Georgia: Russia dropped bomb on village

Originally posted by Hellmutt
I guess Georgia might attack South Ossetia & Abkhazia soon. South Ossetia & Abkhazia will fight back with help/aid from Tiraspol.

If Saakashvilli is dumb enough to organize a full-scale attack, then he will bury himself and his regime. Georgia lost once, and never really regained its national pride after that. I doubt Russia will intervene on a full scale, but you can bet some Russian mercenaries and volunteers will go over to fight for Abkhazia. But Saakashavilli will face the most threat from his own people. Shevarnadze learned this the hard way - it weren't Ossetians or Abkhazians who tried to assassinate him (and on several occasions almost succeeded), but Georgians - even military personell who were supposed to serve him.

Georgian politics are too complex, and Saakashvilli will not be able to rally all of the population behind him, wherther he joins NATO or attacks the separatists. And you can bet that the part of the population that will be against him, won't resort to peaceful protests and other "democratic" nonesense. They will try to assassinate him and destroy his regime. That is how things worked in the South Caucasus since the fall of the USSR, and they are not about to change anytime soon. The previous two leaders were both forcefully evicted. Saakashvilli will eventually either be murdered by his own people, or will be forced to flee the country. He is no different from Shevarnadze, but he sure seems more bold and as such more stupid.

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

Mister maloy - most EXCELLENT posts!



Now I find the following very interesting;

Why does Georgia matter strategically?

Most of present-day Georgia became part of the Russian empire in 1801-04 and Russia has traditionally regarded the Caucasus as part of its sphere of influence.

Today Georgia is on the route for a US-backed pipeline linking Caspian Sea oilfields to world markets. US firms have invested huge capital in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Russia is also keen to export Caspian oil and has two rival pipelines, one which crosses the North Caucasus and another which links Kazakhstan to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

So - naturally the Russians do not want an US-backed pipeline, which would link the Caspian sea oil and gas fields with the Europe and the world markets. And that could be one more reason why Russia would want another incident in this part of their former Empire. Just my two cents...

So, it could be a "wag the dog" type strategy on Georgia's part. On the heels of Russia's announcement of building new nuclear weapons and knowing that the U.S. now has a extreme interest (were there's oil, there's U.S. interest) in the region, Georgia may have staged this "strike" in a ploy to gather sentiment from America and allies and finally break any hopes of Russian interest in the country and avoid future incidents. To have this incident on the front page of the international media and world powers speaking out on Georgia's sovereignty would be a boost to the nation's pride and and possibly counter regrets from past wars.

On the other hand, Russia could have staged this strike in order to provoke Georgia into another war in hopes of fully seizing control of it's former territory once and for all — preventing any hopes of an American backed pipeline through the region. This doesn't make much sense though on Russia's part. They would have been better off staging a strike on themselves, much like the 9/11 conspiracy theory, giving them a reason to go into a full scale invasion.

At this point, all is speculation, but as with all politics, there's always an underlying reason for anything.

It sounds like a setup to me, an attempt by the Georgian leadership to try to get NATO involved.

The Russians don't seem big on "subtle hints" like this, if they were going to hit the Georgians, there wouldn't be much doubt afterwards what had happened.

Originally posted by Souljah
So - naturally the Russians do not want an US-backed pipeline, which would link the Caspian sea oil and gas fields with the Europe and the world markets.

I have previosuly mentioned that the Caspian Sea and the vast oil resources there as well as neighboring Turkmenistan, and the unstable and bickering governments in local CIS countries will create a new Middle-East type affair around the Caspian Sea. The pipeline you talk about is only the beginning. There is a major arguement going on right now between Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (the countries that border Caspian Sea) about how the Caspian Sea and its resources should be divided amongst them. Russia has reached a deal with Kazakhstan, while Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are leaning towards US interest. As for Iran - that only makes it so much more interesting.

