Iran rejects Russia's offer

Originally posted by Harlequin
as you have said yourself wind and temperature condtions have to right - which of course tactical planning will take in to effect.

Well if it's a retaliatory attack they won't be able to choose the right timing. Therefore relying on pot luck.

1 mile IS enough to effect collateral damage when using BAC agents. The persistance of BAC agents is much greater than radiological agents

That isn't necessarily true. Bacterial agents are very hard to store in warheads and even harder to disperse using an explosive. That's why spray tanks are often used. You'd be surprised how hard it is to keep bacteria alive. Only the most advanced countries ie. Russia and the US have the capability to produce truly effective bio weapons.
Then of course their is the bacterium to be used, what strains of say Anthrax do the Iranians have access to, there are many strains of varying potency.
The Russians have the most powerful strain found in rats in a Delhi sewer. If you have the money and are interested I suggest you read a book called " Biohazard " by Ken Alibekov. The Head of Soviet Bio weapons R&D.

All this talk of hybrid bacteria and super-strains are mostly bogus. The Soviets claimed to have crossed certain viruses such as Small Pox and Plague, but these claims remain unsubstantiated.

scrap teh top meter and seal it , and that's the rad count dealt with (they did that after the ground burts test in new mexico) the problem with bio agents and chem agents is the fact that it gets everywhere and `sticks` to everything , even when you decom , say a fence , you have to spray , over , under and along every single part - and twice just to make sure.

When using nuclear weapons, you don't have to worry about cleaning any surfaces, because none remain. Using ground burst weapons as well, will cause massive radiation - the Israeli's might even get overly creative and use cobalt in a few weapons.

Radiation im not scarred about - i have been trained to deal with it , i know pattern spreads and 1/2 life and measures of containment.

Obviously, you don't live in Israel or Iran.

bio wepaons and chem weapons IMO are far more dangerous as many are very resistant to being decom`d.

Care to name a few. For a start CW, break down very quickly in weeks an area will be benign. BW weapons are somewhat trickier, I doubt the Iranians are advanced enough to be able to keep a disease alive long enough without a host. The US and Russians spent billions developing methods to coat bacteria to make it more resistant, even UV light from the sun can kill the germs.

there has been enough talk on russia aiding the muslim world against western `agression` and yes i know that russia doesn`t border iran - turkmenistan does , but as a former soviet state , `mother russia` will respond to any calls for aid (when the clouds drift accross the border as an example)

And Russian aid is nuking Israel

I still have an iusse of range - this would have to be HI-LO-LO mission - they couldn`t go HI again after the raid as every SAM would be tracking them on the way out and the F-14`s would be running awacs as well.They would have to tank at the border on teh way AND on the way out , and run in mach busting the whole time ; this time its different to the last time israel bombed the reactor.

Hmm, well I'm sure SAM positions have been carefully plotted and a course would be planned to take these into account. For all the vaunted claims of the Russian S-300 it's yet to see any combat
Since when does Iran have AWACS ? As for the F-14's they aren't in very good repair. 25 years with no factory support

I wasn`t aware that 2 potential enemies train together in more than `red flag` exercies - turkey is part of nato , israel isn`t. You do know that turkey is still fighting the kurds to try and stop them forming there own country , ceeding away from iraq don`t you?

OK, why are Israel and Turkey potential enemies ? None of them harbour any claims to each others territory or have clashing strategic interests. As a matter of fact they cooperate very closely such as with water.

An old article (1997) detailing the pro's and con's of the Turkish/Israeli relationship.

Turkey and Israel are both non-Arab and also democratic states, Western-oriented and with important allied relationships to the United States. They are also moderate and status quo oriented in their foreign policies. Both want to be close to Europe but are often held at arms-length by the Europeans. Both face violent, often terroristic, enemies who attack within their borders. They are both medium-sized powers with significant defense needs. Both also see themselves primarily as nation-states, representing the aspirations of a single people. (All statements on Turkey, of course, must take into account the position of the Welfare Party so recently in the government leadership.)

Iran: Until recently, Israel was more concerned about Iran as a threat--in strategic, political, and terrorist terms--and favored sanctions. Turkey was less worried about Iran (though it didn't want Iranian influence to spread), sought good commercial relations with that state, and felt that good contacts would moderate its positions. More recently, however (in reaction to Welfare party's rise and to revelations about Iranian support for revolutionary groups within Turkey), Many elements in Ankara's elite seem to have become far more worried about Tehran.

meria.idc.ac.il...

