Shortages of Oil....and why it's such a huge problem.

Shortages are coming people, and it's time to accept that. Forget the geopolitical mess America is in- let's look at numbers for a second.

China: Population 1,306,313,812 (total, 2005)
India: Population 1,080,264,388 (total, 2005)
Pakistan: Population 150,694,740 (total, 2003)

from : en.wikipedia.org...

There we have three of the quickest developing nations on the face of the planet, who rank 1st, 2cond, and 6th respectively in population on the planet. Taken together, they comprise roughly a third of humanity.

Now, let me ask you a question...

How many of those people use fossil fuels? Enough, I'd say. But with the growing economies and trends towards a more Western lifestyle, I'd say that's going to jump. Now, imagine what about happen if an additional 15% of the adults in each those countries took up driving to work.

If that doesn't panic you, it should. It'll drive fuel prices through the roof. Now, of course, some of you are scoffing, saying things like "We have plenty more oil!" and "America uber alles!" . Well, let me give you another rhetoric question: how fast can that sweet sweet oil be sucked out of the ground? The answer is of course, not fast enough.

Eventually, it'll get to the point of rationing in my mind. Everyone needs fuel- to get to work, operate heavy machinery, portable generators. It keeps the civilian economy running. That'll keep governments antsy, of course. But tanks and planes and trains and helicopters need fuel, too. Governments would try to hoard it, driving fuel prices up and probably limiting overseas action.

So now what? With a fuel shortage, economies are slowing down, anxiety is up, and we have set the stage for the fall of information economies. What happens when terror cells suddenly make every piece of intellectual property they can get their hands on free and available to anyone?

The end of an oil-driven west is nigh, one way or the other. We can either play it nice and find new sources of energy, or we can suffer horribly.

DE

I think the more likely scenario is one where oil prices will stabilize at a very high plateau that will keep consumers in those developing countries out of the market. As it is today they their oil consumption stems mainly from their export oriented manufacturing sector which is composed mostly of westerns factories that were moved there. So what you have is a situation where factories that used to be located in the US and Europe were moved to those low wage developing countries, and now their oil consumption is growing accordingly.

Anyway, if oil runs out, needing fuel to get to work will be the least of our problems. Did it ever occur to you that we will run out of food? Without fertilizers, farming will be restricted to very few areas and that means that there won’t be enough food to go around to everyone. More on that in the article bellow…

The Oil We Eat

I very much doubt that developing countries would take getting the ant's share of the fossil fuels lying down. Particuarly, China and India are already on the road to Western style consumption. Economic sanctions could be in the cards, as could economic terrorism. Think about all the US's research adn intellectual property suddenly available, free, on the internet for anyone to use or copy or distribute as they see fit. now, imagine America in a state of economic distress due to rising oil prices. Can you say...massive civil disturbance?

War?

DE

That is, indeed, the most likely outcome of the current high oil prices. The prices are not sustainable in the long term as they will cause a reduction in oil demand as consumers in developing countries are pushed out of the market. They could also create an interesting scenario where alternative oil deposits, such as the enormous oil shale deposits in the southwestern US and in Canada, become profitable over the long term, resulting in an oil supply increase.
Shortages aren't really something I'm worried about. The real concern I have is just how hard these oil prices are going to hit domestic and international trade through increased shipping costs. It could easily lead to a worldwide recession, or, in the worst case scenario, a worldwide depression. But look on the bright side...if that happens, at least oil prices will drop like a rock.

My own feeling is that oil futures are significantly overvalued and the price of oil is due for a major downward correction.

[edit on 6-4-2005 by vor78]

AS I have stated, that downwards correction will probably be counterbalanced by increasing demand in developing nations.

However, as to shale/sand oil deposits, they are extremely difficult to process and extract fuel from, and costly to do so. It takes awhile to get devlopment of these sources going, and even then they seem to produce oil slower. I very much doubt they could do anything but staunch the inevitable tide for more than a year or two.

Here, I want everyone to think about this- how would this recession affect politics? How would the increased prices or flat-out deprivation of commodities affect the West? Think about it. Trade is down. Food and oil prices are frighteningly high. Not to mention the loss of jobs related to fossil fuel by-products, like plastics.

DE

en.wikipedia.org...
upload.wikimedia.org...

I found this, really quickly. It provides a good idea of what I'm thinking of. If you look at the chart, you'll see that we have passed the peak and are on the Olduvai slide. So far, I'm seeing a lot of Duncan's predictions comign true- increasing anxiety, properity despite rising prices of fossil fuels. I am unsure about 2012 as the start day for the cliff, as I figure that it will be sooner due to the rate at which the developing world is westernizing.

