Republican Debate and Primary Odds

The current odds to win the GOP primary:
*This is just one casino, odds will vary from casino to casino and change over time†
-325 Trump
+500 Ramaswamy
+750 DeSantis
+2500 Younkin and Scott
+5000 Christie and Haley
+8000 Trump Jr, Pence, Tucker Carlson

There is more of course but I dont think they are relevant. Obviously the odds will change, especially after the debates. I think it is safe to say there are some surprises. I will update the odds periodically.

Next page is some prop bets for Wednesday's (23rd of August) debate in Milwaukee.

a reply to: jrod

Redundant redundancy.

Yall crack me up

a reply to: jrod

Where can I find the odds of Biden not being on the November 2024 ballot?

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: jrod

Redundant redundancy.

Reopened.....as this thread is Odds for the entire party.

Here are the some prop bets for Wednesday's debate in Milwaukee:
*Odds subject to change

+400 Trump to hold and attend rally during the broadcast of the debate
+800 Any Candidate to storm off the stage before the end of the debate
+1500 A fly to land on Mike Pence's hair during the debate
+2000 Any candidate to trip and fall to the ground live during broadcast of the debate
+2500 Any candidate to have a wardrobe malfunction during the debate

Prop bet: First Mention of "Stolen Election" by a candidate
+1500 Under 1 minute
+1000 1.01 to 15 minutes OR 15.01 to 30 minutes
+800 30.01 to 45 minutes, 45.01 to 60 minutes OR 60.01 to 75 minutes
+700 75.01 to 90 minutes, 90.01 to 105 minutes, 105.01 to 120 minutes
Even odds : No mention to 'stolen election'

Prop bet: Most talking time(only top contenders)
+160 Ron DeSantis
+300 Mike Pence
+500 Vivek Ramaswamy
+600 Chris Christie
+700 Tim Scott OR Nikki Haley

I hope to update this post debate and will go over the winners if possible.

I personally think betting on Christie for most talking time is a good bet, we shall see. Tough call on the 'stolen election' prop but if i had to pick it would be 1 to 15 minutes.

a reply to: carewemust
I dont think any site has that exact bet. The site I'm looking at has Biden at -325 vs field at +230 as the DNC candidate. Not exactly a good bet either way in my opinion.

Newsom at +600, RFKjr at +1000 are the top 2 after Biden. Comically Michelle Obama is beating Kamala Harris +1200 to +1800.

a reply to: JinMI

So as always you have nothing to add..
Trump should debate though he has no idea of how that works.
But he would undoubtedly destroy.
Not a single candidate of the GOP will ever come close.
But he still should.

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: jrod

Redundant redundancy.

Yall crack me up

Please, let them keep going. This stuff is comedy gold. Trump has proven himself a god level troll of both parties. I haven't seen a president / former president, or any other politician troll both sides of the aisle at this level in my lifetime.

All they can think about is TRUMP 24/7. It's hilarious.

originally posted by: jrod
The current odds to win the GOP primary:
*This is just one casino, odds will vary from casino to casino and change over time†
-325 Trump
+500 Ramaswamy
+750 DeSantis
+2500 Younkin and Scott
+5000 Christie and Haley
+8000 Trump Jr, Pence, Tucker Carlson

There is more of course but I dont think they are relevant. Obviously the odds will change, especially after the debates. I think it is safe to say there are some surprises. I will update the odds periodically.

Next page is some prop bets for Wednesday's (23rd of August) debate in Milwaukee.

For those of us who don't gamble would you please be so kind as to explain what -325 and +8000 mean in terms someone like me who has never placed a bet can fully understand? I can only guess that it means Trump is has the highest odds of winning and primaries and Tucker Carlson, et al have the least chance of winning. Please don't make fun of me because I don't gamble and want to know exactly what it means. I would like to follow this but want to understand gambling code better so I can better understand this.

Thanks.

a reply to: jrod

What are the odds that nobody tunes in? If Trump isn't there what is the point? I wouldn't waste my time watching the 2nd string vie for the VP spot.

a reply to: The2Billies
Those are "American' odds and based on $100 bet.
+8000 is 80 to 1, if you were to bet 100 you would win 800p. (-) can get a little tricky, -325 is 1 to 3.25 or you need to wager 325 to win 100.