If you do some googling, you'll find plenty of information on Israel/Turkish cooperation.

i`ve seen what properly set explosives can do - how little you really need to do an effective job - but that requires someone to be on the ground next to the darn thing in the first place - hmmmm HALO mossad agents would possibly be a better proposal than the sky full of burning aircraft.

So have I, like I said it would require hundreds of kilograms, even more to crack a reactor. Even then you haven't damaged the pile at all, which is normally underwater. Besides during any type of attack the reactor would be automatically Scrammed with the insertion of control rods into the pile shutting down the chain reaction.

Originally posted by mad scientist

Originally posted by longbow
I don't know why all that talk about the war. Simply block Iranian exports (including oil) until they stop their nuclear program and accept UN inspections. After few months their economy will be in big trouble, and they will ceratainly have no money for their WMD toys.

[edit on 2-1-2006 by longbow]

Well blocking their oil exports is far harder than it sounds and would have repercussions around the world. For example in 2002 China imported 10 million tons of oil from Iran, which is about 15% of their total imports. The Chinese wouldn't be very happy about that. That in turn would affect all the cheap goods sold in Walmart et al, in the US.

Actually everything you said makes this possibility to look better and better . And "cheap goods" can be imported from everywhere (Vietnam, Philipines, Mexico...). There was much less chinese imports in mid nineties and where was the difference? Banning all Chinese imports would the the best thing US can do.

Well if it's a retaliatory attack they won't be able to choose the right timing. Therefore relying on pot luck.

unless they go for `offensive defence` hit them before they hit you , and thus are allready planning for the right moment.

Bacterial agents are very hard to store in warheads

yes , that is true , but Anthrax isn`t my first choice of agent - i would rather look at strains of ebola , or ricin or smallpox - ebola being my prefered choice (or CCHF as well) but the method of delviery is somewhat harder with ebola or CCHF , as you cannot really air spray them.

www.fas.org...

a good list to read there

but , i do concur that iran probably only has access to anthrax or maybe smallpox

chemical agents ; the question is , what was used on them during the iran - iraq war and do they have any methylphosphonothioic acid (V agent)available? do they have any phogene agents? lung damage and drowning in your own bloody as the lungs collapse are the usual cause of death for this lot - again nasty stuff.

heck even mustard gas is very persistant , and of course with it being a blistering agent will cause death to anyone not in protection

www.fas.org...


delivery systems? rockets , shells , drums in cargo pplanes that sort of thing

Hmm, well I'm sure SAM positions have been carefully plotted and a course would be planned to take these into account. For all the vaunted claims of the Russian S-300 it's yet to see any combat
Since when does Iran have AWACS ? As for the F-14's they aren't in very good repair. 25 years with no factory support

The F-14`s have been kept flying using russian engines and tech - IIRC the AIM54`s use russian rocket motors now - they can field just about all teh ones they got.

and the S-300 - yes it hasn`t been tested yet , but if every claim from every manufacturer was to be believed then there was nothing left flying after day 1 of the gulf war and every ground target was hit first time everytime!

Originally posted by longbow
Actually everything you said makes this possibility to look better and better

. And "cheap goods" can be imported from everywhere (Vietnam, Philipines, Mexico...). There was much less chinese imports in mid nineties and where was the difference? Banning all Chinese imports would the the best thing US can do.

Why do you think all the major US companies are set up in China because their product is superior and cheaper than any other country.
Walmart would go bankrupt overnight, they employ 1.4 million people and that's just one major company which does business in China. Much of the US economy is based on cheap consumer goods from China.
Then of course there is the 100's of billions that US companies have incested in China, factories etc - All Gone.

as an aside , there is a war going on between the USA an CHINA allready - the recent copper prices show just how much power china have - it virtually killed the usa copper industry in the space of weeks

Originally posted by Harlequin

Bacterial agents are very hard to store in warheads

yes , that is true , but Anthrax isn`t my first choice of agent - i would rather look at strains of ebola , or ricin or smallpox - ebola being my prefered choice (or CCHF as well) but the method of delviery is somewhat harder with ebola or CCHF , as you cannot really air spray them.

Ebola is a virus and erxtraordinarily hard to weaponise, the Russians spent years trying to do it. If you believe them they were successful, but who knows.
Ricin is a toxin a poison derived from a biological source and is really only effective if ingested. It would requires a massive dose to cause significant death - hundreds of tonnes.

chemical agents ; the question is , what was used on them during the iran - iraq war and do they have any methylphosphonothioic acid (V agent)available? do they have any phogene agents? lung damage and drowning in your own bloody as the lungs collapse are the usual cause of death for this lot - again nasty stuff.

heck even mustard gas is very persistant , and of course with it being a blistering agent will cause death to anyone not in protection

All these chemical agents need a massive dose to have the effect of a strategic weapon, we are talking about thousands of tonnes that would be needed. Iran just deliver even 1% of that.

delivery systems? rockets , shells , drums in cargo pplanes that sort of thing

I fail to see, how any of these systems could be used, especially as we are talking about a massive retalitory or preemptive strike. How is Iran going to get enough delivery sytems in place ?
Rockets and shells have a limited range and small payload and cargo planes are slow and cumbersome.

