Wall Street Advisor Says Stock Food, page 1

Wall Street Advisor Says Stock Food

online.wsj.com

I don't want to alarm anybody, but maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food.

No, this is not a drill.

You've seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they're a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.

Reality: Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.

"Load up the pantry," says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street's top investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. "I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn't going to happen here. But I don't know how the food companies can absorb higher costs." (Full disclosure: I am an investor in Quaker Strategic)

Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you'll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.

(visit the link for the full news article)

In the "great" depression after the 1929 stock market crash there was tremendous hardship, unemployment and, millions of Americans actually starved to death.

As more and more families became destitute, parents, who could no longer feed their children, would desperately search for relatives, acquaintances and ultimately even total strangers who could feed them and were willing to take them into their homes. The parents would then try to fend for themselves and were often totally lost to memory.

The parents, of course hoped and told themselves that the children would be okay. Unfortunately, in many cases the children were treated like unpaid servants required to do whatever was demanded of them and be thankful that they were allowed to have food and a place to stay.

During those years over 80% of the population was closely tied to the small family farms so most of the people could actually get food. There was food even though many had no money to buy it.

Going into this present depression less than one half of 1% of our population is connected to farming. Further, we are in the third year of a global famine. America will soon see food shortages even for those who still have money. The financial crash is so severe that grocery stores can't get credit to restock their shelves and farmers can't get loans to plant and harvest. America is well on track for runaway inflation where $100 loaves of bread will not be unrealistic.

Before inflation hits and while there is still food, every one of us must get the supplies that we need immediately.

Food for thought? Pardon the Pun!

online.wsj.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I figured Low Level Mason might benefit from a little Aesop...

www.bartleby.com...
The Ant and the Grasshopper
IN a field one summer’s day a Grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart’s content. An Ant passed by, bearing along with great toil an ear of corn he was taking to the nest. 1
“Why not come and chat with me,” said the Grasshopper, “instead of toiling and moiling in that way?” 2
“I am helping to lay up food for the winter,” said the Ant, “and recommend you to do the same.” 3
“Why bother about winter?” said the Grasshopper; “we have got plenty of food at present.” But the Ant went on its way and continued its toil. When the winter came the Grasshopper had no food, and found itself dying of hunger, while it saw the ants distributing every day corn and grain from the stores they had collected in the summer. Then the Grasshopper knew:
“IT IS BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE DAYS OF NECESSITY.”

I'd venture to guess that Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal is a sufficiently wise Ant, and the article in it's entirety, regardless of when it was written, presents some interesting figures...

online.wsj.com...
Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.
And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They're all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.
These are trends that have been in place for some time.
And if you are hoping they will pass, here's the bad news: They may actually accelerate.
The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.
Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on. Kraft saw its raw material costs soar by about $1.25 billion last year, squeezing profit margins. The company recently warned that higher prices are here to stay. Last month the chief executive of General Mills, Kendall Powell, made a similar point.

Even us poor Profane folks can see the explosive growth of Food prices at the grocery store... four pound bags of sugar for a little more than a five pound bag used to be?



Mod edit: Removed quotes.

[edit on 11/1/2008 by Hal9000]

reply to post by jpvskyfreak

---

Yes, the problem is REAL .
I do all of my shopping for food one time a month.
I've always shopped at a local discount store called Save-a-Lot.
I was in this store a few days ago and I couldn't believe what I seen.
There was only a third of the food stacked on shelves that are normally stacked to the ceiling!
There were some shelves completely empty of staples like sugar and flour.
I knew right then that something is very wrong. I've also noticed that the prices in this store are going higher each time I shop and this is a 'discount" food store.
Needless to say, I've stocked up on food now.
It's going to get real bad.


[edit on 1-11-2008 by MagicaRose]

Low level Mason .... this video may educate you to the present problem that's going on. It's not fear mongering it's about taking care of your family.

Its too bad the poor little ant isn't up to date on the pricing commodity crashes, and thus would know it is a good idea to NOT stock up and horde when prices are DROPPING because you will lose money. Not to mention things like opportunity cost: even if prices are rising on certain things, why would I panic and stock up for nuclear winter when the few percent I might save is no where near what I could save by investing that money else where and simply buying as needed?