Basically Trump is a 3.25 to 1 favorite to win the GOP primary based on betting odds. I think this number wil start to dwindled.

It is interesting to note that DeSantis was effectively tied with Trump just a few months ago, so big swings are likely leading up to the primaries.

Just found out about Vivek Ramaswamy and very impressed. By far the best candidate on both sides. Goes further than Trump while being more uniting and smarter than Trump (or any candidate). Can defend Trump better than Trump can.. this guy is a straight up genius, not exagerating. The guy that is needed right now.

a reply to: ElitePlebeian

He certainly made some great progress. My concern with Vivek is his ties to the pharmacy industry inflating prices for great profit.

His rise in polls/betting odds the past month is impressive regardless.

a reply to: jrod

Basically Trump is a 3.25 to 1 favorite to win the GOP primary based on betting odds.

Thanks for that gem!
Cause you know Vegas knows

a reply to: jrod

He certainly made some great progress. My concern with Vivek is his ties to the pharmacy industry inflating prices for great profit.

Fair point. And I agree with it.

However, what is the best measure in a capitalistic society against this?

Bonus question: What keeps the answer above from happening?

Double bonus question: Does what Ramaswamay propose solve for the above?

a reply to: jrod

Post indictment #4:

Trump has about the same odds (≈ 30%) of winning the 2024 election as he does serving jail time. But Vegas Trump odds have never really been too accurate. Hillary had an 84% implied chance once upon a time.

So yeah, Trump will crush the others that can't follow the leader in the GOP. DeSantis fell off a competitive cliff trying to play keep up. So will most others. Including Vindaloo Ramaswamy. A non-christian GOP candidate? Don't see it, even if he says the right things.

If there's a legal way, indictment or not, the GOP is determined to reboot 2020. As are the democrats, with Biden getting an easier candidate anyway.

It's obvious this is going to be a holy war election. I'm wondering how much it dances around why Trump is popular. Just freaking say it. It needs to be officially declared. It's the halfway point, do it now.

Trump is the savior against the antichrist using the liberals to corrupt the minds of the children and take over God's America. He is the eschatology president this time around. That's what it boils down too.

Trump is a righteous savior archetype. Pence is Judas, the devil made him authorize the election. The elites gifted him 30 pieces of silver. It's disingenuous for everyone to dance around the religious undertones of this.

That's why nothing they can indict him for will matter. So long as he beats it in a way that allows him to remain politically active, he will remain popular and odds on favorite. As much as his character doesn't deserve savior notoriety he's playing the part effectively.

As far as Nov 2024 i say why not elect the ticket of Cthulhu/Lyssa and just get it over with.

Madness/Mania 2024!

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: The2Billies
Those are "American' odds and based on $100 bet.
+8000 is 80 to 1, if you were to bet 100 you would win 800p. (-) can get a little tricky, -325 is 1 to 3.25 or you need to wager 325 to win 100.

Basically Trump is a 3.25 to 1 favorite to win the GOP primary based on betting odds. I think this number wil start to dwindled.

It is interesting to note that DeSantis was effectively tied with Trump just a few months ago, so big swings are likely leading up to the primaries.

Thank you for your respectful and excellent reply!

a reply to: Degradation33

One of the few times the betting odds got it wrong was Trump vs Hillary. Historically it is one if the best predictors of who will win.

Preliminary odds update after the debate shows Trump lost some ground but no one else has yet to establish themselves as a clear front runner. However Ramaswamy and DeSantis are way ahead of the rest of the field.

*These odds are from one casino, other casinos will have different odds*

Trump. -265
Ramaswamy +600
DeSantis +700
Youngkin +2500
Haley +3000
Scott +4000
Christie +5000

I will update this weekend if there are significant changes The most notable right now is Trump went from a 3.25 to 1 favorite, to 2.65 to 1.

Sept 9th Updated Odds.
Ramaswamy losing ground. Trump is down by a tiny margin but still the overwhelming favorite. DeSantis gains tiny bit. Nikki Halley also is now ahead of Glenn Youngkin

Trump -250 (2/5) or 2.5 to 1 favorite
DeSantis +600 (6/1)
Ramaswamy +1100 (11/1)
Haley +2000 (2000/1)
Youngkin +2500 (2500/1)
Scott +4000 (4000/1)
Christie +4500 (4500/1)

I feel like Mehdi Hasan's interview with Ramaswamy's odds.