Nuclear event survival chances

What are the chances of surviving a nuclear event of unknown magnitide by distance?

At 5 miles what are the chances of survival?

At 10 miles?

At 15 miles?

etc.


[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

This doesn't answer your question, but I'd like to use this thread to say that the government lies to you to make you feel better.

During the cold-war, what did little Johnny and little Suzie fear the most? They feared that they were going to get nuked by the USSR and die.

So what did the government do? They created all those "duck and cover" films. Remember those? The films would tell kids that if they saw a nuke going off or heard the sirens, to quickly get underneath their desks while at school.

In reality, would ducking under your desk do anything if a nuclear bomb is dropped next to your school? Of course not.

But the government wanted our kids to stop fearing that they would die, and instead focus on other things. So they created these films and lied to kids to make the kids feel better.


-LS

[edit on 4-10-2008 by LogicalSolution]

Originally posted by LogicalSolution
But the government wanted our kids to stop fearing that they would die, and instead focus on other things. So they created these films and lied to kids to make the kids feel better.

Ya I understand the chances of survival are bleak. I'm not talking about a full scale war, I'm talking about a one time event. And I understand it's pretty much a crap shoot and that there won't be any warning.

But how far do you need to be from the blast zone to stand even a basic chance of survival?

[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

What is the probable yield from a non-ICBM weapon?




[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

Your chances are almost nothing in the long run if in a major urban zone.

If one nuclear weapon is launched, chances are that all other major cities will be attacked.

Millions will die in the initial explosion, and millions more would die because of fallout. Epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid would run rampant. Mice and rats would torture you.

If you survive all of that, how are you going to get food? Clean water? Medical supplies?

Fuel will be scare so you cannot flee.

How can you possibly piece your life back together? Its wiping the slate clean.

If you survive all that, and COG has worked, you will be doing manual labor for the rest of your short life. For reconstruction purposes they will conscript citizens in a work=food pay.

Because of radiation exposure, you will die if not in weeks, months, or a short few years.

That's the rest of your life.

You might find this simulator interesting:
meyerweb.com...

if you jump into a refrigerator your chances are apparently very good.

i couldn't resist. but truthfully, i look forward to info in this thread, i have often wondered the same thing. i gave it a flag.

And here's wikis page on common yields...

Nuclear yields

If America was running 9k yield heads, wouldn't it be plausible to assume that the most advanced adversaries of today would have heads at least about 1k? (probably a lot more...)

reply to post by truth_seeker3

you seem to have mentioned almost everything...great job! how much does this change if you have a shelter underground? how close to ground zero could you be if you had a shelter? and how long of a food supply should be kept down there to ensure safety..a minimun number? 6 months? a year?

reply to post by Enigma Publius


Apparently Harrison Ford proved the refrigerator theory. In essence, were dead either way. I don't know though, they should test that theory though, it might be well worth.

Originally posted by LogicalSolution
You might find this simulator interesting:
meyerweb.com...

This is an excellent tool.

To go along with that I found a list of longitudes and latatudes for every major american city. Note: You have to put a - sign in front of the latitude when inputing co-ordinates into the simulator. Otherwise you end up in China.

www.realestate3d.com...

Now we just need to know the likely yield.

Note: Here are the longitudes and latatudes of every major world city.
www.realestate3d.com...

[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

I think it's gonna be 10KT

How big of a package would that be?

Anyone else want to make a guess as to the yield?

[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

Originally posted by In nothing we trust
I think it's gonna be 10KT

Mind filling us in on what's going to be 10KT?

-LS

reply to post by In nothing we trust


Well... if America had 9ks during the coldwar. I'd say 9k+?
I'm no engineer, but wouldn't advance in technology and propellant push the possibilities upward? Higher yields in smaller packages or just more powerful engines for same sized packages?

Originally posted by LogicalSolution
Mind filling us in on what's going to be 10KT?

Nuclear device detonated in a major american city.

This is all hypothetical, of course. What size of a nuclear weapon is readily transportable and easily concealed?

Just watch the grim TV film 'Threads' that should give you an indication of nuclear warfare survival chances.

Here:

en.wikipedia.org...

Originally posted by LogicalSolution

During the cold-war, what did little Johnny and little Suzie fear the most? They feared that they were going to get nuked by the USSR and die.

I was "little Johnny" back in the '50's and in hindsight the whole Cold War was something that just had to be experienced first hand. Fall out shelters were on every corner with that infamous "radiation" logo sign on the outside, backyard bomb shelters were all the rage, and honestly, people were conditioned that if they did everything they were told, they would be OK.

Your question is an honest attempt to understand the magnitude of a nuclear attack. Back in my day the bombs available were nothing compared to what we have today, so my opinion is, if you are close enough to even worry about it, you're already screwed.

A funny (?) story I have concerns the Seneca Army Depot located in Upstate NY in the Finger Lakes region. During the early'80's there were huge protests outside the base because it was strongly believed that the Depot was a repository for tactical nuclear warheads. A belief I shared by the way.
Well, one day my wife and I were driving by the base on the way to visit my father and she asked what would happen if one of the warheads went off. She thought that it wouldn't really be a big deal because the base was maybe 35 miles away from our house. I pulled out a map to show her that the reason the base seemed like it was far away was only because we had to drive around the end of one of the lakes to get there. As the crow flies, it was actually eight miles to our house.

So my answer to her, and to you, is don't worry about it. If it happens, there isn't a lot you can do about it anyway.

As my favorite comedian, Lewis Black, put it..(paraphrasing here) "OK kids, duck and cover, get under your desks, put your head between your knees, and kiss your ass good-bye.

Here's wishing we never have to worry about it.

Luck would matter more than anything else.

Blast and heat are just two of the preliminary effects. What about, say 100 miles down wind of a 1 mt or even a 100kt bomb.

I'd bet some money you don't have have any radiac equipment. Meters are good to have, and different meters for different things, but you also need personal dosimeters that can detect radiation. You could be fried and not even know it.

I had bookmarked this a while back. It mostly deals with surviving a nuclear disaster:

www.ki4u.com...

The link below, I bought the iosat couple of years ago. I have two packs for each member of my house. My wife thinks I went a little overboard.

www.nukepills.com...

I still have one of those plastic radiation detectors in my house. When the beads fall, it is dangerous. Ya know, I just pulled it out, a couple of the balls are on the bottom.

Ama

[edit on 4-10-2008 by amatrine]