Think About Frequencies Rather than Probabilities

I've got a question which i found very interesting and wondered how everyone would answer it. For those who's done the question before, let others answer first plz.

'Imagine you're a participant on a game show, hoping to win the big prize. The final hoop to jump through is to select the right door from a choice of three. Behind each door is either a prize (one of the three doors) or a booby prize (two of the doors). In this case, the booby prizes are goats.

You choose a door.

To raise the tension, the game-show host, Monty, looks behind the other doors and throws one open (not yours) to reveal a goat. He then gives you the choice of sticking with your choice or switching to the remaining unopened door.

Two doors are left. One must have a goat behind it, one must have a prize. Should you stick, or should you switch? Or doesn't it matter?'

Many of the greatest mind on this world have got it wrong, including me

You stick god dammit!

You make your bed and you sleep in it.

You switch. The other one has better odds once one is eliminated.

Originally posted by apc
You switch. The other one has better odds once one is eliminated.

Yep, that's what I learned in Logic class. I forget how the odds are calculated though.

When you begin, you have a 33.3% chance of choosing right. But doesn't two choices left mean 50/50%?

[edit on 7-10-2007 by tocs100]

I would have said switch as well because of the same reason. The worst that could happen would be you'd end up with two goats. You could sell both of them to the Mexicans for a BB-Q and still come out alright.

I see it two ways,

First, you pick one. That one has odds of 1 in 3. When one is eliminated, the one you picked still has odds of 1 in 3, but the one you didn't pick has odds of 1 in 2.

Or, when one is eliminated, the one you picked is still 1 in 3, but if you include the possible outcomes of the one that was eliminated, knowing that they were all goats, the other one left has odds of 2 in 3.

Either way it seems you are presented with a 50/50, but you still have to take into account the third as an original option.

>
What's with the goats anyway? You know in some cultures a goat is a very valuable commodity.

[edit on 7-10-2007 by apc]

Game shows are FREQUENTLY rigged so that only people that are liked win.

So therefore if your a prize tit. It dosen't make any difference, your going home with the goat!

If your a kindergarten teacher with blonde hair and size 34DD chicken fillets. It dosen't make any difference, your getting the prize and a night in a cheap hotel with Monty!!

MonKey logic!!