These "omg stock up now and run for the hills" threads are posted year after year.

But hey, I know any calls for reason will fall on deaf ears. Its simply more fun to panic. The opportunity cost of wise investing and buying as needed beats panicked reactions to media fear mongering every time.

Heating oil prices are lower now than they ever were last winter, so anyone hysterically buying heating oil got themselves into a mess: www.oilnergy.com...

Just one of many commodity prices that are going down, down, down.

[edit on 1-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

I find it interesting that after his comments in April, the Company peaked and went into decline shortly after. Investment company efforts are lost in the lack of accountability:

Stock figures before and after:


Someone knows when the time was right for buying and selling with this one.

Interesting - as for the scaremongering. That's just smoke and mirrors.

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
Iwww.oilnergy.com...

Just one of many commodity prices that are going down, down, down.

[edit on 1-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

Thank you for once for actually having a source that is valid, and you answered my q as I typed...

Im sure though if you look at the price for a couple of months ago they were horrendous as everyone can see from your info.

As we currently Know the reason the price of Oil and heating is down, is fears by all futures traders in these commodities of A PROLONGED RECESSION going into 2010 or beyond or even the D word.

Therefore as factories are not like, GM making the cars they used to, laying of staff and the economies manufacturing output worldwide drops, the scarcity or demand for oil and its derivatives does to, along with its price.

However we all know that OPEC are not happy about this, and as the price as shown by your chart is only just at current a little shy of last years figures.

As I posted above I believe Venezuala provided emergency heating oil to people in the US didn't they, when at prices nearly exactly the same as now?

So if OPEC as expected really cut back production of OIL the price will spike again as it will be the only future worth trading on, oh and other defence sives no?

Strange that many of the worlds leading strategists are stating that they see Arable farm land as the best investment at the moment, and the only steady growth investment without volatility over the coming 36 months.

My friend would like a chat with you in a dark alley trust me, its very very F****ng real for him and his kids, and his job loss and therefore home was a direct result of this supposed imaginary smoke and mirrors illusion.

But thanks for the link puts the volatility of the Heating Costs in good easy to see form, and also how quickly this essential for familes service could wipe their lives out if they reach levels of only 2 months ago.

Did you watch the BBC report?

Elf.

elf edit spelling and to remove "your assesment" on paragraph 2 :-)

[edit on 1-11-2008 by MischeviousElf]

reply to post by princeofpeace & LowLevelMason & Beifnei

---

Really?

I certainly hope Opec as your chart shows LLM does not cut production dont you?

OPEC will cut oil output further, if needed, to achieve stability in the oil market, state television on Saturday quoted Iran's oil minister as saying.

Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari also said Iran would cut output by 199,000 barrels per day (bpd) in line with a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce OPEC production by 1.5 million bpd from Nov. 1, TV said.

Gaurdian Business 12 hours ago

I pray you are right OPEC are wrong?

That chart is truly very indicative of the risks.

General Motors Corp. (GM) on Monday said it will eliminate 30,000 manufacturing jobs, close or reduce operations at 12 plants in North America and slash its vehicle output as the automaker struggles to avoid bankruptcy.

The job cuts represent 27 percent of the company's total North American manufacturing work force, using GM data from the end of last year. The announcement by Rick Wagoner, chairman and CEO of the world's largest automaker, represents 5,000 more job cuts than the 25,000 the automaker had previously indicated it planned to cut.

Source

I suppose its not real for them, they will find it easy to get by?

Substantial pay rises are being sought to compensate for sharp increases in energy and food prices, the union-funded Labour Research Department warned last night.

With strikes now planned by civil servants and teachers balloting for further strike action, the LRD predicts a much more unstable pay situation this winter.

Gaurdian

I suppose it's just a dream for them too not real?

Ford, General Motors and Chrysler were once supreme; now with consumers rejecting gas-guzzlers and car loans drying up, the outlook is bleak for Detroit - and the rest of the world will soon feel the pain too.

