Originally posted by ModernDystopia
A 10kt package set off in NYC would obliterate the city, take out parts of NJ and would also take out Staten Island and parts of Long Island. The fallout would be even worse.

I think it would just wipe out wall street.

Originally posted by MasterRegal
No, if a 10KT bomb detonates at Wall Street it takes out downtown New York and only downtown New York.

It would definitly be a down day for stocks.

Most ICBMs & Sub based devices have multiple (usually 3 - 5) warheads.
Also most are variable yield so they can be dialed in between 10 KT & 200 KT.

2 - 3 miles from explosions in that range, you might have a chance if your roof doesn't crush you while it's on fire. A basement is near useless as whatever is upstairs will now be down on top of you. Your best shot is if you are surrounded by concrete, especially facing directions of airports, harbors & other targets. A good ceramic floor above you could aid in heat dispersal too, though the tiles could very well be flying at you like a million ninja stars!

5 miles, likely short term survival, cuts out the ying yang and real possibility of bleeding to death from cuts. Burns could be 3rd degree over 90+ % depending on where you are, upstairs or down. Medium to heavy dose of radiation. Leukemia is in your future if you are lucky enough not to die in the following days after.

10 miles, cuts from window glass (at any yield) burns (20KT +) blunt force trauma (30KT+) moderate to severe burns, cuts (50+KT).

At 10 miles with a 200KT (average yield deployed), there would be nothing you could do really. In some way you are going to get a mild dose of rads, debris trauma, cuts, medium burns.

The only thing I can suggest is live 100+ miles from all airports, military assets, etc if you want 90% possibility of short to mid term survival. Other than that, pray you are directly under the blast.

Some other thoughts:

In most major centers with at least one military asset, there will be multiple strikes in different areas to effect the most damage. All cities with airports capable of supporting any type of jet are sure to be struck at least once, 2-3 times if its known for even medium military traffic.

Believe it or not, they will only be after infrastructure, so the densely populated areas in a WAR will not necessarily be targets unless they are near military / governmental assets if they are going with typical nukes. If you have 2 or 3 assets in an area, the initial warhead will be focused at the center point of all three and detonated anywhere from 1000 ft to 3000 ft, depending on your terrain. Air burst allows for more destruction in the form of two actual blast waves and a wider area covered. "death from above"

If it comes to WW3, though, I think we will see more neutron bombs than anything, so structures might be ok, just that life in the area is exterminated which means a really high atmospheric burst and no major blast wave to knock stuff over. The goal will then be to invade and take over intact assets.

Who knows!

In either case it's the initial radiation that you have to worry about, not physical damage. Those crushed in an instant by their homes suddenly bursting in on them will be the lucky ones. By the time they are on fire the debris would have likely knocked them unconscious and they would have crossed the rainbow bridge in a split second "WTF?". LOL.

[edit on 5-10-2008 by Atlantican]

Originally posted by Atlantican
Most ICBMs & Sub based devices have multiple (usually 3 - 5) warheads.
Also most are variable yield so they can be dialed in between 10 KT & 200 KT.

I think you mis-understood the scenareo.

2 or 3 low yield devices (10KT) placed at strategic locations is all that is needed to destroy the world economy.

The question is what are you're chances of surviving the intial blast and resulting fall-out.

The thread is titled nuclear EVENT survival chances NOT nuclear WAR survival chances.

[edit on 5-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

I forgot to add:

If it is a ground burst, where the device is actually on the ground or even a couple floors up, the blast isn't much of a worry beyond a mile but the fallout will be more devastating over a larger area as the blast wave doses everything a mile from ground zero and shoots most items up and away. Everything that is physically destroyed becomes either vapor or dust / ash and is carried with the winds until it falls to the ground again.

In either case, if you survive a blast you might want to stay absolutely still for at least a few days, if you can find sealed quarters within 10 minutes. A week to 2 weeks would be best before you start scavenging in an UNAFFECTED area. If you kick up dust and inhale it you are screwed.

A low yield 5- 10 KT would be the same, only a narrower diameter of immediate effects. 5kt - 5 or so city blocks would be hot ruins and then the fallout issue as stated in my last post.

1KT per city block is a good guide if you want to know the actual vaporization zone or area of certain near instant death. Multiply that by 5 for the lower risk effects / mild cuts / burns etc. Multiply that by 10 for near certain survival (if you aren't in the wind's path) with minor cuts etc.

With so many tens of thousands of nuclear warheads in the world, has anyone considered that one of these things could be launched "accidently" if someone thought the respective country was under attack?

It's happened before of course in the Cold War years, and I think in '95 when Yeltsin was close to launching a counter strike for what was later revealed as a Norwegian rocket launch.

Then there's India and Pakistan.

I'd say if anything, a nuclear launch would probably be a sudden event with limited time for planning, especially during a quickly deteriorating political situation.

Chances of survival? Hmm...