Asteroid may hit Mars next month!, page 1

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Topic started on 20-12-2007 @ 09:53 PM by mel1962

A newly discovered asteroid may hit Mars on January 30th, 2008. It has a 1 in 75 chance!

Mars robots are not in danger!

Here is the full story:

Asteroid

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 09:59 PM by masqua

Nice find, mel1962

This will get the peeps with the big scopes excited for sure.

I hope we've got some big eyes with CCD cameras on this if it happens on the side visible on Earth.

Fantastic!

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:00 PM by jarheadjock

From the source provided

The asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November and is similar in size to an object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908, unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb and wiping out 60 million trees.

Will it prove that Tunguska was an asteroid?

Wow!!! How visivle will it be?? As i live in a city, and Mars's postion is unbeknownst to me, can people on Earth see it? I mean if it happens, and if we know the spot it will likely hit? Is it even possible to know?

Thanks OP!

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:01 PM by Gools

"We know that it's going to fly by Mars and most likely going to miss, but there's a possibility of an impact,"

So... um... what are the chances of a glancing blow and the debris flying toward earth?

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:05 PM by mel1962

reply to post by masqua

Thanks, here is another news article!

LA Times

It is the size of the 1908 event on earth, everyone is rooting this one on, should be interesting pictures if it hits . . . unless, it causes a chain reaction with all the other planets and causing the destruction of earth!

Just kidding, long periods on ATS can lead to paranoia!

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:28 PM by NGC2736

Now that would be interesting. If it does happen, I certainly hope we have something in position to "see" it. This would be a rare chance to see such an event.

Good find, OP.

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:40 PM by redoubt

Originally posted by mel1962
reply to post by masqua

Just kidding, long periods on ATS can lead to paranoia!

Thanks for that head's up!

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 10:55 PM by benevolent tyrant

Wow! Should that asteroid beat the odds and actually strike Mars, it should be an amazing event. I only hope that the asteroid strike will be visible. I know that I will be out there looking.

Even if the actual strike is not visible, we still should see "something". I would imagine a large dust cloud and the inevitable change to the surface of the planet. It would be an ideal time to send another rover to the area. Being able to study the "excavated" sub Martian soils might prove to be interesting.

This is one astronomical event that we should all keep an eye out for. Thanks again for the "heads up".

reply posted on 20-12-2007 @ 11:49 PM by IAttackPeople

With mega luck perhaps a current rover can catch visual evidence of a strike on the surface.

If it happens.

I hope it does.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 05:46 AM by anhinga

...initially the odds were 1 in 350 and it was upped on the last pass, *they* are quoted as saying it will "most likely" miss Mars -- but those odds are pretty low when dealing w/ something like this. Plus, it's named 2007 w/ some letters, doesn't that mean it was discovered this year?

Seems like more of a threat then *they* are making it out to be, we usually go on for pages about chances of something hitting Earth in the one in a million range.

Nice find OP.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 05:50 AM by Donoso

reply to post by Gools

The chances are exceptionally slim to none. Even if there were to be ejecta that somehow magically escapes Mars' gravity it would consist of very small debris which would burn up in our atmosphere.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter is in place and will be for a few more years. If it happens, you can bet your bottom dollar HiRise will be all over it.

en.wikipedia.org...

Also, to answer the question if it's predictable where the asteroid will impact: yes. They already know if it's going to happen it will happen relatively close to where the early rover missions took place. The rovers are just outside of the projected impact zone which is at the equator.

If it does happen, it will be an exciting time for science. There's so much that can be learned from this single event. The amount of data and types of data can range from each end of every spectrum. Lets just hope the asteroid breaks the odds and does impact.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 05:57 AM by anhinga

reply to post by Donoso

...I wonder what the science involved was to determine that the rovers were safe from this potential impact -- I mean, is there really a way to test that?

I doubt the rover is "safe" from such a powerful impact, that close to where it's situated.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 06:04 AM by BlackProjects

Even if it hits Mars who says it will be visable to earth telescopes? Second maybe if it misses it will hit one of the moons..any possibility of that?

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 06:07 AM by Donoso

reply to post by anhinga

The same way you can determine if you're safe from a specific yield nuclear weapon, here's a "fun" interactive tool to help illustrate:

www.fas.org...

If you're interested behind the science:

nuclearweaponarchive.org...

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 06:22 AM by anhinga

reply to post by Donoso

Yikes, some 'interesting' links there. Thanks, checking them out now....

...the one w/ the map is 'great' -- totally shows the affected area from such a strike, w/ a variety of cities to choose from.

One more question, does the gravity/atmosphere on Mars change this equation at all?

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 06:34 AM by Donoso

reply to post by anhinga

I do believe it would, although, not exactly a tremendous amount. When we're talking about a blast equivalent to that of a 15 Megaton nuclear device, you're going to want to go with the most conservative air -> ground radius. I'm sure there are certain variables being modified for a better scale under Mars' conditions.

We have to keep in mind that the only well documented asteroid impact we've ever witnessed with our own devices was the Shoemaker-Levy 9 Jupiter event. That was under non-terrestrial conditions though. Essentially, this would be another very informative bit of information that would help out in better understanding what a terrestrial impact looks like from above the source.

There's a bit of new information coming out about what exactly the Tunguska explosion would have actually been like. It's just not exactly a reliable data point for scientists since it was never truly experienced by anybody first hand in a documented manner:

www.space.com...

Ah well, if it does come to pass it'll be a truly remarkable event and we're lucky to be alive to witness such a rare event.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 07:01 AM by turbokid

what i take away from that article is how relatively "out of the blue" this seems to come. i mean, they discovered it a few weeks ago and it could hit in a month. what if it was headed for earth? meh, i guess the "skywatchers" dont have as big of a handle on things coming into our neck of the woods as i thought.

aside from that, it will be awesome to see!!

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 07:52 AM by zephyrs

reply to post by turbokid

I was thinking the same thing. If this asteroid were on its way to Earth, we'd be in for a major event to say the least.

I'd love to see this asteroid hit Mars and have one of the Rovers head over to the impact site and check things out.

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 08:04 AM by Hal9000

I saw this earlier on the news. This could be interesting and scary at the same time. If the asteroid were to hit Mars, that would prove that these events occur even more often than we realize and we could be next.

The article said it was to hit near the equator by one of the rovers and even if it was out of the danger zone, there will probably be a planet wide dust storm that would spell the end of the rovers. They are so dust covered now they will be lucky to survive the Martian Winter.

Never mind life on Mars, what about a car wash?

reply posted on 21-12-2007 @ 08:11 AM by St Udio

if 2007 WD5 does impact Mars that would sure help answer some question
of underground water on the planet.

in a dry terrain the impact may look like meteor crater in Arizona,

if it plows into one of Mars' former 'seas' and the impact site looks like
a Crater Lake in Oregon (which is actually a caldera)

then scientists can design a better 'starter habitat' for a Mars mission.

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