Cramer thinks the Dow will drop to 4700 by Tuesday (10/14)

Wow, at this point i don't think even a rebound in stocks and the financial institutions will rally help us right now.

I think we need to market to level out, and to very slowly rise. VERY SLOWLY. To were people are confident in investing and no longer panicking. If we either fall or go back up quickly it could spell some problems.

Problem (1) The market goes back up and rallies.

The feds have been pumping money into the economy at a huge rate! the flood gated of cash are open and pouring into the economy. This is because we are goign through Deflation right now, and to counteract it and to keep us stable the feds are injecting cash into the economy. this is because the banks aren't lending, the banks aren't making money with money. And also people are holding their cash as its the only think thats not tanking in value right now.

So if the market rebounds, the banks get that extra capital, and start lending again. The money machine will be back in motion, but the amount of cash in the economy is at huge levels. It the economy rebounds quickly, the feds wont have an effective way to remove the extra cash in our system and we will go through extreme inflation. It will be a mess. Gold and silver prices have been dropping though this entire market crash, but demand for silver and gold is at all time highs. And as demand has skyrocketed silver has gone from $20 to $10 in 3 months. Once we hit inflation, it will not be pretty.

(2) The market continues to crash. Well, the economic system will just fail. banks and businesses will start to fall and it will just put their weight on the shoulders of businesses that were holding their own and it will cause all the knees of the world economy to fall, like a cheerleader pyramid almost. If the small person at the top falls, everyone falls. People will be holding money like their is no tomorrow, all the (electronic cash) will be lost and just disappear. FDIC will not be able to cover all its deposits it says it will. The fact they say is just to make the people feel more secure. They can no way in hell honestly insure all the deposits. its a joke. Its like saying, If the economy fails we will give everyone a million dollars in gold! Its not possible. Cash may become VERY valuable, but thats when the monetary system is abolished with another currency.



These are just some possible scenarios. Possible, but these could change with future developments. But as of what is going on this week, this is what i see as the two most dangerous scenarios.

If the markets slowly increase and heal slowly, we may get out of this ok, but i think this will be hard to do. And i for some reason don't think this is in the agenda. Because this entire collapse seems almost fixed. Its complete haywire, but its happening so precisely and beautifully. Like a building being demolished. To the outside it looks like a disaster, but to those who know about building structures and engineering can see that certain things don't happen without extra manipulation.



And also about CRAMER.... Anyone who says "im going to do the opposite of what Cramer says", shouldn't be allowed to invest, haha. Im not saying people who fallow him are any better, Any wise investor does their own homework, and their own research. because sometimes when you copy of your neighbor, they just copied off the next guy, and the first guy was wrong. So if you go with your own gut you will only have yourself and your research to blame, and you will have no honest way of knowing if the copied answer is right nor not. so you might as well just be guessing. Only copy if there right 100% of the time! hah and we know every stock trader is right 100% of the time. ; )

For those who may wonder about the lowest point in the history of DJIA, the day was June 27, 1932 when the index closed at 44.39 points. To repeat this record, the Dow would have to slip and fall to 1610 points. This figure is adjusted for inflation and the population growth.

Well they are throwing the kitchen sink at the system this morning. Unlimited money to try and fire up the system. Americas still bankrupt, but people will try and make some dough on the stocks, lol.

Originally posted by stander
For those who may wonder about the lowest point in the history of DJIA, the day was June 27, 1932 when the index closed at 44.39 points. To repeat this record, the Dow would have to slip and fall to 1610 points. This figure is adjusted for inflation and the population growth.

Its not really about the lowest level, its more about the % drop. back in 1932 the Stock market was relatively young. companies hadn't grown that much.

Also the first initial crash in the depression wasn't too much worse than what we have seen, it was the fallowing years after where the market slowly trickled down. So its really difficult to compare thsi to the crash of the depression unless you look at it from a series of many years. and many years to come since we haven't had as much time since our all time high.

also at this time investors were not exactly sure what the stock market was so they blindly invested just assuming everything was going to make money, people didn't really have the knowledge that they could really lose money, so everyone invested in it just assuming it was going up regardless. this is not the case today so much.

But if we do continue to fall over the days, months, quarters, and years...And do go into a depression, it will in no way resemble the last depression. The government will act in a much different way, people will act in a different way, and the market will fall in a much different way. This is not the same market we had 90 years ago.

reply to post by In nothing we trust


What can I say that you didn't? Ditto!

Sorry for the one liner.

Looks like Cramer wasn't getting the inside scoop for the weekend "surprises". Granted, neither were we, but we couldn't have been expectd to.

Can't wait to see what he says today.

[edit on 10/13/2008 by Relentless]

reply to post by Relentless


I would guess that he is just going to move the goalpost a little bit and say that it will just happen a little later. I doubt he will reverse his stance. Who am I to guess what he will think though? I am just guessing.

reply to post by Trayen11


And it is a very GOOD opinion.

Although I believe it is simply setting up for another fall later on in the week. Today (Monday) will be a good day for the DOW.

reply to post by Karlhungis


That is what he should say, but I wouldn't put it past him to rah rah into the bounce like someone saved the day (keep us all calm ya know).

