Iran's Real Plan

i posted the following on another thread, and got no response, so i'll try with my own thread.

please keep in mind that the following is just MHO. i have no proof to back it up. i would like other opinions as to why this is or is not a possibility.

i've been doing alot of thinking about this supposed iranian nuclear program, and i'm beginning to think they dont intend to use nukes on israel. i think they intend to even the odds so that a conventional attack is more feasible. you see, israel has made it very clear that if they are attacked en-masse, and it looks as though they will lose, they will use the nuclear option. this is probably the only thing that has kept the relative peace. but if iran has nukes, the israeli nuclear option is no longer feasible, as its whole point is to stop an attack in its tracks, and allow israel to survive. if the playing field is level, israel no longer has the option of using nukes, as they will be used in return. this makes it a completely conventional war....a war that israel could possibly lose.

the only caveat to this theory is whether or not israel, in the face of defeat would have the "we're dead anyway, lets take em with us" attitude. but theyve managed to survive as a people for thousands of years in other lands, they might have the attitude of "abandon ship and try again another time."

you guys think i'm totally nuts or what?

Originally posted by snafu7700
i posted the following on another thread, and got no response, so i'll try with my own thread.

please keep in mind that the following is just MHO. i have no proof to back it up. i would like other opinions as to why this is or is not a possibility.

i've been doing alot of thinking about this supposed iranian nuclear program, and i'm beginning to think they dont intend to use nukes on israel. i think they intend to even the odds so that a conventional attack is more feasible. you see, israel has made it very clear that if they are attacked en-masse, and it looks as though they will lose, they will use the nuclear option. this is probably the only thing that has kept the relative peace. but if iran has nukes, the israeli nuclear option is no longer feasible, as its whole point is to stop an attack in its tracks, and allow israel to survive. if the playing field is level, israel no longer has the option of using nukes, as they will be used in return. this makes it a completely conventional war....a war that israel could possibly lose.

the only caveat to this theory is whether or not israel, in the face of defeat would have the "we're dead anyway, lets take em with us" attitude. but theyve managed to survive as a people for thousands of years in other lands, they might have the attitude of "abandon ship and try again another time."

you guys think i'm totally nuts or what?

Not at all lol, I've been thinking this ever since it all surfaced, it just makes sense.
Iran hasnt invaded another country since the name of the country was changed, it would be the most sensible reason.

And I believe US and co knows this but are simply using the "they have nukes and we believe they would destroy the world" tactic to justify their actions towards maybe stopping the upcoming Iranian oil bourse which is believed will be a "bad thing" for the petrodollar.

I just don't think that Iran alone can defeat Israel in a convential war. For starters, they have no logistical way to get troops, tanks, etc. on the ground in Israel. They don't share a border, and they have US-occupied Iraq between them, and US-ally Jordan.

If its an air war, I still have to give it to Israel. They've got US fighters and probably better trained and prepared pilots. We're also overlooking the near certain fact that if Iran declared war on Israel, the United States would come to their aid. The only Arab countries that would consider joining the war effort on Iran's side would be Syria, and possibly Saudi Arabia. The latter of which the United States pretty much has in their pocket, as the House of Saud needs us to keep their current fragile grip on power there.

Syria and Iran, I feel, would be no match for Israel and the United States. However, I don't discount your argument that Iran is trying to aquire nuclear weapons to level the playing field with Israel. With the twisted minds of the Islamo-fascist Ayattolahs in power there, any motive is a possibility- no matter how insane or illogical it may appear to us in the west.

Now the problem that Iran has is that a handful of nuclear weapons, IMO, won't be enough to level the playing field with Israel. To the best of my recollection, Israel has at least 100 nuclear weapons and the proven delivery systems for them. How long would it take for Iran to create even a quarter of the amount of nuclear weapons that Israel now has. Years? Decade? Granted, Iran has the missile technology to launch a nuclear payload. But Israel has that as well as the ability to launch them via-submarine I believe as well.

