Economy in Recession? You Betcha!

So I saw a thread on here mentioning that the recession is liberal lies?


Really?


What's this I see in the news today?
Jobless rate soars to 6.1%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate soared to a nearly five-year high in August, topping 6%, as employers trimmed jobs for the eighth straight month, according to the latest government reading Friday that came in weaker than forecasts.

The big surprise in the report was that the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, the highest level since September 2003. That's up from the 5.7% rate in July and 4.7% a year ago. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the rate would remain unchanged from the July reading.

There was a net loss of 84,000 jobs in August, according to the Labor Department, compared to a revised reading of a 60,000 job loss in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 75,000 jobs.

With the August report, the U.S. economy has now lost 605,000 jobs so far this year.

And this a day after the Stock market lost another 345 points.

So how are these liberal lies?

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[edit on 5/9/2008 by Mirthful Me]

Quazga, what the hell are you talking about? Ask Jamie83 and the rest of the Republican handmaidens. They'll set you straight. It's a liberal conspiracy to spread these kinds of lies. Haven't you heard? We're all making it up. It's in our heads. Repeat after me "It's all in our heads... it's all in our heads..."

Now be a good boy and go vote for McCain.

The Dow Jones is down 139.35 points right now. NYSE down 139 points. You would think with gas prices falling that the stocks would be doing better. I don't know what to think anymore. I guess its the unemployment rate like you said and the housing crises.

I haven't read the thread you are referring to but based on the title I think the answer is very simple.

"Recession" in terms of economics has a very definite definition and is based on a formula.

Currently, our economy does NOT fit the criteria for a 'recession'.

Times are tough, no doubt. There is a slow-down, no question. But we are NOT in a 'recession'.

Jemison

I am trying to stay positive about the whole Russia situation, but its not looking to good. Russia said that any attempt to help Georgia would be a declaration of war. We just gave them a billion dollars in aid. That worries me.

It's amazing that the nation has hit such hard times with 94% employment. Why would anyone think that liberals are liars and scaremongers. At 94% employment people should be rioting for food and protesting in the streets shouldn't they? Why would liberals lie about the economy? What would they have to gain by it?

Originally posted by Jemison
I haven't read the thread you are referring to but based on the title I think the answer is very simple.

"Recession" in terms of economics has a very definite definition and is based on a formula.

Currently, our economy does NOT fit the criteria for a 'recession'.

Times are tough, no doubt. There is a slow-down, no question. But we are NOT in a 'recession'.

Jemison

Wow.. you are obvsiously not watching are you?

So this from the WSJ of all places

Economists React: Jobs Report 'Screams Recession'

Oh yeah and thisHow bad will the Recession get?

And wait... it's GLOBAL
Euro slips on Recession fears

And

German output slump fuels Eurozone Recession fears


So it looks like the WSJ, a conservative rag, says that the jobs report SCREAMS RECESSION. All the while you are screaming that we are not in one.

Go figure...

Do you think that a lot of these job loss could be due to the high cost of gas?

A lot of businesses depend on massive transportation to get their products, services, and people from point A to Point B. I am sure it is costing them a lot.

I do think we are in a recession. Good post Quaz.


By the way, playing the blame game isn't going to help anybody.

Personally, I think both parties are to blame for basically doing nothing for the last two years.

Jam, I agree that the economy is pretty much beyond the political event horizon.

It does no good to blame one side or the other on the economy at large. Although, you might see me do that when someone else is blaming my candidate.

What I think it really boils down to, as the economy intersects politics, is how each party reacts to it. Does a party deny the evidence? Early on, one might say this is even a positive tactic, as perception creates reality. But a recession is an inevitible process, like a tide. So eventually one has to say that..

"Yep, we are in a recession because we just went through a HUGE growth spurt, which went further than it realistically should, so now we will recede until we reach reality. The recession will also go a bit deeper than reality, almost to the degree that the bull market went past reality. Here is how we are going to deal with it currently, and here is what we will do to ensure that our growth in the future doesn't outpace reality"


We can't blame either party for the mess, as the constituents of both parties are accomplices, but we should definititely push our parties to respond rationally.