I would be very wary about any rally in the markets today, for the simple fact that investors are jittery and any bad news could cause a stampede. I would rather sit it out and wait a while myself.

Off topic, Relentless could you cross post the information from this thread to the ticker forum? I haven't seen these bank reserve figures over there and I don't have an account there so I can't post it. I'd like to see what those guys make of the numbers.

YEAH, i am not sold right now that today will be an up day.

I almost can assume it will open up big, but i wouldn't be shocked if it still closes lower on the day.

I just don't know if it will be able to stay up from the open prices. But if it does end up, i don't think it will be much, or it will be on very little volume.

Plus our markets are being manipulated ALOT right now by foreign hedge funds... possibly from Dubai... This was the case last Friday on the rally at the end of the day and then the sell off before close. There were some HUGE orders going through.

My pessimistic prediction is for the Dow @ 4200.
The bloodletting is not over, though I am sure we will see substantial swings, especially this week.
Few have yet to realize the problems with control of the money and housing being taken over by governments, and the banking system being consolidated and "bought out" by governments.
Many of the measures being tried now are repeats of what was done during the great depression, and will have similar effects.
A long forthcoming decade or so of buying and holding on the lulls in market activity will reward you in the end----if you can wait that long.

alot of the selling is due to margin calls and forced selling of large firms

this weekends G7 /8 action to directly re-capitalize banks should strengthen the banks but i'm curious to see if the U.S adopts the policy's the UK banks asked for (with there share of ownership now) i am referring to the U.K offering the banks money so long as they lend it out!

I think alot of banks will be weary of lending money out due to something that is NOT MENTIONED IN THE MEDIA

The banks realize a large devaluation of the currency is coming,so why lend dollars of higher purchasing power now out to the long term for dollars that will be paid back with increasingly less purchasing power!!!

and that within a month or so we will see a tremendous buying opportunity as cash is the temporary king and the purchasing power that cash investors will have in the next month may be the highest they will ever have. After that all the suckers left in cash may rush for the exit's as the currency's are devalued to death, that would = a rush into tangible assets as a safe haven (and no longer gov't debt) that would lead to Bond yields exploding higher first on the 10 and 30 year bond and then later on the shorter stuff as well. Then the govt's themselves will implode and the soverign nation states will be weakened to pave the way for a fascist financial one world "gov't".

The smart money went into bonds LAST YEAR to preserve there wealth and some of that smart money is heading back into commodity's as we are probably near a low (within 60 days) due to 1. short term dollar strength/top 2. margin calls= forced selling for everything leading to prices nearer a bottom.

the stock market should have two opposing forces (one bullish /one bearish) margin calls= selling money moving out of bonds into commodity's as well as some stocks as a reflation is tried by the bubble blowers at the fed. the bubble's are becoming more and more reckless, first it was the tech stocks that were sacrificed when the bubble collapsed, then it was house prices, now if they accomplish reflation it will be currency's and there country's soverignty.

reply to post by cpdaman


that is very interesting. would you have any good sources, links, that i could read up on the devaluation of the currency?

of course im going to do a general search, but, i just thought i would ask first.

1040am atlantic shores time on the US

MARKET RALLY!!!!!! DOW up more than 400 points

reply to post by indigothefish


i had a feeling it would do that.

IMHO, though, it will only last a day or two max.

It is up almost 500 points now. We are saved, no need to worry anymore, phew that was a close one. Everything is ok now, continue spending!

DSR

i'm in a pinch for time but google john rubino's "death spiral" i believed it is linked at financial sense university he had one article 13 month's ago regarding this and then another last week.

This rally should take us back near 10,000 over the next two weeks IMO and then we will fall again because EARNING's will still be VERY BAD

also over at i-tulip form's they have some good historical analogy's about the politics of devaluation....over there ....they propose a period of deflation followed by massive reflation....................i try not to latch onto any of the major financial forums "lead thinkers" or head moderators pet ideas, but kind of take some from each and then throw in to the mix what i have read/agree with combined with what i believe is tons of evidence for a likely NWO game plan and figure something out from there.

Seems there is a pattern on the forums, that the head moderator/forum owner has a certain idea of what will happen but also has a big ego, and does not like his ideas questioned in a critial way, and some even go so far as to ban posters who argue in a very respectful logical way, it has been a big turn off toward joining (as well as the fee for joining$) and i really limit my lurking on those forums these days and this is why i stay and contribute to ATS.

[edit on 13-10-2008 by cpdaman]

yea...my forum lurking is pretty confined to ATS. and well, RCGoups, but that is a completly differnet subject. no RC threads on ATS.

Thanks for the info. I have heard a few things here and there about this, and decided to take a closer look at it.

thanks.

I must admit to some confusion, here. I keep hearing that the fundamental real problem is not the stock market, but the credit market. And I keep hearing that the credit market is still a gigantic mess...

I don't recall where right now, but I seem to have read over the weekend that domestic and international "letters of credit" (I think that was the term) are being refused at the moment.

These are instruments between banks that say "yeah, Joe is good for the money", so a manufacturer will ship goods to a distributor... ???

And that is still really messed, apparently.

If that is true, and if the credit market is not tightly bound to the stock market, does it really matter much what the market does? Is it necessarily a viable indicator of anything, other than indirectly?