Over-flattening the curve only prolongs the suffering and prevents herd immunity

a reply to: SaturnFX

Well then I don't see why you'd make another redundant statement which has already been made here and responded to by me.

a reply to: Grimpachi

If thats the case then how effective would a vaccine be?

All I see with a prospect of a vaccine is more $ to big Pharma with nothing to show for it. I'm talking about side effects of all vaccines.

a reply to: Phage

From what Ive seen, its a bit abnormal in the summer. "Something" interfered with normal seasonal patterns. Im sure clamping down on movement for months, then letting it burst forth in riots had nothing to do with it Super high levels of stress, and a variety of things that compromise immune system undoubtedly have an effect as well. I expected this very thing without large scale riots & protests.

That said, hospital occupancy tends to run in percentages that arent particularly comforting. Everyone is just becoming aware of it now, but its a longstanding problem. 80-90%+ is pretty consistent in many locations, which doesnt leave much wiggle room.

Its been an issue in previous, recent pandemics as well. Its a tricky issue to address, though I do think temporary structures can play a very effective role.

originally posted by: TheConstruKctionofLight
a reply to: Grimpachi

If thats the case then how effective would a vaccine be?

All I see with a prospect of a vaccine is more $ to big Pharma with nothing to show for it. I'm talking about side effects of all vaccines.

It would be more effective than developing antibodies from getting sick. Some studies have been made and they believe only about 5% of those who come down with it actually develop antibodies in sufficient quantity to show up in test. So if a vaccine is developed that does make the body produce them where they show up in tests more than in 5% it should be a huge success.

There is no vaccine yet so we can only guess at what the result would be.

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Phage

From what Ive seen, its a bit abnormal in the summer. "Something" interfered with normal seasonal patterns. Im sure clamping down on movement for months, then letting it burst forth in riots had nothing to do with it

Super high levels of stress, and a variety of things that compromise immune system undoubtedly have an effect as well. I expected this very thing without large scale riots & protests.

That said, hospital occupancy tends to run in percentages that arent particularly comforting. Everyone is just becoming aware of it now, but its a longstanding problem. 80-90%+ is pretty consistent in many locations, which doesnt leave much wiggle room.

Its been an issue in previous, recent pandemics as well. Its a tricky issue to address, though I do think temporary structures can play a very effective role.

For example here in Georgia less than 20% of the ICU beds are occupied with COVID patients. Anecdotally one of the lab tech I talked with mentioned there has seemed to be more heart attacks and persons with high blood pressure and unfortunately episodes of domestic violence.

a reply to: putnam6

Rising hospitalization rates was 100% expected as they got back to a more normal operation.

Obviously, occupancy was very down for months. Everything from elective operations to fear keeping people away. Fear that is somewhat justified due to the prevalence of nosocomial infections...

Now, as they are returning to normal numbers, its being marketed as a "massive rise in occupancy rates!" In context of The Virus, and only The Virus, this can be spun quite easily.

IMO, it also obfuscates the longstanding issue of occupancy rates altogether. Im not sure how to "fix" that, though I have my ideas, but it doesnt seem to be a concern to most people if it doesnt involve The Virus. If it doesnt deliver that little bit of a dopamine hit or extreme emotion.. many people just arent interested.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

Evolution: "I gave you an immune system, use it."

Politicians and panicked panty waists: "NO!"

I've lived long enough to see what happens when "over protected" kids become adults. They're (on the whole) sicker than most adults.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Would you rather have the hospitals overrun by idiots who couldn't help but gather in large indoor crowds and the people they infect?

a reply to: putnam6


I think you will find smallpox only was bought under control by a vaccine.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

You provided no examples of any disease that does not have a vaccine.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder
Also to suggest you know these places herd immunity is utterly pretentious..

originally posted by: TheSkunk
a reply to: ChaoticOrder
Also to suggest you know these places herd immunity is utterly pretentious..

The trends are still holding strong despite the fact I made this thread several weeks ago. NZ still flat due to closed borders. Australia is currently experiencing a second wave greater than the first. New York state is still flat while other parts of the US are experiencing a second wave. England is still flat despite restrictions easing over the last month or two. These are facts of reality that you simply refuse to accept because they don't confirm your personal paradigms.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Yeah, here in Florida it is more than a wave. Tsunami would be a more appropriate term.

a reply to: Grimpachi

Florida is actually a very good state to compare with New York because they both have close to 20 million people.

Here is the most recent data for Florida:

And here is the most recent data for New York:

As we can clearly see, both states have experienced a massive wave but at completely different times. It looks like Florida some how managed to flatten the initial curve so much that a second wave was inevitable. Meanwhile New York is just sailing along in flat waters because they already experienced a massive wave which provides them with some degree of immunity. Regardless of how it's working, it clearly is working that way and anyone with eyeballs can see that. Australia is now also experiencing a massive second wave because we over-flattened the initial wave, but it's going to be much worse now because no one wants to shut down all business again.

Now we have to deal with this wave while at the same time trying to restart the economy. It puts more lives at risk because many people refuse to go back into isolation now, and I imagine a similar thing is occurring in Florida. Quite frankly I find it hard to have sympathy because it was clearly warned this would happen by many experts. All I can do is put my palm to my face and watch this absolutely ridiculous series of events unfold while clueless fools run around like headless chickens, acting like concepts such as herd immunity are just some imaginary nonsense despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder
Why do you keep saying second wave? For many places it is their first.

a reply to: daskakik

Because most places did have an initial wave even if it was small. For example you can see Florida did have a little wave back in April but it's dwarfed by the current wave, but I think I get what you're saying, the 2nd wave in many cases is the "real" wave that was always going to hit and was only delayed in some places by over-flattening the initial curve.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder
Not exactly.

Just because they had few cases while another place had many doesn't mean they had a small first wave. The first wave just might not have gotten there.

When you add preventive measures, that would minimize but prolong the first wave.

Still, the rise after the measures are eased is still part of the first wave, it doesn't make the period of time before that their first wave and this a second.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

3 to 4 weeks ago about 40 people died each day from covid. Back in April the average per day was around 50. At its height 83 people died in one day.

259 deaths posted today 214 yeasterday. The average last week was 126.

All the numbers atarted shooting up after the shutdown ended. The reason it was low before is because most big buisnessed had more sense than the govt. Disney shut down 2 weeks before any officicial shutdown.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

It's like a game of hide n seek. Everyone runs and hides taking it
for granted someone has to find them. But that isn't true at all.
No one has to look but you have to come out sometime.

I hope that helps.

originally posted by: DaRAGE
I just want people who go around saying words like "lets get herd immunity" and "lets open up for the sake of the economy"... I went these people to get infected, go visit their Grandparents (or elderly parents)

Ok. But ALL of my grandparents on both sides of the family are long dead, the last (maternal grandmother, specifically) died 6 years ago. She outlived the rest by over 20 years. Gotcha there.
And my dad is pushing 80, thinks everything going on and the hype is a complete crock of bull# based on knowing NO elderly that HAVE been sick, and he's suburban Detroit as it is, so he, if ANY OF YOU, should know a disproportionate amount of dead covid "victims".

Yet he does not.

Try again, Sam. Here's a quarter for the pay phone, find someone to call who gives a flying # anymore.