I guess we'll just have to see how this all plays out.

I do not think you are wrong, Israel doesn't their position is no arab nukes, period, for just these reasons.

You hit the nail right on the head.
I see the issue exactly as you do.
Israels nuclear weapons have kepts the muslium hoards from pouring into Israel.
Without it, I am sure Iran and other muslium countires would make good on Irans threat to wipe Israel from the map.

BINGO!

You got it exactly!

I think that what Isreal is affraid of is that, they know that IRAN knows that they would have no chance against America and Israel... and with the opportunity to completely destroy Israel would Iran Take It?

I think they would, and it would be a very popular decision with the population of IRAN.


America, moreover the Neo-Cons wants to avoid war with Iran if possible...however they are more than willing to go to war now (if negotiations fail) rather than wait until Iran actually has the bomb, and brings war to them.

This is the same exact reason that we went to IRAQ. One day they would have terrible weapons and ISREAL and OUR OIL wasn't safe.

... so we went to war to prevent a Bigger War.

Maybe the neo-cons are right, maybe they do see the big picture.

But why ally ourselves with Israel? Why do Americans have to die to protect that little slip of land,... in Arabia?

Do they pay taxes to America? NO ... Infact OUT TAXES ALOT of YOUR Taxes Goes to support the Nation of Israel and its people. Why not just make them a state of the union...at least then they would pay taxes to us.

Let Israel Die... let the people of Isreal move somewhere in South America and create a New Isreal and everyone is happy.

Except I do believe that should Israel be overrun they would not hesitate to use their "Samson Option". If she is not for us, she is for nobody.

Rasputin13
How many nukes do you think it would take to level the field
Even one or a small handfull of nukes could devastate Isreal
or any small country if they were targeted to the correct
strategic cities/areas. Having 100 nukes or 10 nukes I do not
believe would make much difference, as opposed to having
1 nuke or 0 nukes. Simply having a nuclear option would put
Iran on the field of play. I'm sure that they know that the U.S.
would back Isreal if there was a war but I'm also sure
that if Iran had a nuclear option they would feel safer and
less voulnerable to preemptive strike from Isreal. Remember Isreal
is prone to sending there fighters to bomb nuclear sites in enemy
countries in order to keep them from developing that technology.
You are right that with 3/4 of the U.S. standing army already
on the ground in between the two that Iran would be foolish
to attack, but then again they don't have nukes yet (that we know of)
I think it is just a goal for them in the long run.

Originally posted by Rasputin13
I just don't think that Iran alone can defeat Israel in a convential war.

sorry, i should have been a little more specific. i didnt mean iran going it alone in a conventional battle, but only that it would increase the odds of a conventional war between israel and all its enemies if iran has nukes.

i dont think iran has any chance one on one against israel, either.

snafu
right on, Iran does not have what it takes as far as modern
military technology to challenge Isreal, and that is thanks
in large part to massive U.S. support, but simply obtaining
a nuclear weapon would be a deterent for anyone to attack Iran
as they have stated that they would use a nuclear optin if they had
it. In fact I believe they have stated that as soon as they developed
a nuclear weapon that they would use it on Isreal immediatly.
I think they have retracted that statement but it is still scary.

I agree Iran has no chance to go it alone, but what if they
had a nuke or two, and they were able to rally one or two
other countries (Syria, Egypt, ect.) to join them then there
would be enough military to take a shot at Isreal from all
sides, with the U.S. bogged down in Iraq and the likely rise
in the insurgency there if that were to happen. Then the
all the peices of world war would be in place.

Not something I would look forward to as big powers like
China and Russia both with substantial nuclear arsenals
looking on and salivating as we beat each other up

Iran can indeed beat Israel even without troops, we have 2 ballistic missiles that can do it and over 6 cruise missiles we made by ourself that can easily reach Israel and are within our range, We had a chemical weapons program since the time of shah and never used them on anybody not even the iraqis, i'm sure those chemical weapons are in Shahab-3's but dont you think if we wanted to attack Israel we would of already done it? we already are a nuclear power- THE END.