For sale: four-bedroom detached bungalow, some work needed, cost: $800. The catch? It's in Detroit, home to the once mighty Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, and not many people want to live in the Motor City now that the American car giants are laying off tens of thousands of workers.

The bungalow is not the only bargain basement property up for grabs: thousands of others are on the market for $10,000 or less. One estate agent who has sold 50 properties - mostly foreclosures - in Detroit is trying to remain upbeat but admits: 'It is a blue-collar town like a lot of other American towns, but it has been hit harder than most.' He says there are houses are going for $5,000 while homeowners next door are struggling to pay a $60,000 to $70,000 mortgage on an identical property. 'It's obviously devastating for them.'

Gaurdian, Not printed Yet This mornings Edition.

Hey the whole City of Detroit does not matter and will have no effect on the wider economy? More imaginations eh?

As prices for U.S. soybeans rise, so does hunger in Indonesia
With the dollar a day he earns scrounging for scrap metal and paper, Jumadi can't buy his family beef or even chicken. But until now, the rail-thin scavenger could at least afford soy.

LA Times (AP) This coming morning's edition

Hey who cares the Third or second world has not mattered anyhow, send the jobless, homeless hungry guys from Detroit there?

IMF Food and Fuel Prices—Recent Developments,
Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses
An Update
Fuel and food prices have eased from recent peaks, but remain well above their levels at the onset of the recent price surges. As of mid-September, oil prices are at some 40 percent below their mid-July peaks, but still double the levels recorded at end-2006. Similarly, food prices have eased 8 percent from their June peak but are still 44 percent above end-2006 levels.
Both supply and demand factors have contributed to the recent softening in commodity prices.
Nevertheless, medium-term supply constraints are likely to keep prices high, as many of the fundamental forces behind the price surge are still in effect.

International Monetary Fund

Shall we ignore the IMF as well then?

What you guys dont seem to understand is the interrelated nature of this, the Macro economic affect and the timing issue.

Oh ive seen it on the news and ATS but IM still ok, so its not real.

But the worry is that due to the modern world, the massive bailouts to date and the other long standing insidious and creeping underlying problems of the last ten years, whereby growth being based on both cheap labour in China and a Credit and housing bubble driving "paper" wealth as proven in the Western world with the housing and credit crunch, that it is impossible to go back to how things were.

The factors that fed and drove the last 10-20 years have gone.

The house of cards is falling, and when the credit cards come home too with an estimated default of nearly $2 trillion in europe and the US, which is equivalent to the current Housing crash there will be no going back in any way shape or form.

You guys don't understand, look through my posts from when I first joined, I have worked in finance I have run a small team of secured credit Underwriters, I have qualifications in this, do you really really think I want this?

I have been a named person in a regulatory environment within financial services. I also have had some commercial experience within financial institutions. I actually left my last role due to family reasons, an illness in my family that needed love and time which you cant do working 80 hours a week.

Also Financial services was a recent part of my working life that I did not like too much, the greed and profit over poeples lives mentality. Also it did not fit in with my spiritual beliefs or practises.

But I looks like I cant go back to my career, which I wanted to do in an ethical firm of IFA's or such like.

My real love was care work and I shall probably go back to that in some form, but at minimum wage in the UK.

In some of my early posts you will see years before this I saw the dangers and the corporate paramaters placed on the business models, the decision makers on credit transactions and how we were forced to operate in those confines.

Having said yes or no to more money being passed to individuals in one week than you have probably ever seen in your life, and that's if your a millionaire I really know the ins and outs of it. The exposure people are under.

I have seen peoples incomings and outgoings with their wage slips, bank statements passports etc to make those calls, and I know that about 70% of the people in the UK earning under £50k especially if under 35 and no equity on properties are really really on the edge.

Please know what you are taking about and don't berate people for telling the truth.
I enjoy or want this?
Where am I going to work?
or my friends?
Do you really really think I want the opportunity to earn 100k+ a year gone for ever from my life?

Wake up, its Not in My Backyard Yet you might think, but if you knew anything about history, economics both on a macro level and micro level, had actually worked at the coalface you would understand.

