Mortality rates for Covid 19 skyrocket !

A paper published in the lancet by six doctors including two who work with infectious diseases.

Just revealed some staggering findings.

We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.

That’s a big increase from the original 2% mortality rate .

Things might be taking a turn for the worse .

The new data needs to be monitored closely .


I know . “you told me so” Lol

Slow down. Take a look here: bibbase.org... It's pre-set for South Korea, so un-check that box and check US. Then click on "log scale" and "show death rates." On most every country you can see how the "sky rocketing" death rates have dramatically leveled off. This is constantly updated and is a good way to show differences over time.

a reply to: Fallingdown

Thank you for being open minded.

a reply to: Fallingdown

I would recommend not using anything from China as I am sure it is Bogus.

South Korea (doing it right) and Italy / Europe (who will more represent the US) are the ones to watch. Though we don't have long to wait ourselves.

originally posted by: clay2 baraka
a reply to: Fallingdown

Thank you for being open minded.

Read the post above yours

originally posted by: Fallingdown


A paper published in the lancet by six doctors including two who work with infectious diseases.

Just revealed some staggering findings.

We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.

That’s a big increase from the original 2% mortality rate .

Things might be taking a turn for the worse .

The new data needs to be monitored closely .


I know . “you told me so” Lol

Estimates for Case Mortality Rate (CMR) are all over the place right now for two reasons. First, not every country has equally good health treatment capability and second, not every country has equally good testing. If you don’t have enough ICUs, ventilators, etc. in a given area, a higher fraction of the people who get to the serious stage aren’t going to make it. At this point, the bigger factor in the uncertainty is probably the testing. South Korea has tested more than one thousand residents per million residents, while the US has tested less than ten per million. That means their statistics are a whole hell of a lot more believable than ours, and they are converging on a true CFR of 0.6%. That’s still about 6x the rate for seasonal flu.

COVID-19 looks to be at least 2x more contagious than seasonal flu and perhaps 4x faster in spreading, so the total percentage of the population infected is almost certain to end up beIng a lot more than seasonal flu, as well.

a reply to: Fallingdown

This will be interesting because we now have reliable public health networks reporting numbers. I would expect an initial increase because of vulnerable populations being easy to track until systems get overloaded.

We still have no reliable data on mild infections anywhere, how can we possibly detect and report those numbers? Most people are told to stay home, no test, they resolve and move on just like with a seasonal illness. Estimates come later once they go back and analyze data like with the Swine Flu.

I just hope they categorize everything properly, if it gets bad they could quickly classify death as sepsis or viral pneumonia, maybe even a different respiratory disease and move on. We're not even there yet but it's coming over the next few months.

This death rate, is it worldwide? Or just the states? You cannot compare the healthcare system and level of hygiene of the western world with the likes of China or Iran. I think the WHO is combining it all.

When you have a cough, do you get tested? Only the ‘more severe’ cases get tested (fact here in the Netherlands), the less severe cases stay under the radar. This will push up the deathrate also. (In the Netherlands we have about 1100 confirmed cases, but an estimate of our CDC, says it must be over 6000, so mortality rate would be a 6 times lower when people would actually be tested)

Countries like China, Iran, North Korea will purposely misdiagnose actual infected people. This will also influence the death rate. Russia too!

Add in, that the scientists just discovered that there are 2 strings of this virus, both with a different ‘aggressiveness’.


In almost all cases the numbers look worse than they actually are in reality. The are just statistics, not facts!

And: the highest chance of dying of this is in the same risk-group for the flu. The rest will be fine.

a reply to: Phage

disclosure: I don't actually own an iPhone

.

Must suck to be you ? 🤣✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️

Sigh

a reply to: Fallingdown

I've been following the mortality rate of any given area based upon current known numbers, and posted several here. Largest I've seen in 7%, but averages are 2-3.5, again with outliers upwards of 6-7.

I have a hard time believing in a 20% rate.

That said, if not handled and contained, the higher estimates could be a reality.

