SCI/TECH: Global Warming Is Making Hurricanes More Ferocious?

Climatologist Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has released findings that show major storms in both the Atlantic and pacific Oceans have increased by half in duration and intensity. These findings are linked to increases in both average ocean temperature and global atmospheric temperatures. The results were concluded from actual storm data instead of relying on computer generations to predict future storms. The studydid not find that there is more or increased storm activity generated now or in the future by global warming.



Not all scientists are convinced of the study results and say that all historical data was not fully analysed. The results will appear in the online journal "nature" on Sunday.

2005 is the first time on record that the Atlantic Ocean has recorded four large named storms by early July.





[edit on 1-8-2005 by Mayet]

Don't know if this guy fudged his results a bit or not, but his conclusions are what one would expect from global warming simulations.

[edit on 1-8-2005 by Astronomer68]

Why is it that these so called experts always release their new found facts just shortly before their new book comes out? is it far to locigal to assume he is looking for attention knowing the book is coming out?

Divine Wind
The History and Science of Hurricanes coming soon to a bookstore near you (authored by you know who)Divine Wind

[edit on 8/1/2005 by shots]

Shots,

Funny how actually he is an 'Expert' and probably has more in the bank from his acedemic work that his pension would make him at least upper-middle class anyhow. Also funny how his funding is Independant. In the original Piece the other 'Expert' who is actually a government paid employee.

So just for a perspective of this mans Knowledge, Intelligence, and contribution to science and this field only, I quote the words of a 25 year experianced climatoligist mentioning Kerry Emanuel on a social blog:

One of the more interesting job descriptions that I have come across is that of a paleotempestologist. According to James B. Elsner and Birol Kara in their book: Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society, a paleotempestologist studies the occurrence and impacts of ancient storms from such information as unusual deposits at the mouths of rivers and in wetlands, and changes in vegetation patterns, particularly tree species. The term reportedly was coined by Kerry A. Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Sorry did I get that right 'Professor' of 'Atmospheric Sciences" (so the whole genre not just Climatolgy/Meteroligist. Well im sure the ph.d students who work so hard in the department see him as an 'Expert'. And once they have there Doctorates and feel important Dr. one in 100 of them may have the ability and understanding to make it to Professor.

Just to add something here too....its ot any old University....

MIT

pretty well respected. In addition 'Nature' does put all its articles to Peer review, and though that dosent mean his conclusions are right they must have a very very data led plausibility, before publication.

Looks like a good book im glad he spends his already hectic time sharing his 'Expert' opinions and knowledge and facts to the general public, in probably the most complex Scientific Field, in words and analogies that we can all understand.

I for one will be watching this research closely and look forward to the actual review of his study by other independant 'experts' to see what results they come up with, whilst as I have for the past 10 years will ignore any Government or Corporate influenced opinions.

MischeviouslyRainDancing

Elf

Allow me to completely shoot down this theory. The reason is that apples and oranges are being compared. Here are a list of reasons. Feel free to draw your own conclusions.

Prior to the deployment of weather satellites the discovery of hurricanes and tropical systems was incomplete. So the data at this point was thinner.

Older observations were thin and incomplete. Not taking in to account the satellite issue there is still the lack of dopler radar a few decades back.

Data collection finally came together and then Hurricane Andrew came along. For whatever reason the NHC felt it necessary to change their reporting methods. If you took a storm from 1980 and put it in today's world the NHC will report it some 20mph stronger than it was reported in 1980. No change to the storm. There was only a change in the way it is reported.

In 2004 there were 4 hurricanes that hit Florida. Not a single land or ocean based observation station picked up a wind speed anywhere near what the NHC was reporting.

This year a tropical storm hit the pan handle of FL. It passed right over a buoy when the NHC was reporting 70mph sustained winds. The satellite image didn't support that strength. The barometric pressure didn't support it and the buoy observation didn't support it. In fact the buoy didn't pick up a wind gust that hit 50. I think it barely cleared a 40mph wind gust.

Tropical storm Franklin didn't warrant an upgrade from a tropical wave to a depression. The NHC in their advisory where it was upgraded gave the storm really bad marks. I believe they stated they were unable to find a closed circulation. This makes the storm a wave. Not a named system.

The data since Andrew is no longer credible. You will find not a single observation of a landfalling hurricane that supports any NHC advisory. They are all greatly overstated.

These facts void the article that we are discussing. The data being used is severely contaminated and using it for the basis of any research makes for bad science.

This goes into the same basket as windchill numbers and tornados. A few years back the NWS came up with a new windchill system that made most reported numbers LOOK 20 to 30 degrees warmer than the old system. And with tornados the NWS has lowered the bar to include anything indicated by dopler radar. This of course makes the storms look more severe than they really are or would have been considered in the past. No longer is a visible confirmation required.

Just my 10 cents.

.
While it is easy to [over] interpret localized weather as having portends, angry God(s)/spirits etc.,

It does seem logical that raising the entire Globes by half a degree puts an incredible amount of energy loose in it. This is chaotic thermal energy and not organized vector/wind energy.

Hurricanes are caused by warming water that evaporates and essentially stagnates. If wind shear clips/clears-off the tops of thunderhead hurricanes do not form.
What causes Hurricanes

Some of the highest wind speeds occur on some of the coldest planets in our solar system.

We have been breaking 2 Centuries of record keeping where i live, sometimes by two degrees.

Not all the data is in But I think the Mule of Global warming is kicking us in the head.

When a freight train is coming your direction it is best to figure that out BEFORE the freight train arrives.
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I read somewhere that the weather is going to get worse over the next 5 years so this could be a reason.