[edit on 29-10-2005 by NR]

Being a nuclear power is a lot more than missles. Its an elite club, and you need to do a test to get into it. Its not really about explosions after that first one, its about the new political realities.

Originally posted by Mainer
Being a nuclear power is a lot more than missles. Its an elite club, and you need to do a test to get into it. Its not really about explosions after that first one, its about the new political realities.

But the thing people dont understand is that Russia and China said so many times, any attack on Iran than they will support us along with our nuclear bomb and we will pull out of NPT and kick IAEA out, but see were cooperating with U.N and IAEA and have cameras all around our nuclear power plants to proove so, so are you saying you want U.S to attack so that we can start weapons grade uranium or choose not to attack and we do it peacefully.....

Originally posted by AlienChaser
right on, Iran does not have what it takes as far as modern
military technology to challenge Isreal,

NR
I am sorry if you were offended by my comment it was only my opinion.
I was not intending to pick a fight.

I think we could agree that everyone everywhere
would just prefer PEACE

Originally posted by snafu7700

the only caveat to this theory is whether or not israel, in the face of defeat would have the "we're dead anyway, lets take em with us" attitude.

Thats pretty much Israel's "Samson Option" The Biblical Samson, of course, brought down a temple that killed himself and his enemies. Thats pretty much the plan but with nuclear weapons. The ablilty to bring it all down on everyone in that region if ever they feel cornered, Even though Israel gets destroyed in the process. It's the ultimate in Israeli security as a nation-state.

I really do feel if they are pushed far enough and know they cannot win they will bring it all down.

Originally posted by AlienChaser

Originally posted by AlienChaser
right on, Iran does not have what it takes as far as modern
military technology to challenge Isreal,

NR
I am sorry if you were offended by my comment it was only my opinion.
I was not intending to pick a fight.

I think we could agree that everyone everywhere
would just prefer PEACE

Sure everybody have the right to voice out their opinion and i respect that, theres alot of threads i made regarding irans military capability which is the title, look forward into more friendly talks with you

Truthfully NR, I don't think its about the nuke specifically, I think the switchover to the Petroeuro is the real reason behind the coming war. Iran is not foolish country, a move like that against the dollar and I imagine they would best have a nuke or two waiting in reserve.

Expect the test to occur before the end of March. It would be a prudent thing to do.

yeah i know what you mean bro, U.S worried that Irans oil will start going into Europe which is currently now in France and Spain, I think what U.S should do is cooperate with Iran and have their own experts over there so they can also keep a watch on our nuclear powerplants, as you can see we have not even used any uranium what so ever and are fighting our way along...

Also Puttin had alot of meetings with Bush along with Chinas president and both told bush that there will be consenquences such an attack, Bush himself said there will be no military action against Iran because we got 2 superpowers backing us up and Russia knows Iran will one day take over middle-east as a regoinal power. Remember when Bush said hes gonna attack us but right after Puttins meeting he kept his mouth shut and denied such action...

[edit on 29-10-2005 by NR]

Wll I wouldnt believe what your government says, I don't believe what mine says, they all have secrets.

Its not just about the oil, by using the Euro as a oil trading currency they make break the domination of the dollar. By requiring that all oil using countries buy their oil with the dollar, the United States ensures that large amounts of its currency is held by other countries to purchase their oil. If this is no longer the case, than the dollar loses its necessity and countries stop stockpiling them. Economically this could be devistating for the United States as the other countries holding of the dollars is what enables the record deficit.

Petrodollars are a lynchpin of the domination of the United States around the world. The us government will most likely take action to prevent the rise of the Petroeuro.

The war will be about oil, but not so much oil use.