posted on Nov, 2 2008 @ 01:22 PM
Of course he can win. Until the votes are counted Tuesday night, nothing else matters. The fact remains that Obama is polling at or below his
affiliation advantage in virtually every poll. The pollsters are spotting Obama 6-10% in this regard, yet even in 2006, this differential was just
2%. If its 2% again this year, Obama will likely lose.
Simply put, if the GOP turns out, he has a chance. I suspect they will and I fully expect that rural voters and those in small cities and towns,
who lean solidly GOP, will turn out in force. Obama may yet win, but he will have a very difficult battle on his hands in many of the swing
states, given that they generally have large rural populations.
Finally, there's the fact that, in recent elections, over 10% of the population has reported in exit polls that they made up their mind in the
final three days. Those usually break against the incumbent. In this case, with no incumbent, they will probably break against the odds on
And just one more thing: if you need a little encouraging news, IBD currently has Obama up 46.7-44.6, with almost 9% undecided. The interesting
part, of course, is Obama well below 50% and the high number of undecideds. IBD was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and they use a much more
narrow affiliation spread than other pollsters, 3% (40D, 37R, if memory serves). If they're right, its anyone's game.
[edit on 2-11-2008 by vor78]