Oh and to your point about gas. I think it is a mixture of housing crises, credit crises, high gas prices, inflation, and a whole crapstorm of issues to be honest.

[edit on 5-9-2008 by Quazga]

Mod Note: Do Not Modify Staff Edits.

[edit on 5/9/2008 by Mirthful Me]

The Dow was down over 300 points yesterday and no one has said a thing. Now all the other world markets are headed the same way. It's like the Twilight Zone. So were the down markets spurred by a disappointing GOP Convention?

www.marketwatch.com...

Has the stock market already voted by absentee ballot in this November's presidential race? It may very well be in the process of doing just that.

And a big clue as to how it is voting is provided by Thursday's dismal stock market, in which the Dow Jones Industrial fell by 345 points. For the still-young month of September, the Dow is now down 3.1%.
This points to an increased likelihood that the Democrats will reclaim the presidency in November's election.

The reason I can even attempt to draw these conclusions from the stock market's recent behavior is an analysis conducted by Ned Davis Research, an institutional research firm based in Venice, Fla.

[edit on 5/9/2008 by kosmicjack]

reply to post by Quazga


Much of it has to do with how you want to measure a recession. The historical definition looks at GDP and infers that you must have consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I think this way of measuring produces a false result, as it discounts the effects of inflation.

I would prefer to look at the volume of good sold regardless of price. Using this measure we have most likely been in a recession for at least 3 quarters. If prices (inflation) are up 5% and GDP rises 3%, then the volume of goods sold is down 2%. Many people think inflation was really running at 10%+ rate since basic needs prices(food, rent, energy) went up more than prices as a whole. That would mean the volume of goods sold was actually down 7%. This is scary territory and if continued would lead to a depression- "prolonged depressed growth".

The good news is that commodity prices are crashing, and that is what drove much of the inflation. Going forward this and the fact that demand has fallen so steeply, should mean that we see a significant drop in prices or at least a halt to their increases. Ultimately that will lead to higher demand and sales volumes.

As demand grows and the economy stablizes things should start taking on a more optimistic slant. As people feel more confident economic activity will grow further and further. Eventually everyone will be feeling like it is 1999-2000 all over again. And it will be, because once again the economy will overheat, bubbles will burst and we will go back to slower or negative growth.

This is called the economc cycle or how the elite take all the money from the poor and middle classes. Remember this the next time you feel like everything is great and is only going to get better. This means the next crash is close at hand. Take appropriate measures. Too late to act on this one.

reply to post by kosmicjack


Jesus was a leader who endured pain and suffering and put other's above himself. Sound like anyone you know, like McCain who was also tortured? He (Jesus) was (and is) a king who is higher than a governor. Judas however was a political hack, who cared about money and power. Maybe Judas is what Obama has more in common with that not.

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


Great POST!

By the way, for the benefit of us all, could you go further into what commodities are crashing?

Thanks!

So it looks like the WSJ, a conservative rag, says that the jobs report SCREAMS RECESSION. All the while you are screaming that we are not in one.

Again, 'recession' has a definition and must fit specific criteria.

Yes, it FEELS like a recession, I'm not arguing that.

I believe that in order to qualify for a recession, things have to be at a certain period for at least 2 financial quarters, but I'll have to look that up.

Think of it as someone who is wondering if they are pregnant. Maybe their period is late and they feel changes in their body that lead them to believe they are pregnant, but unless they get a positive on their pregnancy test, it doesn't mean that they ARE pregnant.

Not the best of examples, sorry.

Jemison

[EDIT: Yep you heard it here first boys and girls... don't quote 15 lines.. thats Excessive! WTF? Could someone please tell me in discreet details what EXCESSIVE QUOTING is? Sounds to me like maybe ATS is having a hard time paying for it's bandwidth.. so now 15 lines is excessive.]

You see though, a recession is inevitable. If this isn't the recession, then I am really scared to think what might be the recession.

