The realities of Bugging out..

I hear people all the time talking about "bugging out", and how they plan to go to some safe, isolated location. Does anyone truly believe such a place exists?

If you know about it, you can bet a hundred or more other people do as well. What happens when you made the long and arduous trek there, and discover it's already occupied by a dozen people who had the same idea? Will you move on, fight, or try to co-habitate peacefully with them? How long do you think civilized behavior will prevail once people's supplies start running out?

Barring all that, First you have to get there. I doubt anyone will be able to jump in their car or truck and drive there without incident. People will jam the roads up with disable vehicles, roadblocks will be everywhere, road pirates will be out en mass, and many organized communities will probably refuse you entry.

Most of these people have probably never even tried to walk a couple of miles with a fully-loaded back pack. It sounds easy sitting in a computer chair, but in reality it's much more difficult. If you're overweight, arthritic, elderly, etc. your chances of successfully bugging out decrease exponentially.

Your movement is slowed down, and you'll probably be more tired, hungry, and less alert than you ever have been before. How does a person successfully carry a heavy pack, fire a gun, and try to run all at the same time?

Travelling in heavily armed groups is another idea, but it has disadvantages as well. It's hard to stealthfully move about in a large group. You need more food, water, and ammo, and now you have others to look out for as well. You're only as fast and strong as your weakest team member. If this person happens to be a child or family member, are you willing to sacrifice them if need be for the survival of the group?

How many people are capable of successfully navigating themselves from point A to point B without the assistance of road signs, a compass, or a GPS unit? Compasses are handy, but you actually have to know how to use one for it to be of any real value.





[edit on 2/16/08 by LLoyd45]

I expect to hunker down temporarily if I'm able and thats a huge if. I'm convinced that what we face will be carried out with a remarkable degree of precision, albeit chaotic by our own reactions. That's why they are working so feverishly to profile everyone. That chaos should buy me time if I can handle it right. If I can't, I'm sunk no matter whether I stay or go. I believe that ones best chances for the long haul is to not be where you're expected to be and become expert at avoiding detection. When it comes down to that you'll depend on what you know rather than what you have. All these material preparations will most likely only serve to soften the blow of the transition. Just as the trails West were littered with discarded "things" when the pioneers migrated that way, we'll repeat their learning experience. Priorities will change, and fast. That's why the greatest preparation we can make is to learn all that we can. Learn it now while there's time and the information is out there. It already seems that the more useful a bit of information is, the more likely it is to be pulled from the net. That's no coincidence. The war is on. Right now it's an information war that is poised to escalate without notice. My pack may start out too heavy but it will lighten up as necessary.

Great topic Lloyd. You nailed it.

I agree with you, Lloyd. It's the main reason that I'm an advocate of "hunker down" over bugging out, unless you are being specifically targeted by authorities, or in the path of what looks like eminent ruin.

People who bug out are running away from a garage full of hand tools, a medicine cabinet full of healthcare, and most importantly, the social network that might feed you and watch while you sleep.

And trading all that for a bunch of unknown variables, to be a stranger in a strange land.

Another beef is that many people pick wilderness as a "refuge." While there are posters here at ATS that I believe are completely capable as snake-eaters, I think there will be massive "idiot casualties" out in the wilderness in the first 9 days after situation x. With today's global civilization, most of the undeveloped regions are that way for a reason: they lack useful resources.

A few of our resident snake-eaters will prosper, but for the rest of us, you're better off staying close to the pantry, the gun locker, and your buddies on the volunteer fire department.

What sort of situation are we talking about? The whys and wherefores of the event have more of an effect on what I would do than anything else.

Originally posted by LLoyd45
I hear people all the time talking about "bugging out", and how they plan to go to some safe, isolated location. Does anyone truly believe such a place exists?

There are a few old mines in the Eastern Sierras of the United States near good, clean water sources that would probably be a good place to hole up. Plenty of food, water, storage facilities, and far enough away from people to keep out the looky-loos.

Other than that, almost all of the really good (but expensive) escape plans involve moving to the Southern Hemisphere. In the event of large scale radiation or bacteriological infection, the best place to go is somewhere the Jet Stream isn't constantly dosing you with new junk. That means heading South. Way South. The way a lot of the weather works, the northern and southern hemispheres of the planet are pretty well isolated from each other.

