The Retail Industry

The Retail and Service industry are where most US and Canadian small business owners live.

I have been very curious to see what the experts had to say concerning the coming retail Christmas selling season as many in the retail industry rely on the holiday shopping season to post a profit.

Here is one outlook:

Celente -- who forecast the subprime mortgage financial crisis and the dollar's decline a year ago and gold's current rise in May -- told the newspaper the subprime mortgage meltdown was just the first "small, high-risk segment of the market" to collapse.

Derivative dealers, hedge funds, buyout firms and other market players will also unravel, he said.

Massive corporate losses, such as those recently posted by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM), will also be fairly common "for some time to come," he said.

He said he would not "be surprised if giants tumble to their deaths," Celente said.

The Panic of 2008 will lead to a lower U.S. standard of living, he said.

A result will be a drop in holiday spending a year from now, followed by a permanent end of the "retail holiday frenzy" that has driven the U.S. economy since the 1940s, he said.

As consumers see that we may need to weather a economic storm I see a very flat holiday shopping season for many retailers.

This will be another nail in the coffin as 2009 rolls in.

How do you see the coming Holiday Shopping season?

Will you spend more or less or nothing at all?

I have not yet decided.

[edit on 24-9-2008 by whiteraven]

Sorry, here is the link for the post above and another quote.

"We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

Most retailers have made thier Holiday purchases.

We used to make ours in late August for the Holiday season which, as we grew bigger. began to floorplan in June.

I am looking forward to how ATS users will spend this Christmas as this will me a micro look at the US and Canadian Holiday spending.

www.upi.com...

[edit on 24-9-2008 by whiteraven]

I think we can see some of the retail results today.

Stocks hurt by retailers
Major indexes fall as Best Buy warns, stoking new fears about recession.

Stocks hurt by retailers
Major indexes fall as Best Buy warns, stoking new fears about recession.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks fell Wednesday morning as a fresh bout of weakness from major retailers stoked fears that anemic consumer spending will push the economy into recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 1.6% in early trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index was also off 1.6% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 1.4%.

Stocks fell Tuesday, for the second session in a row, as investors largely overlooked a new government plan aimed at helping struggling homeowners.

also Best Buy

Best Buy: 'Most difficult climate we've ever seen'

No. 1 electronics retailer cuts profit forecast, blames continued weakness in consumer spending heading into critical holiday shopping period.
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See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close) By Parija B. Kavilanz, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 12, 2008: 9:13 AM ET

Retailers under pressure

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Best Buy, the No. 1 electronics retailer, cut its full-year profit forecast Wednesday, citing continued weakness in consumer spending that it says has been exacerbated by the "recent turmoil in the financial markets."

The company also said "uncertainty regarding future consumer spending" would limit its ability to project revenue for the critical holiday shopping season.

That's a huge problem since the November-December holiday shopping months typically account for 50% or more of retailers' annual profits and sales.

"In 42 years of retailing, we've never seen such difficult times for the consumer," Brian Dunn, president and chief operating officer of Best Buy, said in a statement. "People are making dramatic changes in how much they spend, and we're not immune from those forces."

I think they are playing the cards close and they are now wondering which stores to close.

money.cnn.com...


LINKS


money.cnn.com...

im buying survival gear for everyone and some toys for the kids but thats it

well, in the best case scenerio, where my company gives out better bonuses than they did last year, I will be spending less than I did last year....lot's less.

in the worse case...where they've lost all that precious bonus money in the stock market or whatever and there is none, well....
not a chance in hades of me spending much of anything, thank you!

I wouldn't count on a good holiday season for the retail stores....
with all the media frenzy about the economic problems, well, more and more are getting the message that things just aren't right, even if they haven't been adversely affected yet, by the time december comes, many, many more will probably be too scared to spend much.

or course, well, if the economy is going down anyways, and no one is paying their bills, well.......maybe some will figure that one last good binge courtesy of american express might be warrented? don't know.

[edit on 12-11-2008 by dawnstar]

A sad Christmas for many who have been "simplified"? (new term for fired)

I wonder if any GM employees will being investing in survival gear?

Sorry I don't have a link to the source but I heard on radio or TV that Canadians that were polled about this coming holiday shopping season were not as downbeat as you would expect. Most said the economy will NOT effect their purchasing and a smaller percentage said they WILL NOT purchase as mush as last year.

If I find the source I'll edit my post.Found it

news article

But Brent Houlden, leader of Deloitte's retail practice, expressed doubt Canadian consumers will be as frugal this holiday as they say. "We view these results positively and believe that Canadian retail sales this year will be higher than last year," he said in a statement.

[edit on 12-11-2008 by venividivici]

[edit on 12-11-2008 by venividivici]

Yes, Western Canada as well as the Newfoundland transplants in Alberta will all spend like a bat out of hell...no doubt.

The old gaurd of Ontario and Quebec are not so sure.


But lets see what the Globe and Mail has to say.....

www.theglobeandmail.com...

Shoppers feeling scroogey this year: survey

It will be a Christmas of scrimping and bargain hunting.

As the financial crisis deepens and uncertainty about the economy grows, many Canadians say they're going to significantly cut back their holiday spending compared with last year, according to a new survey by Deloitte & Touche, a financial advisory firm.

"This year, I think it will be very much a focus on making do with less," said Bruce Cran, president of the Consumers' Association of Canada.

About 40 per cent of those surveyed said they plan to reduce what they spend this holiday season, compared with just 25 per cent who said that last year. People living in Vancouver and Toronto were more likely than other Canadians to report plans to cut back, with 45 and 46 per cent of those surveyed saying they will reduce their holiday spending.

You all better spend money in the retail industry this Christmas season! My life depends on it!!!

reply to post by venividivici


Hey...that article is from Nanaimo Daily News...now thats funny.

All joking aside your link provides a good view of how/why a media source can bend the news.