DE

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good posts

the reality is that oil will become so scarce and hard to farm that it will be too expensive to do so and therefore soon enough we'll have to not use oil for anything apart from the bare-essentials. cars powered by hydrogen or water or something like that will be on the market by 2012. the future needs to be cleaner using more solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy et cetera. if we want to move in the the future then why not do it fully rather than half assed. moving in to the future still using acient fossil fuels is laughable. we have the technologies today that we no longer need these fossil fuels...it needs everyone working together to get these solar plants, wind plants, tidal plants, more dams built to create cleaner, more efficient energy to consume. with the population more than ever before and growing day by day soon enough there will need to be a limit on how much energy each household can actually use.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Solid thread about alternative energy, and near the end, Off_the_Street brings up some good points about alternative energy- it's not really an alternative to fossil fuels.

Alternative energy is, right now, halfway in between a pipe dream and a crutch. Most methods (except hydro) provide either a very minimal amount of energy, are highly impractical, or both. Even alcohol is near useless, as transient brought it, for each calorie of food we grow, we spend one to three calories of fossil fuel energy.

It's not a matter of limiting energy, or rationing it. It'll still run out, there will hoarding and chaos. Our economies, our NATIONS are founded on cheap fossil fuel. The future will be cleaner, yes, but not the way you're thinking of.

DE

oh no, we are all gonna die, aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Doom and gloom. More doom and gloom and yet more.

There are no alternatives. Oil wil run out. We are all gonna die!!!!!!!!!!!!

yawn. Why don't you guys slit your throats now and get it over with. Cos obviously when oil runs out you're gonna starve to death. It's quicker and much easier this way. Yawn again.

There are more viable and more efficient alternatives to oil and always will be. You will never see them however as long as the world's economy still runs on oil.
Oil can't go above 5$ a barrel unless it is runing out, then we will all be using biodiesel and then hydrogen. So don't fret. As for that fertilizer rubbish, the best fertilizer in the world is called "rock dust". It makes huge vegetables full of essential minerals which we don't get when we exhaust the soil and artificial pump it up using nitrogen fertilizers.

Have you guys not noticed that there has been massive deflation for most products over the last 10 years or so? Clothes, food, electronics.
The only thing that has gone up is real estate. That bubble will be painful.

If the worst came to the worst, we would go back to pre-war farming which would mean more expensive, but nutritous food (unlike today). House prices would come down becuase the average Joes available income would go more on food (just like in my grandfather's day). There would be fewer electronics and "junk" being sold, just like in my grandfathers day.
Big deal.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Oil shortages are bad. We are already running out, and between demand rising quickly and oil production falling, we are going to feel it HARD.

Rock dust sure is nice, but the most common and inexpensive fertilizers are still oil-based. Read the "Oil we Eat" article provided, adn you'll see why that kind of farming will no longer be viable. Compare prewar populatiosn and modern ones. Do the math.

As for hydrogen, it's not as efficinet as you think, considering it takes more energy to get said hydrogen than we get out of it. AS for biodiesel:



From: en.wikipedia.org...

Let em get this straight- we're not going to have enough food anyways, so let's farm fuel....good idea!

DE

Yes, what you mention concerning that particular thread is correct. It is a well-discussed and thought provoking topic. When folks read what Off_the_Street mentions, please visit the first page and hit those links I provided.
They cover a wide range of issues and deep concerns.
Life After The Oil Crash





seekerof

This is a problem that we have known about for a long time. I pray that it will not lead to another world war if big countries start going after the last of the oil reserves.

I really do not mind the increases at the gas pump for Americans, we still get cheaper gas that Europe and still insist on driving gas guzzling machines. Maybe if it reaches $4 a gallon in the next year I will retract that.

Kinda hard to have a war when your war machines can't go anywhere. Think about it- your airplanes, boats, and tanks have to struggle to get fuel. Massive civil disturbance, world wide....VERY possible. Mad Max seems prophetic, if dramatic (though I know I exaggerate). What happens when the food riots are over? Who will grow food? There will clearly not be enough to go around, so perhaps there will a shift back to a more nomadic lifestyle.

DE

OK....I will hold you to that 'sort of' a promise.
Retraction pending...............................? (when, is all the question really is)

I think that if oil becomes too expensive and the world market fails then we should all go back to medieval-style community cooperation and self-sufficiency, it would probably be the best way to survive if transportation and communications collapse, thats why I play those historical society simulation games that show you how to run a medieval or ancient community, it may become a practical skill in later years

Well, better get my diesel engine converted to run on corn/vegetable oil. Great. Then I can drive about stinking like a chip shop. Still, if we regress to a medieval state of life I'll be the king of town in my vegetable oil velocipede!

Aces.