Any really good plan involves getting some relatively cheap land (again, with the basic food, water, etc,) and a reasonably reliable way to get there.

Yes, it is going to be tough awakening for many who thought they were prepared.

I used to believe that bugging out was the way to go too, but after placing a few trail cameras at my "secret" location, I found out it wasn't so secret after all. It was remote, near a large body of water, had lots of trees, plentiful game and vegetation, etc. In other words, the perfect refuge.

Unfortunately it was also a popular hunting and fishing spot for many of the locals as well. Now I see the error of my ways. I should have reconned it thoroughly before wasting my hard earned cash. In this case, I'm still able to live and learn from my mistake. Now I think I'll just work on a underground shelter as a fallback position, thus elimination long treks, difficult portering of supplies and equipment, etc. Where better to hide than under their noses?

Originally posted by LLoyd45

I used to believe that bugging out was the way to go ...

there was a movie back in the 1970's
where Charleston Heston made his deserted Midtown NYC +3 storey
apartment building into a defensive, fortification/bunker.
While all around him the people went Feral or had some radiation disease
or some plague of some kind... the object lesson was that in the midst of mahem and lawlessness with everyone trying to rip off one's stash,
it's OK to hunker down, and create your own Custom Refuge

he availed himself of motion sensors since he was without other survivors to help with security, is just one example of utilizing things readily available, but he did have to foreage the city for fuel in the Day, to keep the generators working at the nighttime...
anyhow, look up the survival in the city theme, in the movie site

reply to post by St Udio


The The Omega Man was the name of the flick. It was and still is one of my all-time favorites.

Most survivalists that I know and have met share a basic concept of how they will survive. There are a few creative varieties to the same theme but all of them are flawed. Here's the scenario:
1) Anarchy hits. By whatever definition your version of anarchy entails-the economy collapses and we enter a worse depression than our predecessors; giant meteors hit the earth and ecological disaster ensues bringing widespread famine, disease and eventual global chaos; surprise! the cold war wasn't really over and the Russians have just landed in Hometown, USA sparking a world-wide nuclear holocaust. You get the idea.
2) You pack up the babies, grab the ol' lady and everyone goes running to the four-wheel drive pickup parked in the driveway to race down the nearest convenient highway to the nearest convenient hills.
3) You "live off the land" until anarchy subsides.
4) You clairavoyantly know when anarchy is over, return to your hometown a hero and leader among all the ravaged masses that didn't have the good sense to listen to you and pick up your life where you left off before anarchy hit.

