Hurricane Stan ( More Danger For Gulf )

Hurricane Stan ( In Bahamas Moving Toward The Gulf )




As of 11:00 a.m. Saturday, the twentieth tropical depression of the season formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea; a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche. Tropical Depression 20 was located near 19.3 north and 85.8 west, or about 125 miles east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico. The depression was moving to the west-northwest at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph and an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches.

The depression will track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night, then into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. We are concerned about development farther to the north and its future impact on the Texas or Mexican east coast ACCU WEATHER

We had better keep an eye on this one and pray we do not have a repeat as it moves toward the gulf.


[edit on 1-10-2005 by Harry55]

[edit on 2-10-2005 by RANT]

[edit on 4-10-2005 by RANT]

The following NOAA map shows forecasts movement over the next 24-36 hours:

external image

link to full sized image
img25.imageshack.us...




Equally interesting is this 120-hour experimental probability model for Otis -- to the right of Otis you can see the encroachment by TD20:

external image

link to full sized image
img25.imageshack.us...








[edit on 1-10-2005 by sdrumrunner]

(mod edit to reduce large images)

[edit on 1-10-2005 by pantha]

I'm confused, how is tropical depression 20 in the Bahamas and looks south of Jamaica and Cuba???

Did the circulation just reform in the Bahamas? If it did, does that mean all that moisture south of cuba will wrap around and come over South Florida. Bahamas is to the east of Florida, so how is thing moving from the Bahamas into the Bay of Campeche without crossing Florida???

unconfuzzle me please

Here you go WW .
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 1, 2005 2:02 p.m.



Tropical Depression 20 is becoming better organized and bearing down on
the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression 20 was located at 19.3 north, 85.8 west, about 110 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The depression is nearly stationary. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph, and the estimated minimum pressure remains at 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches. The Hurricane Hunters recently arrived in the storm, and have found winds of about 30 mph so far


ACCU WEATHER

This storm is almost stationary at this time. Everyones guess as to which way it will go.

[edit on 1-10-2005 by Harry55]

Hi All,

Here is a tracking map from weather underground:




Also, here are some images from NOAA:
infra red






water vapor:

This is one of the best satelite imageries I have found sylvrshadow. This one updates automaticaly. Underground Weather




This storm is looking more organized with each passing hour. The next report from NHC will be around 5 PM EDT.




[edit on 1-10-2005 by Harry55]

This is the latest 5 day wind forecast from NHC. They have moved this storm north just like I thought. The two systems coming together over texas will not be good for all the rain soaked ares from Rita. We are going to have to keep a close eye on this one .

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

[edit on 1-10-2005 by Harry55]

I dunno... looks like North America's got crazy eyes... or like Mother Nature had too much to drink...



Yep... Check it out... We're getting mad-dogged by North America:

Hi all,

I thought Id post some of Jeff Masters notes from weather underground. He seems to be pretty good. Harry55, what do you think??

Tropical Depression 20
Tropical Depression 20 is intensifying as it moves slowly towards the Yucatan Peninsula. More spiral banding is evident on satellite imagery this afternoon, and the storm now has two good outflow channels, to the north and the south. The wind shear has fallen significantly, and is now just 5 knots out of the east. The center of the depression is about 70 miles south of buoy 42056, which itself is about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. The buoy recently measured sustained winds of 34 mph gusting to 40 mph. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured peak winds of 30 mph in the southeast quadrant of the storm at 3 pm EDT today.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday, and will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday. It will then have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and TD 20 may be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. The forecast track is problematic, as none of the forecast models did a good job initializing this small and weak system this morning. Several models get confused about the identity of this system, and try to develop another tropical storm near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, and still keep this storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model suggests that TD 20 will threaten the northeast Mexican coast, but move northward and threaten Texas as well. The coast of northeast Mexico well south of Texas is the most likely target suggested by the rest of the models, but we won't have a good idea of where TD 20 will go until Sunday morning, after the 00Z (8pm EDT) model runs are available.

Bahamas ehh, Harry?

99L.invest finally got organized.
Looks like it may beat TD19 in getting the name of Stan.


click to enlarge



It's Mexico or bust, got limes for them cervezas?

This is from :Accu Weather sylvrshadow .
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 1, 2005 5:19 p.m.



