Wall Street Advisor Says Stock Food

Saw this article when it first came out. It was actually posted in either breaking or current events (before the Global Meltdown forum). Personally, I never thought we'd see sub $90bbl oil much less around $60 again at the time. I follow soft commodities much less than I do stocks and metals except as finished products on the shelfs at the grocery store. Though thankfully gas has gone down quite a bit of late, I haven't yet noticed a drop at the grocery store. The storing of some amount of long shelf life food is not a bad idea even if we don't get a Depression or Sit-X. Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, blizzards, icestorms, and tornadoes can interrupt normal routines from days to weeks.

I'm so happy to learn that the crisis facing governments, economies, and markets around the world is only the hype of a media that had their head up their ass calling bottom after breached bottom since March. And that it has nothing to do with: unregulated derivatives, toxic debt, insolvent banks, stupid loans,courrupt politicians on both sides, total deregulation of the banking industry, opaque balance sheets, taxpayer fleecing, outrageous CEO pay,CDS, MBS, vanishing 401ks, looted pensions, decimated manufacturing base, costly wars, slowing global growth and rising unemployment. I'm so glad it's all in my head, and don't hear ordinary people (contractors, laid off manufacturing workers and even government employees) talking about how bad it is every day.

It will at some point in the future get better I'm sure and those that made the decision to seek "return of" as opposed to "return on" capital 9-12 months ago will have the opportunity of a century to build wealth at some point. I do intend to be one of them. I moved everything in my IRA into cash and treasuries months ago, and while my timing and performance has not been the best with my more speculative accounts, I can say that I would be worse off if I had just left it alone a year ago instead of choosing to more actively manage it and short (via puts and inverse etfs) some things that deserved it. Given that the issues that have recently affected world markets, IMHO are largely unresolved, I'll wait for a little more clarity before I hop back into regular buy and hold investing. I looked at the 2yr chart of the DOW and S&P, and over the last month and a half, it looks like a cardiac monitor. I'm not that great at T&A but know it's not a healthy chart.

Most people aren't really taking the Depression possibillity as seriously as they should. We never do. I'm lucky to have some family still living who has living memory of the Great Depression. They have taken great interest in the current situation and are very concerned. As I contemplate the differences in them and our generations (boomers,xers, and ys) I wonder if we have the moral character to make it through such times without leading to the rise of some greater tyranny or mad max type scenario.

I think we will soon have a confirmation whether we will experience deflationary, stagflationary, or hyperinflationary conditions in the recession. I know it is blasphemy to goldbugs and Keynsians but my bet is still on deflation, but recent government actions have caused me not to rule out hyper inflation. I almost feel sorry for which idiot wins the US election as I don't think the outcome will be much different except in how quickly we smell the sulfur. McCain is quite likely to continue the policies that got us here with freinds like Phil Gramm (though if he wins maybe we'll get the maveric back) and most likely take us longer to hit the bottom--a slow bleed if you will. Obama is likely to dust off the FDR play book and go beyond stabilizing a sitution long enough for the market to work it out and actually make it worse through government interference( but maybe he's the moderate he has sold himself to be). So economically our choices are like a choice of drinks between hemlock and anti-freeze or the choice between receiving a gut shot or a head shot.

I honestly hope I'm totally wrong in what I think is and will happen, but so far the people I've paid the most attention to have been right, and even they are disturbed about it.

I'll close with this last bit of sarcastic hyperbole. I really appreciate the eternal optimist and also the cynical wisearse, but really wish the argument over the punchbowl being half empty or half full should have ended when the drunk dancing with the lit candelabra stubled into the curtains and it could have put the fire out.

Absolutely.

People put money "in the bank" for future needs.

People might want to put a little food in the pantry for future needs as well.

IMO, I would think this would simply be *common* sense.

Doomsday...please keep us up to date with your new thread. I will be interested for one.

I think many people tend to forget that the way we live now is very artificial. We have never been spoiled like we are today with our reliable Western food supply that depends on our structure of supermarkets largely to keep us supplied with what we need...or what we've been conditioned to need. Even my own family history here in the UK shows that as recently as the 1950's and 1960's, people were in the habit of hoarding supplies and preparing for winter and other shortages. I live in a very harsh climate, and know from experience that there is not a single year that goes by when we escape having a powercut, a snow in, or some other event like a storm that can cause total chaos. It's in our Celtic nature to be prepared for this. We have to make sure the absolute basics are covered by stockpiling a little, because our infrastructure is so fragile. It would take only one nuke, one major weather event, one assasination, one natural disaster, one EMP device, and we would be looking out for ourselves. Supermarket shelves would empty in a day, and very few people would have the financial resources just to suddenly go out and buy and extra two or three months worth of food, even if they could get it.