I'm often amazed (and amused) by how many otherwise intelligent people see nothing wrong with that plan. Let's examine it a little more closely. Will you have a special premonition that allows you insight as to WHEN anarchy is going to hit? Even Jesus Christ said He didn't know the hour but YOU'RE going to know? If anarchy becomes immediately obvious to anyone with even one eye open do you honestly think you'll make it to your 4WD and down the street unscathed? Will your pickup be IN the driveway at the necessary moment? Finally take the car to the shop to get that trannie fixed and darned if anarchy doesn't hit! What're the odds? Let your brother borrow the truck to move out of his apartment and boom! Anarchy! Let's assume you're not having that bad of a hair day and the truck is fine and in the drive at the crucial moment. Got a full tank of gas? Oops. Alright, I'll cut you some slack. Truck's fine, in the drive and has a full tank of gas. How far can you get on a tank of gas? You dash out into traffic-all 260 million people just as scared as you are and trying to get the hell outa Dodge. Depending on wheter you live in a big city or a small town, I'd give you a max of 20 miles before running into a major problem. You're stuck in a pileup of drivers that all have the same idea as you and the rogue parasites in the smoking jalopy next to you see that you have a good vehicle with a backend full of supplies they don't have. You promptly get a bullet through the temple, yanked out of the drivers' side, your family gets booted out onto the road (if they're lucky) and there ends all your years of garage sailing for just the right camping gear.
You've planned ahead for that contingency? Got your significant other armed with a 12 gauge ready to blast anyone that even looks at you cross-eyed? Can your S.O. hold their muc in an armed confrontation? Can they pull the trigger in a kill or be killed situation? Many veterans admit (and statistics show) that killing another human being is just not in us to do. At least not easily and not without accompanying psychological trauma that's yours to keep as a souvenir for the rest of your life. Even if you and everyone in your group can kill and to hell with the guilt and regret, you can't just shooot your way through that pile up of stalled or wrecked cars. Now you're on foot.
By the way, was everyone in your group conveniently located at the dinner table when anarchy hit? It could come when you're at work, kids are at school or summer camp or your odious ex-spouse on their weekend to have the kids. Did you already have everything you think you'll need packed? Did you have to stomp around the house searching for the flashlight? Was your gear in a state of good repair?
Let's say the gods smile upon you and, despite all odds contrary to probability, you actually get to "the hills" or whatever retreat you've planned and are now going to start living off the land. Has anyone in your group ever tried actually "living off the land"? It's been my experience that the land is not that generous. It can be insufferably hot in the summer, lethally cold in the winter, and pneumonia producing inbetween. That's just the weather. There are predators that can hunt those deer better than you. Eat them first. They're in competition for your food supply. That includes owls, cats of all sizes and dogs. Then there are insects: blood-sucking vectors of death and disease. Is everyone in your group immunized? There's a vaccine against rabies that would be wise to get if you're going to live amongst wild creatures.
You live off the land for, say, 6 months. Luckily no one in your group dies from predator attack, malaria-carrying mosquito bites, incorrect mushroom identification, major infection from a minor scratch, starvation, hyperthermia, hypothermia, dehydration, etc. You're all 20 pounds thinner but none the worse for wear. You're tired, hungry, dirty, depressed and would give your left arm for a cold beer or even a roll of toilet paper. Forgot about that poison sumac, didn't ya? You wind your way back to civilization only to find it's gone. It WAS anarchy, after all. Maybe your old neighborhood still stands but is now inhabited by strangers. Any number of "what-ifs" could arise pre or post chaos and you can't possibly prepare for all of them or even a goodly number of them.
You can't show up at your board meeting tomorrow morning wearing a flak jacket and gas mask or an uzi strapped to your thigh. Being a survivalist means rolling with the flow; adapting to whatever changes you must face.
You either have military type training or you don't If you have military training and didn't serve in operation Desert Storm, then you're undoubtedly middle-aged, probably overweight and not in great shape. No problem. Weight and shape are fixable. Being middle-aged is not necessarily a handicap. It may even be an asset. If you're like me, you're too tired to sow any more wild oats. Having a stable life prevents all kinds of trouble. Being just another drone means you keep a low profile. That's important for survival. So, rule #1 is: Keep your mouth shut! Don't tell everyone you know (or anyone you know) that you have guns, ammo, stockpiles of food, etc. News like that just makes you a target from every source. You'll be targeted by alphabet groups of government to see if you're a subversive, drug runner, arms dealer, terrorist or some other type of competitor with our government officers. You don't need that kind of attention. Being vocal about your beliefs doesn't convert or enlighten anyone. It just lets your neighbors know that when the feces hits the fan YOU will have all they need or want in your house. /Even if you successfully fend off the roaming hoardes of marauders intent on robbing you, it will probably be at the undesirable cost of having to shoot them all. Even if you would just love an excuse to shoot all your neighbors (and their little dogs, too), you'd certainly bring excessive amounts of unwanted attention upon yourself.
You may have learned in the military how to shoot, navigate, snare and hunt but what about your wife and kids? Can any of then skin a rabbit, set traps, recognize the business end of a weapon or even find their backsides with a search warrant? Hevy load to carry all by yourself. Better teach them now if you have any training at all in any field whatsoever. If you have no combat/survival training and only know how to fix cars-teach your family how to fix cars. And GET trained. You don't even need world-wide anarchy to hit for some skills to be useful.

