Ready for $262 a barrel oil?, page 1

Soros and Browder at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland say heads up, the crude fat lady singeth.

CNN
That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.

The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.

More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).

In any event, the price of oil is not whether it will go up but by how much. Recent Palestinian election results adds even more fuel to the middle east fire of worst case scenarios which includes war with Iran.

Climate change, economic instability, dwindling resources, overpopulation, diplomatic and social polarity all point to a stronger case for global war. Then it doesn't matter what the price of crude is, since civilians won't have an option to buy it.

Oil: $67.76/bbl at the time of posting.










[edit on 27-1-2006 by Regenmacher]

His worse case scenario is unlikely, imo. But I wouldn't be surprised to see oil in the $80 range sometime this year. Heck, not even a month into the year and it went over $69, before dropping another couple dollars. It's on it's way back up as of tonight but who knows, watching the oil price is like riding a rollercoaster.

The Hugo Chavez thing may not be so far fetched. With all the noise about Nigeria and Iran, Mr Chavez was making threats of his own

"Every day we send them 1.5 million barrels of oil," said Chavez. "What would happen if tomorrow I were to say that no ship leaves for the United States?"

"How high would the price of a barrel go? I think it could hit $100," he said, making clear the idea wasn't being considering at present but was possible if the U.S. were to try to oust him.

www.nctimes.com...

And then there is this....

Experts see $100 a barrel oil

Geopolitical conflicts taking their toll: Iran issue alone could cause disruption.

Experts say the Iran issue alone could push oil prices past $100 a barrel. If the U.N. Security Council were to authorize sanctions against Tehran, which the West accuses of trying to make nuclear bombs, Iran has threatened to curb oil exports in retaliation.

"Even if Iran pulled a small amount of its oil off the market, say it pulled a half million barrels a day, I could see oil prices literally jumping over the $100 per barrel mark," said James Bartis, a senior researcher at Rand Corp.

A sharp global economic slowdown could follow. That's the dilemma the United States and European nations face as they decide whether to act.

Wall Street has gamed the system to keep oil prices high despite increased domestic production.
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Enough World Oil Reserves for the Next Million Years?
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Just HOW much does it cost to produce a litre/gallon of petrol/gasoline ?
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who needs oil, We need Weapons Grade Hydride
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