Tropical Depression 20 is becoming better organized and bearing down on
the Yucatan Peninsula.
Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph, and the minimum pressure has fallen to 1007 millibars, or 29.68 inches.
The depression will track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night, probably briefly reaching tropical storm intensity before landfall. Even if the storm does become a tropical storm before landfall on the Yucatan, the main threat there will be flooding rainfall. It will then move into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. After that, the storm should gradually intensify as it tracks westward toward northeastern Mexico, and it could become a hurricane before making landfall. The potential is there for the track to be far enough north to impact southern Texas on Tuesday. Interests along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coastlines should monitor the progress of this storm carefully.

I will say this sylvrshadow, If I lived anywhere near the above areas I would keep an eye on this storm. Yes it will slow down tonight after crossing land then will be over the warm waters of the Gulf tommorrow with hardly any wind shear. Chances are good according to forecasts by all that this will become a hurricane before making landfall in Mexico or Texas. The storm does appear to be not very well organized but, reports say the central pressure is falling.
Assuming the tropical depression 20 becomes a tropical storm first, it will be named Stan. If the depression in the eastern Atlantic strengthens into a tropical storm it would then be named Tammy.

Whats your thoughts on this one Regenmacher ? Have you had time to check your sources out yet ? Yes we are back in the Bahamas and I sure hope this one does not cause any harm to anyone. I do have me a drink so I can be calm and relaxed if you know what I mean.
But I had not considered those cervezas with lime I may have to try that . Thanks, Harry.

Harry,

Due to an upper low to the west inhibating development, recent conditions are not entirely favorable for TD#20 to become a tropical storm before impacting the Yucatan jungle.

Once TD#20 runs through the jungle (have a CCR song stuck in my head now) it should become TS Stan. There seems to be enough ridging to the north to keep the system moving primarily to the WNW, towards Mexico.

Monday will give us a better idea if TD#20 reaches TS strength, since it's rather sketchy right now and model runs are all over the place. Current forecasts call for it to become a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche, although I not so apt to buy into that yet.

What a mess, it takes up the whole Caribbean.

external image

The early TD classification caught me by surprise too!

Here is the latest from Accu Weather
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 1, 2005 7:53 p.m.



Tropical Depression 20 is becoming better organized and bearing down on
the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression 20 was located at 19.2 north, 86.7 west, about 95 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico. The depression was drifting to the west-northwest. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph, and the minimum pressure has fallen to 1004 millibars, or 29.65 inches. A buoy located just north of the center briefly reported sustained winds of 34 mph this afternoon.
_________________________________________________________
Lets all hope this storm breaks up as it goes across the Yucatan peninsula and does not strengthen as it enters the Gulf . Tomorrow will give us our answer.

TD#20 banding increasing, it just might earn a name before landfall in the Yucatan. Its center reformed slightly south of the forecast track, so models are trending more toward the west as a result.

Looks like Dvorak T numbers going up support a marginal TS too.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

Originally posted by Regenmacher
TD#20 banding increasing, it just might earn a name before landfall in the Yucatan.

Yeah it's finally actually starting to look like a tropical system rather than a rorschach test.

Originally posted by sdrumrunner
I dunno... looks like North America's got crazy eyes... or like Mother Nature had too much to drink...



Yep... Check it out... We're getting mad-dogged by North America:







Yep, that is funny you saw that. It does looks like eyes. It is mad dogging the moon.

I've posted a thread in the Peak Oil forum discussing the potential impact of TD20 to Gulf oil supply, as the Bay of Campeche is resposnible for over 2/3 of Mexico's crude production.

Why does this matter? Because as of 2004 Mexico became the second-largest supplier of petroleum products to the U.S. (at approx. 1.6 million bpd). In a time of extremely tight supply, every little bit of additional shut-in hurts.

Map of Cantarell Oil Field:



Oil impact thread: here

As someone who regularly keeps an eye on energy markets, I for one will definitely be keeping the other eye on TD20...



[edit on 1-10-2005 by sdrumrunner]

Good for Texas according to latest stike probability. The 11 PM Update Discussion from Underground Weather said this about the storm :
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening through 72 hr while
the cyclone is over water...as vertical shear is forecast to be
light. The intensity forecast thus calls for the system to briefly
become a tropical storm before making landfall on Yucatan...
followed by weakening over land and re-intensification over the Bay
of Campeche. Even with land interaction...SHIPS calls for the
system to reach hurricane strength in 72 hr and the intensity
forecast follows this.

[edit on 2-10-2005 by Harry55]

[edit on 2-10-2005 by Harry55]

2 AM EST Report From NOAA

...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN...
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
6 MPH... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.