You've probably heard that former Prime Minister of Pakistan and opponent of Pervez Musharaff, Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated. For more on
that, including theories on who's behind it, please visit This Thread, by Jgruh4e
But I'm creating this thread to consider the consequences vis-a-vis Iran. Whoever is behind this, it has created a moment of opportunity for a lot of
Iran must see the chance to blame Musharaff and bring about an Islamic Revolution in Pakistan, which would isolate Afghanistan and cause US efforts
there to fail, and give Iran a like-minded nuclear nation for a neighbor, and maybe even free nukes of its own.
Musharaff must be worried about being blamed, and about who (including him) might be next if this is pure terrorism. He will want more crackdowns.
That will beget internal problems for Pakistan.
And The US, on top of seeing the two above very real dangers, must also see the chance to use them as justification for preemptive action.
If the terrorists are making a bid to create a power vaccuum in Pakistan, there's gonna be a civil war. If Musharaff cracks down, that may prompt a
civil war, maybe
even a coup, although that's not entirely likely since Musharaff has close ties to his commanders.
Either way, the US immediately tells Musharaff that we're coming for the nukes, and if he wants our help he'd better allow it. I don't really think
we'll get there in time with the kind of forces it will take if things get very chaotic in that country (because I don't think the Pakistani
military will hand over the nukes without a fight, regardless of Musharaff's orders, and you know that ISI will be working against us).
Then we've got a nuke hunt, and a blank check to covertly cross Iranian borders going after them. We're not talking about a few panty raids. We're
talking about putting batallions on the ground in Iranian space to block roads and search whole towns that are considered possible pit-stops for the
alleged traffickers, and bombing the holy hell out of any Iranian forces that so much as twitch when they go in.
Will Iran take that sitting down? No. They'll kill a few dozen of our guys and lose a few hundred of theirs. And we won't find the missing nukes, be
they real or imaginary. And America will want revenge.
This represents the single best chance Bush has ever had or will ever have to make Pakistan 100% compliant AND invade Iran. If he doesn't take it, I
will be very worried about just how degraded our military is, because I don't think for a second he'll hesitate if he thinks he can pull it off.
And the stakes are higher than the official explanations. Pakistan controls the future of Afghanistan because Pakistan controls Afghan access to the
sea. Covert control of Pakistan gives us incredible influence over India, because they won't want us to set up another Iraq on their border and then
limit what they can do about it ala Iraq/Turkey. Iran, more than just giving us oil, gives us a compelling presence in Central Asia to check any
future Chinese ambitions for westward expansion, not to mention the economic pressure it would put on China. That's a lot of motivation.