You could have a personal anarchy situation and call that training into use. Say you and your wife are going out to dinner and suffer the misfortune of getting a flat tire. You pull over to the side of the road, drag your overdressed self out of the car and begin the unpleasant task of changing the tire. Somebody pulls up behind you and you naively assume it's some good Samaritan come to offer assistance. Hopefully, you're right. But if you're wrong and it is instead some crank-sucking opportunist just pausing from a night of robbing liquors stores to pick off some easier prey, you may have to "engage the enemy". Your wife could finish changing the tire and run over the bastards if you're having a tough time getting your opponent to understand the meaning of the word "NO!" Or you have to work out of town this weekend-just the wife and kids at home. All YOUR military training won't save them when the gang bangers kick in the door and decide to rape your wife, steal your guns and butcher your kids. Everyone in your group needs training. What a surprise to the gang bangers if 10-year old Susie lands a round house kick to the bad guys jaw while "the little woman" pulls her .380 and plants a few well-placed rounds on the SHPOS.
The needs of a military are not the needs of a family group. The military needs to "take ground", rack up casualties/kills, recover losses, demoralize the enemy and so on. Your family or small group just needs to stay hidden and keep quiet. All you MUST do is survive. The military has "acceptable losses". Is 20% of your family an acceptable loss? The military can take heavy casualties and keep going, evac their wounded to a hospital, draft more soldiers to fill their needs. You have no such options. Where will you find the heart to keep going if your family suffers heavy (or any) casualties? The military finds it necessary to "take a hill" or some other tactically strategic piece of ground. You can just leave. There are millions and millions of acres of land in this country. Why fight to the death for an inch of it? Ragnar Benson mentions the undesirability of becoming a "fugitive" in a crisis/survival situation. I agree but you still need to be instantly mobile and not so stubbornly attached to a particular piece of ground that you'd lost sight of the primary objective-surviving-to keep it. The military has (or acts like it has) a bottomless pit of taxpayer dollars to fund all its needs. You do not. More than likely you'll wind up with what you can carry on your back with replenishment of supplies coming only at great personal risk to your group. When the military has a group that's been fighting long enough, is tired, overrun or has served their time, they can ship in a fresh bunch of cannon fodder and tuck the weary bunch into bed back at the base. If you engage the enemy or the enemy engages you, you'll surely fight til there's no one left. If you're pursued for weeks (or even hours) and grow weary, you can't just cry "Kings X" and expect to be helo'd home. You'll just have to keep going until you drop or can arrange for a reversal in your scenario. A strapping 20-year old lad may be able to sling an 80# pack over his shoulder, trudge all night through the mud and still do fairly well in the morning round of combat. I doubt you or your family can do so well. The entire comparison between a military group and your group is in no way intended to disparage those who served in the armed forces. Much of what I have learned over the years has been via a Vet. God bless them one and all. It is merely to point out the disparity between a military's needs, options, and manpower, etc. and your own. You are not a military group, nor can you afford to think or act like one.
Rule number 2: Get Real! Assess the needs, strengths, limitations, assets and liabilities of your group and make necessary adjustments to insure your groups survival. Be honest with yourself and with each other. No need to be cruel.
At the country club or bowling alley you probably brag that your kid is the smartest kid alive but in a survival situation you may find yourself wondering if you sired (or gave birth to) the missing link. Self discipline is parmount. Notice I said "self" discipline not despotic tyranny. If you set yourself up as a little Caesar your group may unite to bring you down, preferring to take their chances with "the enemy" rather than put up with such abuse. After all, if anarchy hits, your loved ones can stay home and be slaves. Why should they subject themselves to the rigors of a harsh environment to get no better treatment than slaves? Be kind to one another-you're all you've got.
Now we come to the heart of every survivalists wet dream: the survival retreat. You may think that choice of weapons is of primary concern (and it is) but even the women, children and family pet will have an opinion or preference regarding the retreat. Make your list of pros and cons for where to build, how big to build, whether to buy or lease land, how much to stockpile, what to stockpile, who to bring/invite, who to leave out or throw out, etc. Once you've resolved the above considerations-tear up your list and use it line your bird cage. All the above-mentioned considerations assume you need or should desire a stationary shelter. Rule #3: Never assume anything.
If you were going to survive in a fixed location with stockpiles of needed supplies why did you ever jump in the pickup and leave your house? You are not considered a "survivalist" if you die of an acute (or chronic) case of nest-builders syndrome. David Koresch had quite a nice retreat. Good location, well-stocked, manned and gunned. All he lacked was a big aerial target on the roof that read, "drop explosive here." No matter. The government, in a heroic show of "saving the children", killed the children by figuring out exactly where to place their combustible gases. Koresch violated rule #3 by assuming he was dealing with a reasonable entity that would not murder him on national TV. Remember that no piece of ground is worth your life. If your position (ie: your safety) is compromised-get the hell out! If you have the time, you can poison the water supply on your way out or rig up a welcoming surprise for the new tenants that they're sure to get a bang out of. If you're grossly offended at having to leave a really choice location you may even want to come back and personally express your displeasure. Not wise or recommended but it may be an option. Randy Weaver was secluded, had a pretty self-sufficient set-up but violated rule #1 by inviting unwanted attention to himself with disastrous results. Lay low, be quiet. Be a ghost. Eschew any ill-placed machismo that makes you want to prove your manly bravery. To whom are you going to boast? If there's any one out there whose opinion you value, they're probably already in your group.
Travel light. Be quickly mobile. Avoid any fatal attractions to property.
How many will be in your group? Just family? Does that include your lazy, loud-mouthed, drunken brother-in-law because sis says she loves him? Better to cut your losses at the onset and leave them both behind than to introduce that sort of unstble element into your group dynamics. Your very best MAY not be good enough to guarantee survival but weak links will virtually assure your suicide. How will decisions be made in the group? By democratic process or by authoritarian mandates? Democratic process is fine in peace time but in war/anarchy, a group functions more efficiently if they have a recognized (and respected) leader.
Will you take in "strays"?

