RESULTS from Experiment in Alt. Methods of EQ Prediction

reply to post by space cadet


space cadet, you have a u2u.

I'm thinking something >6.0 in the Oceania region and/or S. Pacific.

Okay I have a few successful predictions to log. My apologies for the delay in getting these posted but things have been rather busy recently.

The first relates to this post from 4 June 2008, specifically the statement:

Edit to add: And yes, I agree that a mag 6 -plus is due within 12 to 24 hours. Not so sure on where though. Japan is possible but I'm thinking more of where the Philippines plate meets the Eurasian plate. That region at least.

[edit on 4-6-2008 by JustMike]

Confirmation of two hits in the Philippines Plate region can be found in my post of 6 June.

Unfortunately I did not save the data or map pages for these events. At that time I saw no need. Since then we have learned that saving this data may be useful…

Further, in the 6 June post I said:

While I was expecting a quake in the Philippines plate region within this time window, I thought it would be around a magnitude 6.0, so it's possible there will be another very close to this small plate's location within a day -- but I'm not speaking of an aftershock in the same place, I mean a fresh quake on a different part of the fault.

This prediction was confirmed on June 7 and this time I have the data page saved:



The next set of predictions is more recent. Here is my original post from 12 June 2008. The relevant part which relates to the following two hits is:

The first prediction is for a quake in the vicinity of the Kuril Islands, but more likely at the north-eastern end. Magnitude I feel will be 5.5 or larger. The second is off the west coast of Nth America. I feel most strongly about off the coast of Oregon, but not so strongly that it will be directly west of Eugene as in my previous prediction. Magnitude for this one may not be so great but I would expect over 4.0 on this occasion. Could actually be two or three close together there, both in location and time.

A quake occurred in the NE part of the Kuril Islands on 13 June, about 8 hours after I posted my prediction. Here is the data page from USGS:



Here is the link to the above page but as is normal, this will drop off the system seven days after the event date.

The final confirmed prediction in this (lonnng!!) post relates to a quake off the coast of Oregon. Here is the link to the USGS page for mag 4.9 off the coast of Oregon on 14 June 2008.

As this page will also drop off the lists after a week, here is a screen shot of the data page:



Discussion of why my predictions (when correct) are accurate for region and time frame, but often one magnitude below what I expected, can be found here. In this post I also said:

Edit: Btw, taking my predictions in order I suppose on past results it would suggest the off-coast Oregon quake is next in line. But like I said it won't be a very big one by the feel of it.

[edit on 13-6-2008 by JustMike]

The above result confirms this prediction. Please note: in case any argument is raised that my final comment (added as an edit) in the above post was made after the quake struck, it was in fact posted more than 8 hours before it occurred. Although the quake happened on the evening of Friday 13 June (local time US Pacific), my time zone is UTC plus 2 hours, so at the quake's UTC of 6:47 a.m. Saturday 14 June, it was 8:47 a.m on Saturday here. Senior Admin in ATS can confirm I am in the Czech Republic. Just my IP tells them that...Besides, they needed my home address to send me an ATS T-shirt some months ago. (The "5/11" one )

Well, I think that gets things all up to date and hopefully clears up any doubts that might arise. Bye for now,

Mike

I'm beginning to notice that most of mine are coming in around 24 hours after I note the precursor.

posted on 6/14/08 @ 06:49 PM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:

I am still feeling that something very big is going to happen, possibly in the Pacific. I keep thinking about SoCal and Mexico, but I couldn't tell you why. Also, I noticed there have been a couple incidents of whale beachings in the past week.
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Mexico, offshore, 4.2, 6/15

Back in a post on June 16 I predicted a quake in the SF Bay region. There was a mag 4.0 quake in central California on June 19. The quake occurred within about 0.8 degrees (lat. and long.) from the predicted location, on a fault line that actually runs up through the bay, was within the expected magnitude and on the outer limits of the time frame I stated. After posting the details and asking for opinions in this post on the Predictions thread, responses were positive so I am claiming it as a hit. (The aforementioned post also contains a link to the actual prediction post of June 16.)

EDIT to add: The USGS has now downgraded this quake from mag 4.0 to mag 3.8. All other details appear to be the same so I shall leave the posted data sheet in place.

The USGS data page link will drop off the system after 7 days, as will the marker on their maps, so for the sake of preserving data I am posting the map and data pages here:






Note: Back in this post on 12 June I predicted a quake for the Iberian Peninsula and stated

I cannot give anything much on magnitude but it would have to be enough to get on the main maps so that would likely mean around 4.5 or greater.

As far as I have been able to determine, no quake of significance occurred within the stated region by 16 June so I am declaring this prediction a no hit.

[edit on 21/6/08 by JustMike]

Kattraxx posted on 6/21/08 @ 09:42 AM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by JustMike
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There was that 4.5 in the Tanzania region in Africa... was that before your prediction? I'm glad the EQ hit south of the SF bay area and that it was not large.

I will predict an EQ in Peru, Brazil or Columbia, probably at least 5.0, maybe higher, as I've had this pain for 3 days now. And also the Domino Islands-- getting that precursor as well, but then they pretty much shake all the time. I haven't really had time this week to focus on earthquakes-- actually, that's been kinda nice.
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Hit: 6/22, 5.6 Solomon Island

Magnitude 5.6 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2008 June 22 07:22:06 UTC

Solomon 5.6

Magnitude 5.2 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2008 June 22 13:15:34 UTC

Solomon, 5.2




[edit on 6/22/08 by kattraxx]

Kattraxx posted on 6/15/08 @ 08:42 AM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:

I had S. America percursors during the night, a few times, ouch, both left and right side-- that usually means Peru, Chile, Brazil, Ecuador.
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Magnitude 4.6 - MAULE, CHILE
2008 June 21 07:40:39 UTC

Chile, 4.6

Kattraxx posted on 6/13/08 @ 11:31 PM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by space cadet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------space cadet, you have a u2u.

I'm thinking something >6.0 in the Oceania region and/or S. Pacific.
============================

Magnitude 5.5 - HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
2008 June 18 13:13:08 UTC

5.5, not >6.0, but close

Kattraxx posted on 6/24/08 @ 10:19 PM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by kattraxx

Prediction: 6/24: Alaska, >6.0 or in water or of volcanic origin
EQ: Alaska 4.1, 6/25, in water

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Kattraxx posted on 6/25/08 @ 06:49 PM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by kattraxx

Still waiting on Columbia, first choice... Brazil or Peru, second choice....

Magnitude 5.2 - CENTRAL PERU
2008 June 26 00:06:41 UTC
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Kattraxx posted on 6/26/08 @ 12:37 PM single this post edit"quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by kattraxx

I see Japan had a +5.0 today. I felt Japan this morning, but didn't think it was over a 4.0. I'm still getting Japan, so possibly a larger mag than today's coming still.

Another in Japan today, not a larger mag though, but over 4.0 and within 24 hours.

Magnitude 4.7 - EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
2008 June 26 14:34:05 UTC
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Kattraxx posted on 6/26/08 @ 02:59 PM single this post edit"quote"REPLY TO:
reply to post by kattraxx

While I'm posting, I'll go ahead and mention a couple precursors for the Sierras/Wasatch/New Madrid regions... and the Domino Islands.

Magnitude 6.5 - TONGA, Domino Islands
2008 June 26 21:19:13 UTC
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ON wednesday july 10th i posted


www.abovetopsecret.com...


and then this happened

Magnitude 4.8 - puerto rico region