Neither Azerbaijan or Georgia have significant oil resources (not including off-shore). They see the pipeline as their barganing chip, and a way to facilitate friendship with the US. The enemies of Georgiana and Azerbaijani regimes (specifically separatists) though see the pipelines as the major obstacle to their agenda. It has already been targeted numerous times in Nagorno-Karabakh (pro-Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan). I remember explosions there no too long ago.

In effect, this pipeline upset the balance that existed before it, and placed the entire region in fear of war. Along with the pipeline, the governments receive money and no doubt weapons and inteligence from the West. US has also been pressuring Georgia and Azerbaijan to resolve the conflicts with the separatists because of the danger to the pipeline. However the only "resolve" is war. As I said before - US and to some extent Russia are going to create a Middle East 2.0 in Southwest Asia. But Russia has always been there, while US is a newcomer to region - so whatever happens will be the responsibility of the US.

And the pipeline is just the tip of the iceberg. It handles but a little portion of the oil reserves in the Caspian. But it does show Americans' ambitions.

Originally posted by Souljah
And that could be one more reason why Russia would want another incident in this part of their former Empire. Just my two cents...

If Russia wanted to cause a problem for the pipeline and oil, it would have done something in Nagorno Karabakh with the help of Armenian forces (Russia's only true ally there). The pipeline runs right through Karabakh, and that is where there would be the most damage from such a stunt. But the pipeline is not near South Ossetia, and South Ossetia has absolutely nothing to do with oil.

Look at who has to gain the most from the attack - Saakashvilli's national propaganda.

Contrary to some opinions, Russia is not interested in a War in Georgia. Most of all because they fear it will drag in the US and NATO, which will try to secure Saakashvilli in power any way they can. Next thing you know - he be the Musharaaf of the Caucasus. There is a reason why Russia kept their peacekeepers there. If one part of the Caucasus is relatively stable - it is easier to keep the other parts stable (Chechnya). But when a war breaks out, the entire regions starts boiling.

Originally posted by Souljah
Two Su-34 jets? And Georgian Air Force does not have this kind of jets. So where did they come from then?

Since when can radar detect what type of a jet it is? Correct me if I am wrong.

Since the jets weren't intercepted and I doubt anyone on the ground had a good look at them, it's not that easy to conclude whose jets they were, or what they were doing there. I know there is a lot of military movement and manuevering on the Georgian side near the disputed border with South Ossetia. Recently there has been alot of random small arms fire from both sides. And the Russian military hasn't gottan involved for several years now.

What could the Russian jets be doing there? Drop a single bomb on a Georgian settlement, and then what?

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

Those are some great points you made mister maloy.

I just have a question: Where are you from, since you know a lot about stuff going on in this region? Thanks!

Anyway, the more I read the more I am starting to think re-think this situation again. It really does looks like a kind of False flag operation from the Georgian side, designed to make it look, like the Russians attacked them.

Maloy,

I'm also extremely curious as to where you're from. You really understand Eastern European affairs. I myself am from Hungary so I am familiar (or consider myself to be) more familiar with idealogy in the regions. I've always been fascinated at the extreme diversity in thought in the regions just to the east of myself.

Anyways, thanks for the extremely well informed posts!

[edit on 7-8-2007 by Donoso]

I live near St. Petersburg Russia, but my grandparents are from Krasnodar Region, which is in far Southern Russia near the border with Abkhazia, and I have spent alot of time there. I have also spent a little time in Dagestan (before the war) and Abkhazia (Novy Afon and Sukhumi - after the war). I actually just came back from vacationing in Abkhazia 3 weeks ago. Russians still vacation there, and the prices are unbelievably low, while the nature and the beaches are the best on the Black Sea.

I also know alot a Georgians who study with me.

I have spent some time reading about the history of the Caucasus. The mess dates back to the Turkish invasions during the Middle Ages and conversions to Islam among some local tribes. In fact Georgia and Armenia became allies and eventually joined the Russian empire on their own accord - because of this. The USSR era forcefully put an end to the bickering, but the fall of USSR and the new division of once-common land only exacerbated the problem. The populations and the once localized tribes became so scattered that it was no simple to draw the new borders. Also historical land division is unclear because of so many wars in the regions. Some say Abkhazia and South Ossetia were never truly Georgian, Nor did Nagorno Karabakh ever belong to Azerbaijani. But then Chechnya, Ossetia, Dagestan, and the other regions never really gave in to anyone's control, and still resist persistantly. You could divide the Caucasus into 100 autonomous nations, and you would still have non-stop wars.