While out foraging or hunting you come across some woman with maybe a couple of kids. They're all ragged, dirty, hungry and are now looking at you as their new Messiah. Do you take them "home", feed them, give them chores? The rest of your group may not appreciate your gallantry. Are you willing to take food out of your children's mouth to feed someone elses? How many chores do you have? Are you building an east wing onto your tree house or planting a garden which makes an easily recognized (from the air) geometric pattern of your location? And what were you thinking being spotted so easily by anyone? It could just as easily have been an armed group of sociopaths.
In all cases of accidental encounters whether they be ragamuffins or sociopaths, do NOT let them know you are with a group, have a semi cozy niche carved out for yourself, any supplies other than what you're carying or that you're even staying in the area. "Just passing through" is your story. You may be lucky and only get robbed and beaten badly. In the case of ragamuffins you may (willingly) be only deprived of your daily pemican rations and smile while they bless your name before God and the angels. When you send them on their way make sure their exit does not cross the path of your retreat. In fact, your retreat should not HAVE a path. We are all creatures of habit and tend to come and go the same way. A "man trail" is just as easy to hunt from as a deer trail. Try to be smarter than your dinner by not creating a trail.
Do you have a dog? Why? Dogs have their uses and heaven knows (as do the local police) that I've defended the behavior of my loveable 90# monster mutt but unless you're mushing a sled they're not ideal to have in a survival situation. They bark which warns you of an intruders presence but it also alerts intruders to your presence. They eat which means one more mouth to feed. If you let your dog hunt its own food they'll run off every deer in the area. They may catch ONE and you may even be able to wrest it from the dog, but deer will not soon return to an area that's been run with dogs. Your dog may throw its life away protecting you and/or your loved ones but you and everyone in your group should be well-trained enough to defend yourselves better than the dog could anyway. Dogs are parasite magnets: fleas, ticks, intestinal worms, etc. All of which your group needs to avoid like the plague (which parasites are capable of carrying). In short, leave the family pet behind.

There MAY be ideal locations in which to ride out the impending storm in relative comfort but, if they exist, you should probably already be there. If you're still hanging around undecided, you'll probably be caught in the round-up or die trying to get out too late. The choices are really only 2: leave to whatever spot you choose within the next few months or stay and try to change the tide.
Thus ends my verbose and overly opinionated response.

reply to post by whitewave

You've convinced me! there's no hope for any of us. From now on my motto is "Carpe Diem" or for the Latin challenged.. "Seize the day".

Seriously though, no matter how bad it might get, it could always be worse. What's the worst that can happen.. you all die which might end up being a mixed blessing of sorts. All you can do is try..

A very well said and well thought out post.
The reality is that we are fk'd right out of the gate. Having the illusion may be enough though to want to stand up and try. I cannot fathom how bad it would get before I would give up. I would like to think that being aware of what is happening and having an evolving plan suited to these changes would give us at the very least a better edge than our neighbors.

Who knows how things will go? My main plan for us is to hole up with our supplies and deal with what comes our way for as long as we can. If there is zero chance for survival, why not defend the home to the death? At the very least, we can take as many to hell with us as possible.