There are too many factors for things to ever be the same again im sorry.
Kind Regards,

Elf
Make the call im happy to prove -contracts2mods

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Really?

Really. You have just proved that it is the media's job to attempt to get people as scared as possible. Good news does not make the news. Taking isolated, one case scenarios and blowing it up to make it look like a wide spread event is the primary tactic employed by the media to make things look bad. They will interview 100 people looking for someone to say how horrible life is, and ignore the 99 who have no problems and do a 2 hour special on the one person who gives them a sob story.

I am not sure what you hoped to prove with OPEC links - OPEC has already stated they would cut output, and oil prices did not surge as people were hoping (that is, the media and those who hope for doom).

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
That chart is truly very indicative of the risks.

Its indicative that prices go up and down. Thats how life works.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
I suppose its not real for them, they will find it easy to get by?

Who cares? If you cannot plan for losing your job then its not my fault when you do. Just because a company cuts jobs doesn't mean its time to wring our hands and go "oh woe is us, look how horrible things are" - people get laid off routinely. Its part of life. I've been laid off on the streets before - GUESS WHAT - I didn't cry about it and didn't want anyone to feel sorry for me. It was my own fault - I should have planned for being laid off by saving more money.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
Hey the whole City of Detroit does not matter and will have no effect on the wider economy? More imaginations eh?

Yep, sure is. The entire state of Michigan has been in a recession since the 1990s. Somehow that didn't bring the world to an end and we somehow had the boon times of the 1900s and early 2000s.

Livestock prices dropping
www.cattlenetwork.com...

Commodity prices post biggest price drop in 52 years
www.bloomberg.com...

Wheat, grain, and corn dropping to levels not seen since last year
www.kansascity.com...
www.readingeagle.com...

But no...lets ignore the data and just all get so upset over how absolutely horrible things are and blame our personal circumstances on the big evil "economy" that is just making things so horrible for us all - even though prices are dropping across the board.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
But the worry is that due to the modern world, the massive bailouts to date and the other long standing insidious and creeping underlying problems of the last ten years, whereby growth being based on both cheap labour in China and a Credit and housing bubble driving "paper" wealth as proven in the Western world with the housing and credit crunch, that it is impossible to go back to how things were.

Yep, the fear mongers come out and try to scare everyone every 10 years or so on yet another reason why things will never be good and why China will control the world. Except in the 1980s it was Japan. In the 1990s it was India. Now its China. They have always been wrong.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
The house of cards is falling, and when the credit cards come home too with an estimated default of nearly $2 trillion in europe and the US, which is equivalent to the current Housing crash there will be no going back in any way shape or form.

Must be why last week the markets all were up and the US stock markets had their biggest weekly gain ever, even though you were telling us that things would be so bad that markets would close early? Sorry, there is no house of cards. We may be headed toward a recession, its normal for markets to go down when that occurs.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
You guys don't understand, look through my posts from when I first joined, I have worked in finance I have run a small team of secured credit Underwriters, I have qualifications in this, do you really really think I want this?

This is a appeal to authority - frankly, I know quite a few people in finance and who work in derivatives, and none of them are anywhere as close to the doom you keep predicting nor the doom the rest of the board seems to want.

Financial planning for likely events its always smart. Hoarding food like the great depression is coming is not planning for a likely event, and will actually cost you money. As someone else has posted in this thread, I think most of ATS just wants disaster because it gets people excited, and then they can use all of the food they bought in hysterical fits of fear.

Frankly, I try to stay out of the threads about the economy because it never gets anywhere. The bulk of ATS posters are actively hoping for catastrophe because they want something that will justify what they have claimed will happen every year since this board has existed. When people want disaster they will not listen to anything except that which they believe supports their view. All who disagree are told they are dumb for not preparing for Armageddon and that they are sheep. I shouldn't have gotten involved in this thread, but I didn't think - so I'll just ignore this thread now.

[edit on 1-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

reply to post by This American

---

ya, i agree not even the smartest can tell whats around the market bend,don't llisten to the predictions,take care of your family

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