who and what are you going to believe. Big study from Calif. blows covid-19 lethality away

a reply to: daskakik

Then you have the deaths due to lockdowns?

UK government concerned over deaths that could be caused by Covid lockdown
One model suggests the restrictions may raise non-coronavirus mortality significantly

www.ft.com...

However, one minister said that a paper produced by a cabinet subcommittee suggested that the level of avoidable deaths could “be as high as 150,000 without mitigation” and “addressing that will play a bigger role on when to end the lockdown than the economic impact”.

Coronavirus: Expert warns lockdown is causing additional deaths

www.thetimes.co.uk...

So add in the economic suicide, the deaths and mental health issues caused by the lockdown, increase in abuse, increase in alcoholism, the virus is still spreading, the projected second wave, lockdowns were about not overwhelming the hospitals, Sweden shows for areas of similar population densities the mandatory lockdowns were overkill. And probably more harmful than helpful.

Their math while not precise was nonetheless solid. We’ve all known that the more testing that is done. The lower the fatality rate would be. Any quibbling over that is useless .

I saw something else that is bothering me a hell of a lot more .

The doctors talked about how self quarantining lowers our bodies immune system. They said it plain as day that when people leave quarantine we will be susceptible to more illnesses because of it .,

Boom there’s the second wave Fauci and all the rest have been talking about.

It’s almost diabolical .

a reply to: tanstaafl

Here you go, page 31:
www.cdc.gov...
Influenza and pneumonia ................. (J10–J18) 65,681
Influenza ......................... (J10–J11) 727
Pneumonia ........................ (J12–J18) 64,954

a reply to: daskakik

All for a virus where even the worse case model showed 98 percent of the population would survive.

What would be for the greater good again? Probably the path Sweden is down for 80 percent of the works.

a reply to: neutronflux
Good point. We can crunch those numbers when they are made available.

If they show the lockdowns where more harmful then good then so be it.

a reply to: neutronflux
Yes, that is why it was done.

Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference. Only time will tell. We are still in the process.

originally posted by: daskakik
a reply to: tanstaafl

Here you go, page 31:
www.cdc.gov...
Influenza and pneumonia ................. (J10–J18) 65,681
Influenza ......................... (J10–J11) 727
Pneumonia ........................ (J12–J18) 64,954

Thanks... great example of 'lies, damned lies, and statistics'...

Now, can you show me where and how they determine which stats that they will use every year when talking about flu deaths?

Which numbers did they use? Or did they just use estimates?

time.com...

The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic is sending people to hospitals and urgent-care centers in every state, and medical centers are responding with extraordinary measures: asking staff to work overtime, setting up triage tents, restricting friends and family visits and canceling elective surgeries, to name a few.

“We are pretty much at capacity, and the volume is certainly different from previous flu seasons,” says Dr. Alfred Tallia, professor and chair of family medicine at the Robert Wood Johnson Medical Center in New Brunswick, New Jersey. “I’ve been in practice for 30 years, and it’s been a good 15 or 20 years since I’ve seen a flu-related illness scenario like we’ve had this year.”

Tallia says his hospital is “managing, but just barely,” at keeping up with the increased number of sick patients in the last three weeks. The hospital’s urgent-care centers have also been inundated, and its outpatient clinics have no appointments available.

www.activistpost.com...

A recent Stanford University study confirms what we have already been told about the seriousness of the 2020 coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The study concluded that the virus is much more widespread and that a very high proportion of the population is infected with the virus. Nevertheless, most of the people who have it either develop “mild, flu-like symptoms” and recover, or they have no symptoms at all.

The study also concluded that the death rate of COVID-19 is even lower than previously thought, “an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%.”

So in other words, COVID-19 is very much like the regular seasonal influenza, which is also contagious.

reason.com...

Between 48,000 and 81,000 residents of Santa Clara County, California are likely to have already been infected by the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, suggests a new study by researchers associated with Stanford University Medical School. The researchers tested a sample of 3,330 residents of the county using blood tests to detect antibodies to determine whether or not they had been exposed to the coronavirus. If the researchers' calculations are correct, that's really good news. Why? Because that data will help public health officials to get a better handle on just how lethal the coronavirus is, and if researchers are right it's a lot less lethal than many have feared it to be.

Currently, the U.S. case fatality rate, that is, the percent of people with confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 who die, is running at 5.2 percent. But epidemiologists have known that a significant proportion of people who are infected are going undetected by the medical system because either they don't feel sick enough to seek help or are asymptomatic. For example, recent research in Iceland suggests that about 50 percent of people infected with the virus have no symptoms.

www.morningstar.com...

The effect that COVID propaganda and fear-mongering has on the masses is tremendous. The news media do not mention that most of the people who die from COVID-19 are elderly and not just elderly but those with preexisting conditions and weakened immune systems.

For some perspective, according to Morningstar, as of 2012 65% of people in a nursing home die within one year of entering the nursing home, and five months was the typical length of stay in a nursing home for those who died in a nursing home.

Like the Title of the Thread ....who or what are you going to believe ? I am confident some of this stems from politics, how much I am not sure of, but as time passes it is harder for me to have faith in some of the expert opinions that have been paraded before us on an almost daily basis.