It has nothing to do with how much food will cost in the future, at least for me. It's about having sufficient to survive until I can create an alternative. like growing more beans and vegetables next years, *IF* I need to. It's all about planning and making ourselves safe, not doom mongering. It also teaches us to be more self sufficient, which is never a bad thing. A few extra packets of pasta, rice and lentils, a few extra tins of beans and frozen vegetables are the kinds of things we use anyway, so I just make sure I get more than I need.

I live in the sticks and every Friday I go to town to do everything that needs to be done - bank, gas, groceries, etc.

Friday week - bread $2.35, sugar 4# $1.58, Lipton tea bags $1.50, bananas
$.44 lb.

Last Friday - bread $2.58, sugar 4# $1.98, Lipton tea bags $1.59, bananas
$.43 lb.

These are just the four I remember.

I don't drink Coke much, but decided I'd treat myself. 20oz. $1.30. Last time I treated myself it was $1.09.

As in the case of bananas, the price on a few things were down a bit, but overall everything was up.

I buy my veggies at a local veggie market and the prices are about the same as the grocery store, but the veggies are better.

If I had the money and the space I would do some serious stocking up. Even though I don't have a lot of extra cash for stocking up, I have even less room to store things. I have been picking up a few extras each time I go, but I'm about out of places to put it. I cleaned shelves in my clothes closet and now have canned goods stacked next to shoes!

I just figured that it is because the country is going broke they want people to spend more money.

I guess they need to scare monger people into parting with their cash any way they can. I think they know Christmas spending this year just isn't going to cut it.

Those who are always prepared will never get caught out.
Like those idiots who caused riots stockpiling fuel when there were shortages.
They paid premium $$$, now it's half the price and readily available.
Why wait for a crisis.
Be proactive not reactive.
Worst case scenario I eat beans for the next year.

Not only would the shelves be empty in a day or two, but could you imagine the line ups! debit and cc systems would probably crash and be cash only. I've been preparing since july throwing $150 per week into my stash and can feed my family very well with GOOD food for atleast 4 months. I even went out and bought a 100w solar array that charges a deep cycle marine battery for lighting ,portable dvd player,charging batteries,cel phones...basically anything that needs a recharge comes from the sun.

I stocked propane burners, 400 pc firstaid, hygiene supplies...plenty of ammo, tabbaco, and vodka.

I have spent a fair amount of time and money on my cache but I live in an earthquake zone and not taking any chances. And the more I think about it...its still not enough.

But at least I am ahead of the game. Everyone should be some what prepared...its your family after all.

reply to post by MischeviousElf


Commodities are actually a very good indication to the health of the economy..

For instance, from 1991-2001 the price of oil did not fluctuate much.. neither did the price of food. And if you look at inflation, unemployment and so forth through the 90's, we where doing alright.

In the past 8 years however.. it's been a roller coaster.

First, the Recession of 2001 brought with it ever increasing oil prices.. only now a news headline with the words "middle east" and "terror" somewhere meant that oil could move up $2-3 .. something never thought of in the 90's.

Remember everyone panicking "at what point by inflation is the price worse then the 1970's???"

It's $89 a barrel.. we hit $150

Partly due to a failing Dollar..

Now however the Dollar is making it's stellar come back, and with it the realization that we hit our economic peak and collapsed since then ..

Oil falling is a sign of a recession .. for areas in the M/E it could mean a depression.. several States moved to funds the rise of industries and even tourism (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait) .. but now over there it puts what we are going through to shame.

Oil peaking at $150 should have been a sign that .. something wasn't right.. it was not natural.. the way oil and wheat and rice inflated, supplies fluctuating wildly.. Something should have screamed out to us 'brace your selves" ..

Anyways, from reading your post I would honestly say that oil will keep falling, falling, falling. Food and other crops could rise for a different reason. Many farmers, especially in the "3rd world" rely on Bank Loans to buy all the material for the harvest, such as seeds, machinery needed, land renting etc.. if the credit freezes world wide and effects this, crops prices could soar.

Oil however will have nothing propping it up .. the reason OPEC is cutting back it's production is due to over production.. supplies are sitting in containers and storage on docks because demand has dropped.

House prices will plummet yet even further.. the housing correction has only seen on average 5-10% reduction in value.. when the price of houses could (and should imo) drop considerably more.. especially on the West Coast.

What we are looking for is a "return to real value" .. oil should have kept it's same growth rate that it had, because the World economy never accelerated.. we went from a recession to a massive equity bubble built on fabricated wealth. Same with home prices, obviously they stretch income to far, we need a return of actual real value..

PS. With the Dollar making it's comeback, it brings about some good like lower gas prices.. but all these companies posting above expected profits? .. Expect those profits to be erased with the new exchange rate.