Hearing Seattle is almost at capacity/overwhelmed, and NYC is not far behind (in a week) if additional measures aren't taken.

a reply to: Fallingdown

I know . “you told me so” Lol

Pride in these kinds of events are what gets people in trouble. Props for keeping an open mind, and continuing to reevaluate what we're dealing with.

I don't know how bad it is, or going to be... Personally as younger healthy guy, I'm not changing my day to day.

But I do think people should keep their eyes on it, and especially those who are at risk.

I don't think many really know much about this. We only have a few weeks of data to go off of from transparent countries. But there are definitely examples of small communities like in Italy for example that have had their health care system hit hard with a sudden influx. Hopefully that's something we'll be able to manage.

Again, it's using the ***confirmed** infections. Even in China, there wasn't enough test kits and they weren't testing everyone, so it's really hard to know the true figure.

Korea did try to take a random sample and they came in under 1%.

originally posted by: schuyler
Slow down. Take a look here: bibbase.org... It's pre-set for South Korea, so un-check that box and check US. Then click on "log scale" and "show death rates." On most every country you can see how the "sky rocketing" death rates have dramatically leveled off. This is constantly updated and is a good way to show differences over time.

Thank you. Title is very misleading. This is hardly skyrocketing, in fact, deaths are leveling off.

OP, why do you have a misleading title?

a reply to: Fallingdown

The published Chinese figures don't seem to match what are coming to light now. The reason is not that they were covering up the truth, but rather that most cases were so mild symptomatically, that the true cases were unreported to authorities.

This actually lowers the overall mortality rate.

Also, the mortality rates in other countries are lower (but the spread faster) probably due to the lower pollution and the prevalence of smoking in China, but it may be that there is more than one strain of Covid-19.

The people of Beijing were estimating that about 85% of the the residents of Wuhan are dead. This was before they shut the internet down.

My friend in Italy is saying the death toll is way higher than 3000 now and everyone is freaking out.

We all know the media lies to us. We all know the CDC and WHO are evil organizations.

Why the hell does anyone trust the numbers you are hearing from them?

Most people have a super arrogant and egotistical mind set to this in America. I don't think they know what is about to hit them.

Here in Utah over night it went from not knowing anyone with virus to knowing 5 people. I think it's about to get really bad here.

originally posted by: Daughter2
Again, it's using the ***confirmed** infections. Even in China, there wasn't enough test kits and they weren't testing everyone, so it's really hard to know the true figure.

Korea did try to take a random sample and they came in under 1%.

True.

But even with H1N1, it was only until later (the next year) when the true scope of infection and deaths were realized.

2010

With South Korea, they had a drastic and comprehensive testing plan which likely helped lessen the severity and flatten the curve.

NPR:South Korea's Drive-Through Testing For Coronavirus Is Fast — And Free

Drive-through centers have helped South Korea do some of the fastest, most-extensive testing of any country. And while nobody is claiming that South Korea has defeated the outbreak, experts credit the emphasis on testing with reducing case numbers and fatalities.




A nation of 51 million, South Korea has tested about 250,000 people since its outbreak began on Jan. 20, with a daily capacity of 15,000. It has conducted 3,600 tests per million people compared to five per million in the U.S.

South Korea's aggressive testing may make it unnecessary to impose the sort of lockdowns to which China and Italy have resorted, although health officials insist that all options remain on the table in dealing with the epidemic.

WHy is the US so far behind?

This is just a living example of what you can do with statistics.

How many people have died in the USA? 50? Honestly, I'm asking because I don't pay much attention anymore. Statistically, of those 50, how many had pre-existing conditions or are people over the age of 65? The only news now is about coranavirus but no one is taking a complete look.

This is a test to see how easy it is to manipulate the masses, on a global scale, to believe they are facing impending doom. Instill fear and uncertainty. Chaos ensues, people will kill each other for a roll of toilet paper. World population is reduced. The planet is saved from human influence.

Good night.

a reply to: LogicalGraphitti

on a global scale, to believe they are facing impending doom.

That is not the message. Actually.