not very likely. Some people like to discuss teh Bradley effect, yet that hasn't affected Obama at all. He's usually spot on with the polling, if not 1 or 2 points above it. I believe there's no chance McCain wins unless Democrats get lazy and think this is in the bag. A really good site for Polling/Electoral vote analysis is www.fivethirtyeight.com...

reply to post by PowerSlave

My question is, does anyone think there could potentially be riots if Obama wins? I have noticed that people either LOVE him or HATE him. I rarely see middle ground on this. Which tells me either way, win or lose, there will be trouble.

That's an interesting point and one that I never considered until my Mom mentioned it this afternoon. I think everyone is fearful that Obama will be a huge target if elected but most people aren't even considering the possiblity of problems should Obama win.

A classmate of my 10 year old daughter told her that his parents told him that if McCain wins there will be a civil war in our town ... not all over the U.S., but specifically in our neighborhood streets! That freaked me out and made me wonder if something was already in the works.

Jemison

McCain can still win

They are already pulling up the Garbage trucks outside the local HS to silently dispose of the Obama Votes before they are counted...

Big Dudes with ski jackets and hunting rifles all over the place standing guard....

McCain is a lock

reply to post by djpaec

I beg to differ on this point. Obama's crew is a firm believer in the Bradley effect and they feel they need a 10 point cushion to counteract it.
From Rush Limbaugh:

Let me read you part four of this latest anonymous post from an Obama campaign worker. This is a different one than Sarah P. from yesterday. This is a long post it reads...

"I'm just going to read you this one point, number four. The Bradley Effect. Do not believe these public polls for a second. I just went over our numbers, found that we have next to no chance --" this is regarding Obama, "--
in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain but it's too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa are the true toss-up states.

The only two of these the Obama campaign feels confident are Iowa and New Mexico, but now Obama's headed back to Iowa on Monday.

The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we in the Obama campaign tend to take a ten-point percentage in allowing for this, a minus ten-point percentage for allowing this and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark.

That is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania. This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us. What truly bothers the Obama campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% refuse-to-respond result. You can't possibly include these in the polls, but they are. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they're voting for. The vast majority of these responders are McCain supporters. Obama is the hip choice and we all know it,"

"As part of my research duties I scour right-wing blogs and websites to get somewhat of a feel as to what's being talked about on the other side. Much of it's nonsense, but there are some exceptions which give the campaign jitters.
A spirited campaign has been made to infiltrate many pro-Hillary sites and discredit them. A more disorganized but genuine effort has also been made to sow doubts among the unapologetically right-wing sites such as RedState.com. "

"What is not mentioned or reported is not the underreported cell phone users or young voters we hear so much about. What's underreported is you, the American people.
That's underreported. I changed my somewhat positive opinion of this campaign during the unfair and sexist campaign against Sarah Palin.

I'll never agree with her on anything. I'll probably never vote for her, but I'm embarrassed at what's happened. I can't ignore our own hand in all this.
What I do know is I'm not voting Obama this time around. Treat that as you will."

Yet another anonymous poster from the Obama campaign to go with Sarah P. from yesterday that was on HillBuzz. And, by the way, Sarah P. is back. She's got another one today, and there are additional posts like this. Now, you might be saying, "Rush, are you sure this is not a setup?" Well, tell me something.
I share this stuff with you. I tell you it comes from the Obama campaign, disaffected female members of the Obama campaign.
Does it depress you? Does it inspire you not to vote, or does it do the opposite?
What could be in it for Obama to have people going on websites putting this stuff out? I can't think of anything. If you can, let me know.

www.rushlimbaugh.com...

Well if Limbaugh says it it must be true.