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

You could divide the Caucasus into 100 autonomous nations, and you would still have non-stop wars.

Wow! so it is that bad over there? Do you think it is likely for Russia to follow what U.S. did and start their own little Iraq like war in the area? I live in the Caribbean so I really have no idea whats going on over there.

Originally posted by Clandestino
Wow! so it is that bad over there? Do you think it is likely for Russia to follow what U.S. did and start their own little Iraq like war in the area? I live in the Caribbean so I really have no idea whats going on over there.

Look at Chechnya. There are about 5 or 6 tribes there, who have waged war against each other for many centuries. Each time they get attacked by a larger neighbor, like Russia, they unite and throw aside their differences to fight them. Then when the war is over, they get back to their old quarrels. Already in fact different factions within Chechnya are starting to fight each other. And other neighboring regions are fairly similar, except the USSR era quelled many conflicts somewhat. Actually I think for the Caucasus - the time of the USSR was the calmest period the region has ever seen.

And no - Russia has no interest in invading Georgia, and they know they won't be able to hold it. If the Southern Causus becomes too volatile, it would however spell trouble for Southern Russia, as there could be a new influx of mujahedeen from the Middle East, and a war could spill over into Chechnya and Dagestan.

Originally posted by makeitso
A similar thing happened there in March. The U.N. investigated and basically said, eh, sorry 'bout your luck dudes. See ya later.

U. N. probe of Georgia attack does not assign blame

The UN is more or less a joke.

A friend of mine who has some expertise on military matters said that the "700kg bomb" is more than likely a simple drop-tank for fuel, which was dropped for some reason, possibly an emergency. The fuel drop-tanks are exactly the same mass and size as the alleged bomb, and would explain the lack of explosion and the burn marks.

Also there is no munitions currently in use by Russian airforces that match the description of the "bomb". But I bet we won't see this theory presented on BBC or CNN - after all somebody has to be the boogeyman to keep Eastern Europe scared and begging for help. It would be pretty funny if Georgia made such a huge deal because of drop-tanks.

Saakashvilli did miss a great opportunity though. Just think about it - Georgian troops could have quickly arrived on scene, took the drop tank (as intimidating as it look) and substituted a nuclear bomb in its place. Then they could say Russia tried to bomb them, and talk US into striking Russia. Then Russia would have struck back, and with the absense of US and Russia Saakashvilli could have taken over the world. I guess he was just too slow...

[edit on 7-8-2007 by maloy]

In what can only be termed a wise move, Georgia has detonated the alleged bomb today, effectively gettin rid of all evidence, except for the PR stinkfest of course. Now why would Georgia do this? Could it be that they discovered their brotherly love for Russia, and decided to destroy the evidence and save Russia from international damnation?

There is something fishy in this; Finnish media that is commonly very well informed with russian affairs and commonly news here have been objective. This is now broadcasted with a very clear pro Georgian twist... so very is this (dis)information coming from?

Thank you Maloy, you've given people a good perspective on this issue.


Have you heard of any unofficial news on troop movements in the region?

I'd say that the best indicator about oncoming miitary actions would be mobilisation of the 76th division in Pskov as it's probably the spearhead Russia relies on at the moment.

Ps. It's nice to be on the same side with you on this Maloy

Lots of points here:

1. Souljah was totally anti-Russia until Tavaarish Maloy began to to convince him otherwise!
   
2. Most westerners think this to be a Russian ploy
   
3. Everyone else seems to think otherwise! With the inclusion of learned members like northwolf and stumason
   
4. That crater looks extremely fake.
   
5. That seems to be a empty fuel pod, but it could also be and iron bomb.
   
6. Really powerful radars CAN determine the type of a/c by the engine turbine blade configuration. However for that they need to have such radars and intel on the engines of the a/c. Georgia has neither IMO.
   
