Extreme solar storms may be more frequent than previously thought

Most of us have heard of the dreaded Carrington Event which was caused by a an outburst of solar plasma (coronal mass ejection) directed at earth from our star the sun. If the stories are true, Telegraph wire were fried and even fires were started and this happened in 1859.. All I can say is if the same thing happened today the sun facing side of the planet and all the electrical infrastructure would probably be largely, mostly, burnt toast.


Evidently the actual Carrington event was the end of preceding coronal mass ejections which had already weakened earth's magnetic field.

The newly recovered historical documents suggest the Carrington sunspot group had probably launched multiple outbursts from early August to early October, including a preceding solar storm in late August 1859. The researchers estimate this event happened around August 27th, 1859 and sent out separate coronal mass ejections that were strong enough to impact Earth's magnetic field. The August storm may have played a role in making the September Carrington Event so intense.

After reconstructing the storms around the Carrington Event, the researchers compared the solar storm to other storms in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 and found two of them—those in 1872 and 1921—were comparable to this event. The 1989 event caused a serious blackout throughout all of Quebec, Canada. This means events like the Carrington may not be as legendary and elusive as once thought, and scientists need to consider the hazards of such events more seriously than before, according to Hayakawa.

"While the 1859 storm was certainly one of the most extreme events, this seems at best comparable to the 1872 storm and 1921 storm in terms of its intensity," he said. "So, the Carrington event is no longer something unique. This fact may require us to reconsider the occurrence frequency of this kind of 'worst-case scenario' of space weather events."

phys.org...

a reply to: 727Sky

Bury the damn cables already. That is the first step.

Makes lots of sense in the modern warfare scenario as well.

At this time, it does not take much effort to destabilize an electrical grid. In warfare it is currently an easy target.

Those who do not learn from the pages of history will no doubt repeat it themselves.

P

Hopefully the nuclear facilities Globally are prepared to prevent global domino effect shut down if similar event happens.

a reply to: 727Sky

originally posted by: Ophiuchus 13
Hopefully the nuclear facilities Globally are prepared to prevent global domino effect shut down if similar event happens.

a reply to: 727Sky

I have heard after the fuel for the emergency generators runs out (3 to 4 days) they are not in a good safe mode; and that is if the cables from the Generators are still functional... Maybe B.S. maybe true and I for one hope we never have to find out.

a reply to: pheonix358

Bury the damn cables already. That is the first step.

Wouldn't do a thing.

The problem with geomagnetic storms and electrical grids is the magnetic part. Burying cables won't help with that. Those low frequency currents are induced in underground systems the same way they are in those above ground.

Ironically, the simplest thing to do would be to turn the grid off when a strong event is expected. And we are now capable of knowing when that will happen with enough time to do so.

a reply to: Phage

Even with the grid off, would the storm not still be able to induce a current in all electronics, circuit boards and things like that?
Surely all the cellphones and computers that were facing the storm would be ‘fried’?

a reply to: Breakthestreak

No.

A geomagnetic storm (the thing that causes problems for electric grids) is a disruption of Earth's magnetic field. The arrival of a CME causes the field to wiggle. That wiggle causes induced currents in long conductors (powerlines, pipelines, fences). Those low frequency currents (effectively DC) don't get along well with the AC currents which the transformers are dealing with. That's why turning off the AC power would prevent, or minimize, damage.

It is not an EMP. No effect on small circuits unless they happen to be plugged in to the grid at the time. And even then, the charger might get fried but the device would be fine. An EMP is a whole other thing.

a reply to: Phage

I was just reading that. You’re right.
Then in an article on quora it said “but a super solar storm.......”

I always thought a burst of magnetism from the sun was what caused magnetic induction in the Carrington event.

So if it’s just the wobble effect of our own field. You think a massive CME could effect small electronics on a calamitous scale like some people believe?

a reply to: Breakthestreak

You think a massive CME could effect small electronics on a calamitous scale like some people believe?

No.
It's not the amplitude of the effect that would cause that. It's the frequency. In order for short conductors to be affected it would require high frequency fluctuations.

On the other hand, a massive Solar flare (not the same as a CME) might present problems (like gamma radiation) which would make you not really care if your phone stopped working because you would be quite dead. Our Sun doesn't seem to be prone to doing that sort of thing, but you never know.

a reply to: Phage

I’ve always thought of the next ‘Carrington’ to be an imminent and very likely danger that civilisation wasn’t really prepared for.

But now it’s kinda ‘meh, just turn the switch off’.

Cheers Phage

a reply to: Breakthestreak

The potential for damage is there. But it's not as if we don't know about it.