The F-14`s have been kept flying using russian engines and tech - IIRC the AIM54`s use russian rocket motors now - they can field just about all teh ones they got.

I'm not even sure if the AIM-54 is operational in the Iranian Air Force. Even if it was it's avaionics would be iffy at best same with the F-14. So are you telling me Russia is custom building parts for the F-14 and AIM-54 ? sounds like an incredibly expensive proposition. Got any links ?

and the S-300 - yes it hasn`t been tested yet , but if every claim from every manufacturer was to be believed then there was nothing left flying after day 1 of the gulf war and every ground target was hit first time everytime!

There you go

[edit on 2-1-2006 by mad scientist]

i never said anything aboute the S-300 did i - but if the arguements are true - then its a PAC3 crossbread


and i totally disagree about V agents needing thousands of tonnes - more like a cup full to be horribly effective , it IS that nasty.

Originally posted by Harlequin
and i totally disagree about V agents needing thousands of tonnes - more like a cup full to be horribly effective , it IS that nasty.

You overestimate the power of VX, probably Hollywoods fault. For a saturation attack on a city less than 1% would actually effect humans, but the huge weight is necessary to ensure adequate potency and coverage. Also we're assuming that they could place the nerve agent uniformly over a large area, which is also highly unlikely.

no , VX is american - other countries produce V Agents that are comparable or even nastier (russia for example) - its the way that its made and i put russia way ahead of teh usa when it comes to chemical weapons - most of there wat plans involved chemical agents of one form or anohter; the usa would rely on nukes , russia it was chemical bombs.

The UN security council wont do anything, China and Russia are both bought by Iran and they will veto any military action or sanctions, the only real option is blockade or air strikes.

This is the Blockade of the Straight of Hormuz option.
85% of Iran’s oil exports pass through the straight of Hormuz, their biggest customer is China. This would force China to deal with the issue instead of ignoring it.
And if Iran tries to do anything to our ships, well, that would give Washington the green light to do what they want as a response (not too good if you’re Iran).




Now this is option number two, a US led air strike upon Iran.

As you well know the US has Iran completely surrounded, all of their sites are well within the range of our Missiles, Fighters, Bombers. Each number represents a US airbase in the area, the ocean represents where our ships would be.



In either option Iran would not respond with WMD’s because we would be using conventional means of attack, if they respond with WMD’s, well, you know the rest.

And it would be totally and completely illegal since the security council , via the reports of the nuclear inspectors can actually see that Iran is complying with the nuclear watchdog as the inspectors are at the palces the Israelies want to bomb.


now thats interesting - israel bombs the UN inspectors- how would the usa respond to that one?

if they support it them they become enemy number one as they would become the one thing they want to destroy - terrorism (apparantly)

And any war is illegal , but hey no change there then.

Originally posted by Harlequin
no , VX is american - other countries produce V Agents that are comparable or even nastier (russia for example) - its the way that its made and i put russia way ahead of teh usa when it comes to chemical weapons - most of there wat plans involved chemical agents of one form or anohter; the usa would rely on nukes , russia it was chemical bombs.

VX was actually invented by the British, I know there are other V agents but they are no more dealy than VX. Care to enlighten me as to what these other Russian chemical weapons are ?

If the US used nukes, then the Russians wouldn't be responding with chemical weapons. Nukes have always been the first WMD of choice - pound for pound nothing comes close to their destructive power.

The Soviets planned to use chemical weapons in any Western Europe invasion in some misguided attempt to avert a nuclear showdown. They also thought the AMericans had comparable stocks.

No they knew that the usa didn`t have anything like what they had - they would use the chem weapons in the first strikes - before the troops could get MOP4 protected; as anything beyond that wouldn`t be useful and would only contaminate the ground they wanted to take anyway.


news.bbc.co.uk...

iraq was working had VX gas but in 1998

and yes it was the brits in 1952 that invented it - but traded it to the usa for H bomb tech.