There is much talk about reopening .... Unicorns and rainbows to follow... Where and how are people going to spend money if they are broke and even more in debt ? IMO recovery will be better than no recovery but it will take some time for things to reach a new normal for the economy.

For those who took the time to comment (either for or against the thread being relative) thanks for taking the time to respond and consider a different view of COVID-19.

One would have to be intelligent and "un-educated" enough, to understand the "mathematical" seriousness of the percentile/% loss, per capita...

It's not really that big of a deal. Compared to the "authority" government gains, by/outside the "law".

People die! Everything that lives, dies. That is a scientific, and historical, fact! Science "governed' by "emotion" or an "estimation" is not "science".

Fear, is not a good "scientific" "study". It never has been. Fear, is unscientific and un-godly. It doesn't prove anything!

a reply to: burdman30ott6

What's the 5th one?

a reply to: tanstaafl
Here is their explanation of why they use estimates:
www.cdc.gov...

and here are their estimates from 2010 thru 2019
www.cdc.gov...

Here is a page that shows deaths from flu is 6,515 although the pdf they link to shows influenza and pneumonia lumped together with a number of deaths at 55,672
www.cdc.gov...#

Here is the kicker, a slideshow about flu vaccination, on page 29 it says:

“Recipe” that Fosters Influenza Vaccine Interest and Demand (2)
3. Medical experts and public health authorities publicly (e.g., via media) state concern and alarm (and predict dire outcomes)– and urge influenza vaccination.
4. The combination of ‘2’ and ‘3’ result in:
A. Significant media interest and attention
B. Framing of the flu season in terms that motivate behavior (e.g., as “very severe,” “more severe than last or past years,” “deadly”)

childrenshealthdefense.org...

So... which bogus numbers are correct?

a reply to: 727Sky

Could it be that the vitamin D levels in Cali. are about the same as Australia and New Zealand, because of the sunshine, where New York are the same as Britain and Europe?

originally posted by: 727Sky
Like the Title of the Thread ....who or what are you going to believe?

I can believe them all.

The first is from a doctor in a hospital that was hit hard. I can believe that they were swamped.

The 2nd and 3rd were about a large segment of the population having been infected and not needing hospitalization. Totally believable, it is one of the reasons why the CDC says they have to use estimates for the flu.

The 4th is about the at risk group being elderly and/or having pre-existing conditions that cause complication. That seems to fit all the data coming in from different countries.

I think a slow opening up will be fine. Honestly, I think that after this scared-straight exercise most people will be cautious, and those who want to go around placing spit on things just for kicks will be called out.

originally posted by: Majic
So... which bogus numbers are correct?

Despite the loaded question, I'd say the CV-19 numbers.

The flu numbers are estimates and had an agenda behind them.

The CV-19 numbers seem to fit the numbers coming in form other countries and they don't have a dog in any infighting the US might be experiencing.

Where the previous bogus number is biting them in the butt is that everyone is going around saying flu kills 60K a year and this thing is the same.

I'd say that their reaction shows they know about the bogus flu numbers and that they know this new bug isn't like it.

a reply to: 727Sky

Just how does it blow the lethality away.

Initially the thinking was 2% - %5 mortality from the virus.

The raw numbers we had coming in were showing up to beyond %5.

These new numbers seem to show 2% again.

Honestly we don't have enough data to really know.

For the seasonal Flu we do - that is 0.5%.

So what's the bit 'blown away' again?

And remember the virus hasn't gotten started in rural areas.

a reply to: FyreByrd

BTW - it wasn't a big study.

Santa Clarita recruited people on facebook to be tested (not randomized).

In LA City they tested randomly I think at targets.

Granted LA is a big city but hardly representative of CA or the Nation as a whole.

On April 10 and 11, 863 adults in the county went to one of six drive-through testing sites to be tested using serology testing in the first round of the ongoing study, according to Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer.

a reply to: FyreByrd

signalscv.com...

There are over 10 million people in the county of LA and over 40 million in the state.

863 individuals (mostly self-selected) is hardly an adequate sample.

I believe the study is ongoing.

a reply to: 727Sky

I have been the ONLY one within my group of friends who from the beginning called complete BS on this clown show from DAY 1. Most of my friends simply listened as I provided them with basic mathematical equations to dispute the political narrative. They couldn't argue against it, however, they wanted to argue against it based on one thing alone.

Irrational fear.

Fear is the single greatest control mechanism there is. In the absence of critical thinking people will always revert to emotions to drive their survival instinct. If you can control their emotions then you control the person.

Now that we are well into this ongoing clown show more and more of my friends are now coming around to question the official narrative. However, they are reluctant to concede they have been duped because of the next biggest control mechanism.

Ego.

The human ego is so fragile in so many people today they find it impossible to say 3 simple words. "I was wrong."

Irrational fear and ego are the downfall of the sheep.

Thanks for posting this video.

a reply to: FyreByrd

The fact that is has become widely known most coronavirus numbers are being incorrectly calculated with nearly most deaths being attributed to coronavirus when we know this is not the case completely throws out any mortality rates period.

The only thing we know as "fact" regarding mortality rates is that they are incorrectly calculated and wildly inflated. Debating a falsely contrived mortality rate is meaningless.