7. There's a really cool pic of some T-72s with decorative flags. Gives it an awesome medival look, but its totally counterproductive for the camo on eh rest of the tank!
   
   
8. Interesting to see NorthWolf tagging the Russian line on this. Always thought him to be pro-west. Maybe he feels differently on this issue. Even more surprised to hear about the Finnish media angle which I thought would be mostly neutral!
   
9. Oh C'mon guys!! See this for what it is! No doubt about it! Its a really badly executed Georgian con.
   That Saakashvili is trying really hard to convince his people !
   
   

I found this article to be interesting:

Georgia’s arms race

The military reforms since the coming to power of Mikheil Saakashvili have been impressive: old officers have been fired and new ones recruited, and most paramilitary units have been merged with the army (a major Nato demand). The army also received significant training assistance as well as equipment from the United States military: in 2002 (that is, already under Shevardnadze), an eighteen-month "train and equip" programme with a total budget of $64 million was started to modernise four infantry battalions and one mechanised company. Georgia also received valuable equipment, such as ten UH-1 transportation helicopters from the US government. The value of the US military cooperation with the Georgian armed forces in 2007 is estimated at $34 million. As a result, some 16,000 troops are now considered trained by the US military.

Moscow is increasingly displeased to see the Nato and specifically US military presence becoming permanent in what once was part of its southern Soviet provinces. The Kremlin vehemently opposes Georgian entry into Nato. Recently, President Putin even threatened to withdraw from the conventional forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, an eventuality which would leave the European continent without an arms-control mechanism.

The recent announcement in Tbilisi to increase Georgian military participation in Iraq from 850 to 2,000 comes at a time when most European nations have already started withdrawing their troops, and the Bush administration is under political pressure in Washington to come up with its own schedule to decrease troops. Another 150 Georgian military serve in Kosovo. Georgian leaders are making the huge effort in the military domain hoping that they will be recompense by a Nato admission.

So I see a patteren emerging - Georgia is really trying very hard to "suck-up" to NATO and the U.S. by doing anything possible to be accepted into this alliance. It is kind of a proxy-war between U.S. and Russia, fighting over fragments of former U.S.S.R. in strategic positions, where there is oil and gas reserves and where the territory shall be used to build a new pipeline to Europe and the West, which shall then try to liberete the Europe and the West from the Russia's owned gas reserves - which is used for cooking across entire European countries.

Daedalus, Some comments on few of your points:
A. I think we'll have to salute maloy for a job well done
G. The pic is really cool, could Helmutt provide me a bigger version
H. Read my sig I really hate how US media is twisting and over simplifying these issues. Since this conflict is mainly not caused by russia and they have rather attempted to keep the region peaceful. But i still don't like russians too much, sitting within their artillery range might explain that

I just wanted to add to this discussion that I believe Infinite's two posts are based on faulty logic For starters the Georgian minister saying it was Russian planes means nothing if you are trying to combat the theory that it's a Georgian ruse. Also utilizing the polonium poisoning to some how cast the Russians in a negative light also fails to combat the theory that Russians are being systematically vilified in the corporate mass media.

Both the poisoning and this alleged bombing wreak of false-flag operations designed to discredit Russia. When you couple this with the huge spike in anti-Chinese news articles you start to wonder just what the deal is here. Why are two of the world's three poles of influence being demonized in the mass media?

Throw in the fact that Russia has ABSOLUTELY nothing to gain with dropping a thousand bombs on this village, let alone one, and you can deduce the smell of bullcrap in the wind. The real question is why the smear campaign? And why now?

[edit on 8/8/07 by subz]

I'd just like to add, for the record.

I greatly dislike Russia, but understand that geopolitics in the region are very complex.

I also believe that moving Georgia and other ex-soviet bloc countries to the EU and
the West and away from Russia is in the best interests of the world.


Now back to your regularly scheduled debating.