posted on Sep, 10 2008 @ 12:24 AM
I expect to see Obama take a rise in the polls.
Right now, the media is running through their talking points on him, looking for something that resonates with their focus groups. Remember, there's
still 50 days to election. Long enought that the "front runner" will change one more time, maybe twice before going to the polls.
If I were "Rove-ing" for the Obama campaign, I'd advise against playing the race card at all. A lot of whites can imagine voting for him as
long as he seems sort of raceless and unemotional.
He succeeds as long as he is channeling "Mr. Spock."
When his facade slips, he loses his veneer of positivism, and starts to stutter. Same with playing the "race card." Reluctant democrats (white
males over 50) will waver if he comes off as sounding like a victim or representative of any particular minority.
He also sucks at gettting small-town support. And his comments about rural Alaska have not helped at all.
I watched Hillary take the Texas primary away from him, which should have been Obama's by virtue of his minority status. But he stuck to speaking in
urban centers like Dallas and Houston, where he already had support. Bill Clinton stumped in small cities like Tyler and Amarillo, which carried the
whole state for Hillary.
Obama's minority status, and Bidens Union credentials, are big negatives in ag states where the pollsters never interview anyone in small towns. Get
set to watch the swing states with rural populations (basically all of them but florida) veer off toward McCain at the last minute.
Remeber, you read it here first.