a reply to:
Zaphod58
exactly
Starship Mk1 prototype was destroyed during an initial pressure test. SpaceX expected this and did it more or less intentionally, at least they said
as much.
Mk2 was abandoned before Mk1 failed. Mk4 was also stopped when the Starship development was consolidated in Texas.
Mk3 became SN1 and was scrapped after it failed a cryogenic pressure test.
SN2 past pressurization tests and was retired.
SN3 was destroyed due to a test configuration error. They unintentionally depressured the oxygen tank and the vehicle crumbled. Parts of it were
reused in SN4.
SN4 past pressure tests and completed five static fire tests before it blew up. Cause is still unknown, but it may very well be a ground equipment
failure, not a design issue.
So they are clearly making progress. Do they make mistakes? Yes, the loss of SN3 was just stupid and avoidable, and arguably set the program back, say
two or three... weeks.
And that's just it, so what if they are building these water towers on steroids in less then optimal conditions. As long as they keep improving, don't
kill anybody, and keep building another prototype in less than a month they'll get there before the end of the year. It's completely different from
how anyone else does it and the process does have some drawbacks, but the payoff will be enormous.
Also, keep in mind, SpaceX still is mostly focused on Crewed Dragon. Musk has said the development of Starship is actually slowed down because most of
their engineers are focussed on making sure Demo-2 goes off without a hitch.
If Demo-2 is launched successfully developments in Texas will actually speed up even more.
So it's even not entirely unreasonable to assume they launch a Starship into orbit this year. But obviously, a lot can happen between now and then.