I keep reflecting back to Katrina and how those poor people just gave over their weapons without so much as a shot fired. The fact that those who swore to fight to protect themselves just gave in teaches a strong lesson. I would rather be a lion for a day, than be a lamb for a month.

reply to post by LLoyd45


I don't advocate giving up or abandoning hope. I advocate for realistic planning. Things can (and probably will) get worse and all one can really do is to keep the mind and body in a state of readiness and be adaptable.

It seems real easy to put a flee or stay answer to the question but don’t any of you think that it should depend on the situation?

The first thing you do in any emergency, time provided, is assess the situation.

Sure, Dr. is going to stay on his block with his doctor and musician neighbors and his little back yard garden and they can all pretend they are in some 1950s sitcom with his shovels and hammers and jars of food.

What happens when it doesn’t work out that way?

What happens when plague finds your block or hostile people set up a forward base in your street?

You have to be prepared for everything you can be.

Obviously, it is preferable to stay put. If it wasn’t we would all be camping and eating dirt right now.

If the time to flee comes, however, why not be as prepared as you can?

I have been thinking of this alot lately. More than usual. One of the lessons for how people react in a crisis is how my hometown reacted on the day of 9/11.

These are some of the things I remember observing:

1. People running to the grocery store buying out bottled water, canned goods, and packaged foods.

The climate in the store was a bit scary. I remember going in for just a gallon of milk. The bottled water shelf was practically empty. Customers were asking if there was more. People were hastily throwing this and that in their carts and the lines at check out were long.

2. Long lines at the gas pumps. Nearly every gas station in town had people lined up all around the block to get gas. My husband and I drove around because we were curious as to what was taking place. Luckily, our gas tank was full. We never kept it full, but we do now.

3. People at pharmacies. The nearest walgreens was packed. And for the days following 9/11. People began demanding their doctors to prescribe Cipro to keep on hand.

4. Banks. On the day of 9/11, there were ALOT of people at the ATMs. Long lines at various ATMs. Needless to say, we stopped carrying a bank account many years ago. We do not trust the bank with our monies. And I do not want the risk of banks shutting down with my money inside.

5. During the initial crisis: people automatically turn for leadership and guidance. People turned to find out what our President was going to do. I think it's important for people to realise that we are going to have to lead ourselves. Grief and shock can be paralyzing, so we must be prepared.

These are my thoughts and observations. I do not see fleeing as a safe alternative for me and my family. Not unless it is absolutely necessary. And if it becomes necessary, we do have a place to go to.

[edit on 1-3-2008 by Asherah]

Remember that while bugging out is hardly an ideal situation, your hand may be forced. During Situation X your house may catch fire. It may just plain old fall down. There might be disease, and it might be catching. Don't discount it. Like Cavscout said, respond to the situation.

DE

It makes me think of the hurricanes that hit us a few years back.

Being the kid that grew up watching Red Dawn so much the lady at the local video store (long before Blockbuster) just gave it to me, I already had supplies and water and fuel ready for 2 weeks of being cut off from re-supply. What blew my mind was the people that had nothing. The days leading up to and immediately after Charlie hit there were lines at the gas stations a hundred cars long for gas pumps that had already gone dry. There were throngs of people at the grocery store but there was nothing left to buy and I did not have to deal with any of that at all. I stayed home and watched tv on battery power eating spam and canned spinach and helped the neighbors in my Mom's hood clean up.

Now what if my house had been blown down and I was left with nothing. All my supplies gone and most of my options. Well, I personally had a back-up plan. And then a back-up back-up plan. And then? Nothing. No Back-up back-up back-up plan.

So the lesson I learned?
Be prepared for what you can be prepared for, and be prepared to be unprepared for what you can not be prepared for. There's always gonna be something and that something is always gonna be what happens.

And always maintain hope. If you assume you are defeated and that ultimately every plan can or will fail then you might as well not worry and see what is on TMZ or Oprah.

Originally posted by cavscout

Sure, Dr. is going to stay on his block with his doctor and musician neighbors and his little back yard garden and they can all pretend they are in some 1950s sitcom with his shovels and hammers and jars of food.

I just love the dismissive tone of that whole paragraph. If you can't be bothered to make your point logically, you can always belittle a stranger.


Too much ego, not enough info. Oh yeah, that's why I keep drifting away from this place.

.