And you have to remember that most all economists are now saying "Yep we are in a recession that doesn't fit the normal model"

Here's an analogy for ya... (in good sporting manner)

A few years back I got Chickenpox... Most Doctors , in the early stages,wouldn't admit that I indeed had Chickenpox. The reason? It looked like chickenpox, felt like chickenpox, and would even be more serious to me as an adult. However, since I had chickenpox as a child, this didn't fit in the model, and thus 3 doctors claimed it was simply something else which they had no idea what that might be.

Finally I found a 4th doctor. She asked "Has your child recently been vaccinated for CP?" To which I answerd yes. She then said "I'm seeing this more and more, and the reason why, I believe is because they are vaccinating children with a completely different strain from what most of us had when we were young".

Yep.. I had ChickenPox.. for the SECOND time.

In much the same way, those who say "this doesn't fit in the model" Are risking the health of the patient simply because not every single element which they expect to see is there... yet.


Thankfully, the number of economists who think that we are not in a recession has sunk to an alltime low.





[edit on 5-9-2008 by Quazga]

[edit on 5-9-2008 by Quazga]

I guess some people deny depending on how they define recession. It is debatable even among economist.

As a general rule, the economy is in recession when it shows two consecutive quarters of contraction

source


This hasn't happened yet.

this algorithm indicates that the data through June 2008 do not yet exceed the recession threshold, and will do so only if things get much worse.

www.nber.org...

I can see where some will deny and some won't.

reply to post by jam321


Read my post right above yours...

I had to go to 4 doctors before I could find one that wasn't so caught up in the acadmeic model.

All the others knew only the academic model and were mistaking the map for the territory.

The 4th doctor actually treated the sick patient even though the model stated that the patient wasn't ill.

I agree that from an academic persptive it's debateable as me having Chickenpox twice. Although the fact remains... I did indeed have chickenpox.

[edit on 5-9-2008 by Quazga]

reply to post by Quazga


Most all of these have fallen. This list is the Rogers commodity index.

Crude Oil 21.00%
IPE Brent 14.00%
Wheat 7.00%
Aluminum 4.00%
Copper 4.00%
Corn 4.75%
Heating Oil 1.80%
IPE Gasoil 1.20%
RBOB Gasoline 3.00%
Natural Gas 3.00%
Cotton 4.05%
Soybeans 3.25%
Gold 3.00%
Live Cattle 2.00%
Coffee 2.00%
Zinc 2.00%
Silver 2.00%
Lead 2.00%
Rice 0.50%
Soybean Oil 2.00%
Platinum 1.80%
Lean Hogs 1.00%
Sugar 2.00%
Azuki Beans 0.25%
Cocoa 1.00%
Nickel 1.00%
Tin 1.00%
Greasy Wool 0.25%
Rubber 1.00%
Lumber 1.00%
Barley 0.27%
Canola 0.67%
Orange Juice 0.66%
Oats 0.50%
Palladium 0.30%
Soybean Meal 0.75%

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


Thanks for the update!

In much the same way, those who say "this doesn't fit in the model" Are risking the health of the patient simply because not every single element which they expect to see is there... yet.

Your example was MUCH better than mine so thanks for posting it!

The title of your thread is stating that we ARE in a recession and in your original post you asked why there was another thread stating that the 'recession' was more liberal lies ...

I knew there was a formula for a recession so my posts were simply trying to point out why people may feel that screaming 'recession' could be considered 'liberal lies'.

I am glad to see that there are people responding that know the definiton of 'recession' and that others, are pointing out that while this may not fit the criteria, just like your example showed, there are exceptions to every rule and perhaps we are in economic times that might be that exception.

As for your chicken pox, wow. Sorry you had to go throught that twice!!! My twin daughters actually contracted chicken pox FROM the vaccination and it was a highly unpleasant experience for the entire family. I seem to recall that it meant a lot of extra paperwork for the Pediatrician as well. She had to fill out all sorts of reports to send to the CDC - I guess so that they could make sure that it wasn't a 'bad batch' of the vaccine since both girls were affected. Final results showed that it wasn't a bad batch, they were just part of the 'rare' side effects and because they are identical twins, that was why their bodies both reacted to it.

Jemison