[quoute]Approximately 80 percent of the Russian stockpile is nerve agent. The specific agents in the Russian Federation stockpile are Sarin (GB), Soman (GD) and viscous Soman, Mustard (H), Lewisite (L), Mustard-Lewisite mixture, Phosgene, and Russian VX. Russian VX, generally referred to as R-VX, is similar to the U.S. variant, but has some structural differences in its formula. Additionally, unlike the VX in the U.S. stockpile, R-VX occurs in both thickened (viscous) and non-thickened varieties, requiring the destruction process to address both types effectively

[edit on 2/1/06 by Harlequin]

[edit on 2/1/06 by Harlequin]

...Iran is complying with the nuclear watchdog as the inspectors are at the palces the Israelies want to bomb.

What inspectors are you talking about? I think they have monitoring equipment at some sites, but I am unaware that they have actual inspectors at those sites 24/7.


[edit on 2-1-2006 by WestPoint23]

^^^ So the Russians/Soviets don't really have anything more potent than VX. Soman, Sarin etc were G-Agents produced by the Germans in WWII.

The US also produced thickened VX, obviously to make it more persistent. The US thought for a fair while that a Soviet chem weapon called VK-55 was VX but weas in actual fact just thickened Soman.

In October 1991, Vil S. Mirzayanov, a chemist who had worked for more than 25 years in the Soviet CW program, alleged that Moscow had developed a series of new and extremely lethal "third generation" nerve agents under a secret program code-named Foliant. His assertions were confirmed by two other scientists, Lev A. Fedorov and Vladimir Uglev. It was also claimed that Russia was working on developing new binary chemical warfare agents under the designation Novichok ["New Guy"]. Mirzayanov alleged that Russia intended to test and produce binary chemical weapons after ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention. He was jailed in 1992 and 1993, though the US protested his arrest and the case against him was dismissed. After the Mirzayanov scandal, this work was officially reported to be suspended.

binary nerve agents


ouch thats gonna hurt (literally)


westpoint:

news.bbc.co.uk...

thats from november - and its a visit to a military base.



edit: the inspectors might not be at those palces 24/7 BUT you cannot just get rid of tests easily , the evidence lasts for along time


[edit on 2/1/06 by Harlequin]

Israel wants to do this before bushehr nuke reactors are fueled to minimise environmental disastrous effects both on the oil ship route (the strait controlled by iranians) and the gulf states(ie. UAE, Qatar, etc.)
hat's why israeilis are seeking turks' support for this. the deal leaked out by german paper revealed that Turks are offered permission for a full-scale attack on PKK Kurds in iraq in exchange for Israeils using their airspace for attack on iranian nuke facilties.
However, Tukish president has ruled out any such deal, though. but never trust turks. us just doesn't want to take part, her hands are full with iraq. Israeils really want to do this before MARCH.
Us wants the attack to be delayed to after the referral of iran to UNSC. no matter what the outcome is, US/Israel will go ahead with the plan.
US will not directly participate in an attack, but it will allow IAF to use Iraqi airspace, something that will surely drag US into yet another war.

as soon as plants are fueled, bushehr plants will go off the plan.

I highly doubt any arab countries would participate in this plan. the fact that most of the arab countries' economy rely so much on oil, and iran has the tools (missiles capable of reaching oil wells in arab peninsula) to send them back to ottomon empire era.

asa IAF fighter appear in iranian airspace, iranians will react, swift and bloody retaliation.

1.intel. watchers have noticed that somehow israeils have got their hands on short-range (max range: 200 miles) solid-fueled missiles, too good for any air defences, guess who supplied them?
I guess these cruise missiles will be used on high-value targets like nuclear facilties,military facilities, etc.

2.And Iranian long range missile will be solely used to target populated areas like Tel Aviv, illegal settlements in west bank, etc.

I think, neither of the sides will use WMDs. It's a political,...,....,...,.., suicide.


RESPECT

thats from november - and its a visit to a military base.

edit: the inspectors might not be at those palces 24/7 BUT you cannot just get rid of tests easily , the evidence lasts for along time

Oh, I don't think they've tested or have a nuclear weapon ready, but what they do have it almost all of the key materials needed to produce a nuclear weapon pending the enriched uranium.

no , thats not what i meant - i meant the tests for the explosives need to correctly deform the uranium

those kind of tests (and other similar staged tests)


and i think they have a bomb or 6 allready , but if i was israel i wouldn`t want to find out.

[edit on 2/1/06 by Harlequin]

Originally posted by Harlequin



and i think they have a bomb or 6 allready , but if i was israel i woundl`t want to find out.

If you were Israeli, you probably really do want to find out. Israelis dont ignore threats to their homeland.